Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District on May 19, 2026, defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie by a margin of approximately 9.8 percentage points. President Donald Trump's endorsement of the former Navy SEAL and farmer, combined with substantial outside spending that made the contest the costliest House primary in history, aligned GOP voters behind the challenger amid frustration with Massie's record of opposing Trump-backed priorities. Official results and concession statements have produced near-certain trader consensus on a victory exceeding nine points. A narrow shift in certified totals through recount procedures or late-absentee ballot adjustments remains the primary scenario that could alter the exact margin category.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于加尔雷恩9%+ 99.0%
Gallrein 3-6% <1%
加尔雷恩 6-9% <1%
Gallrein <3% <1%
$189,845 交易量
$189,845 交易量
2026-05-19
加尔雷恩9%+
99%
加尔雷恩 6-9%
1%
Gallrein 3-6%
1%
Gallrein <3%
1%
Massie <3%
<1%
Massie 3-6%
<1%
Massie 6%+
<1%
Other
<1%
加尔雷恩9%+ 99.0%
Gallrein 3-6% <1%
加尔雷恩 6-9% <1%
Gallrein <3% <1%
$189,845 交易量
$189,845 交易量
2026-05-19
加尔雷恩9%+
$123,049 交易量
99%
加尔雷恩 6-9%
$11,584 交易量
1%
Gallrein 3-6%
$7,587 交易量
1%
Gallrein <3%
$5,422 交易量
1%
Massie <3%
$9,574 交易量
<1%
Massie 3-6%
$17,988 交易量
<1%
Massie 6%+
$13,664 交易量
<1%
Other
$977 交易量
<1%
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District on May 19, 2026, defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie by a margin of approximately 9.8 percentage points. President Donald Trump's endorsement of the former Navy SEAL and farmer, combined with substantial outside spending that made the contest the costliest House primary in history, aligned GOP voters behind the challenger amid frustration with Massie's record of opposing Trump-backed priorities. Official results and concession statements have produced near-certain trader consensus on a victory exceeding nine points. A narrow shift in certified totals through recount procedures or late-absentee ballot adjustments remains the primary scenario that could alter the exact margin category.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市场开放时间： May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ET
交易量
$189,845结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District on May 19, 2026, defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie by a margin of approximately 9.8 percentage points. President Donald Trump's endorsement of the former Navy SEAL and farmer, combined with substantial outside spending that made the contest the costliest House primary in history, aligned GOP voters behind the challenger amid frustration with Massie's record of opposing Trump-backed priorities. Official results and concession statements have produced near-certain trader consensus on a victory exceeding nine points. A narrow shift in certified totals through recount procedures or late-absentee ballot adjustments remains the primary scenario that could alter the exact margin category.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$189,845结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District on May 19, 2026, defeating seven-term incumbent Thomas Massie by a margin of approximately 9.8 percentage points. President Donald Trump's endorsement of the former Navy SEAL and farmer, combined with substantial outside spending that made the contest the costliest House primary in history, aligned GOP voters behind the challenger amid frustration with Massie's record of opposing Trump-backed priorities. Official results and concession statements have produced near-certain trader consensus on a victory exceeding nine points. A narrow shift in certified totals through recount procedures or late-absentee ballot adjustments remains the primary scenario that could alter the exact margin category.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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