France's prolonged parliamentary deadlock, stemming from the 2024 snap legislative elections and resulting hung National Assembly, has produced repeated prime ministerial resignations and failed confidence votes, yet President Emmanuel Macron has consistently rejected early departure. His term runs until May 2027 under constitutional term limits, and he has publicly reaffirmed plans to complete it while ruling out resignation despite opposition calls and budget gridlock. Recent developments include the short-lived Lecornu government in late 2025 and Macron's January 2026 address referencing his scheduled exit the following year. Traders assign very low probability to his departure before the June 30, 2026 resolution date, reflecting the absence of viable constitutional or political mechanisms to force an earlier transition absent unforeseen crises.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,004,976 交易量
2026-06-30
分组项标题：2026年6月30日
1%
$2,004,976 交易量
分组项标题：2026年6月30日
$413,140 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between October 6, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.France's prolonged parliamentary deadlock, stemming from the 2024 snap legislative elections and resulting hung National Assembly, has produced repeated prime ministerial resignations and failed confidence votes, yet President Emmanuel Macron has consistently rejected early departure. His term runs until May 2027 under constitutional term limits, and he has publicly reaffirmed plans to complete it while ruling out resignation despite opposition calls and budget gridlock. Recent developments include the short-lived Lecornu government in late 2025 and Macron's January 2026 address referencing his scheduled exit the following year. Traders assign very low probability to his departure before the June 30, 2026 resolution date, reflecting the absence of viable constitutional or political mechanisms to force an earlier transition absent unforeseen crises.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 14, 2025, 5:20 PM ET
交易量
$2,004,976结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2025, 5:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between October 6, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.France's prolonged parliamentary deadlock, stemming from the 2024 snap legislative elections and resulting hung National Assembly, has produced repeated prime ministerial resignations and failed confidence votes, yet President Emmanuel Macron has consistently rejected early departure. His term runs until May 2027 under constitutional term limits, and he has publicly reaffirmed plans to complete it while ruling out resignation despite opposition calls and budget gridlock. Recent developments include the short-lived Lecornu government in late 2025 and Macron's January 2026 address referencing his scheduled exit the following year. Traders assign very low probability to his departure before the June 30, 2026 resolution date, reflecting the absence of viable constitutional or political mechanisms to force an earlier transition absent unforeseen crises.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$2,004,976结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2025, 5:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...France's prolonged parliamentary deadlock, stemming from the 2024 snap legislative elections and resulting hung National Assembly, has produced repeated prime ministerial resignations and failed confidence votes, yet President Emmanuel Macron has consistently rejected early departure. His term runs until May 2027 under constitutional term limits, and he has publicly reaffirmed plans to complete it while ruling out resignation despite opposition calls and budget gridlock. Recent developments include the short-lived Lecornu government in late 2025 and Macron's January 2026 address referencing his scheduled exit the following year. Traders assign very low probability to his departure before the June 30, 2026 resolution date, reflecting the absence of viable constitutional or political mechanisms to force an earlier transition absent unforeseen crises.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题