Julia Letlow advanced to the June 27 Republican runoff after leading the May 16 primary with roughly 45 percent of the vote, ahead of state Treasurer John Fleming at 28 percent and incumbent Senator Bill Cassidy at 25 percent. Her commanding position in the market reflects strong voter support in key Republican parishes, an endorsement from President Trump, and Cassidy’s concession following the primary results. Fleming remains the only other candidate on the runoff ballot, though recent polling shows Letlow maintaining double-digit leads. Traders view her frontrunner status as durable given the primary momentum and limited time before the runoff, though a significant shift in voter turnout or unexpected campaign developments could still narrow the gap.