Recent polling shows Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass locked in a tight three-way contest with City Councilmember Nithya Raman and challenger Spencer Pratt heading into the June 2 primary, with support levels clustered in the low-to-mid 20s among likely voters and large numbers of undecideds earlier in the cycle. Voter frustration over the pace of wildfire recovery, homelessness, and city services has boosted both the progressive and outsider candidacies, preventing any candidate from establishing a clear lead. The resulting fragmentation keeps implied probabilities for Bass securing a narrow first-round victory clustered near even odds while elevating the chance that Pratt or Raman finishes first or forces a runoff. Late endorsements and final campaign pushes could still shift turnout among key blocs before ballots are counted.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Bass 5–10% 29%
Bass 0–5% 28%
Pratt Wins 20%
Raman Wins 9.0%
$41,989 交易量
$41,989 交易量
2026-06-02
Bass 0–5%
28%
Bass 5–10%
29%
Bass 10–15%
9%
Bass 15%+
7%
Pratt Wins
20%
Raman Wins
9%
Other
<1%
Bass 5–10% 29%
Bass 0–5% 28%
Pratt Wins 20%
Raman Wins 9.0%
$41,989 交易量
$41,989 交易量
2026-06-02
Bass 0–5%
$1,074 交易量
28%
Bass 5–10%
$1,045 交易量
29%
Bass 10–15%
$2,031 交易量
9%
Bass 15%+
$2,091 交易量
7%
Pratt Wins
$18,905 交易量
20%
Raman Wins
$9,081 交易量
9%
Other
$7,761 交易量
<1%
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling shows Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass locked in a tight three-way contest with City Councilmember Nithya Raman and challenger Spencer Pratt heading into the June 2 primary, with support levels clustered in the low-to-mid 20s among likely voters and large numbers of undecideds earlier in the cycle. Voter frustration over the pace of wildfire recovery, homelessness, and city services has boosted both the progressive and outsider candidacies, preventing any candidate from establishing a clear lead. The resulting fragmentation keeps implied probabilities for Bass securing a narrow first-round victory clustered near even odds while elevating the chance that Pratt or Raman finishes first or forces a runoff. Late endorsements and final campaign pushes could still shift turnout among key blocs before ballots are counted.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市场开放时间： May 15, 2026, 3:02 PM ET
交易量
$41,989结束日期
2026-06-02市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 3:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling shows Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass locked in a tight three-way contest with City Councilmember Nithya Raman and challenger Spencer Pratt heading into the June 2 primary, with support levels clustered in the low-to-mid 20s among likely voters and large numbers of undecideds earlier in the cycle. Voter frustration over the pace of wildfire recovery, homelessness, and city services has boosted both the progressive and outsider candidacies, preventing any candidate from establishing a clear lead. The resulting fragmentation keeps implied probabilities for Bass securing a narrow first-round victory clustered near even odds while elevating the chance that Pratt or Raman finishes first or forces a runoff. Late endorsements and final campaign pushes could still shift turnout among key blocs before ballots are counted.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$41,989结束日期
2026-06-02市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 3:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass locked in a tight three-way contest with City Councilmember Nithya Raman and challenger Spencer Pratt heading into the June 2 primary, with support levels clustered in the low-to-mid 20s among likely voters and large numbers of undecideds earlier in the cycle. Voter frustration over the pace of wildfire recovery, homelessness, and city services has boosted both the progressive and outsider candidacies, preventing any candidate from establishing a clear lead. The resulting fragmentation keeps implied probabilities for Bass securing a narrow first-round victory clustered near even odds while elevating the chance that Pratt or Raman finishes first or forces a runoff. Late endorsements and final campaign pushes could still shift turnout among key blocs before ballots are counted.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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