Lee Jae-myung has served as South Korea’s president since winning the June 2025 snap election following the impeachment and removal of his predecessor. His Democratic Party holds a commanding National Assembly majority, approval ratings have remained near 60 percent through early 2026, and the opposition remains weakened by its association with the prior administration’s crisis. These factors create high structural barriers to any successful removal effort before year-end, aligning with the market’s 90.9 percent probability that he will not be out of office in 2026. No legislative or judicial developments in the past month have altered this positioning, and scheduled local elections later in June are expected to further consolidate his party’s position.