Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican advantage, driven by its rural and suburban composition across west-central Missouri and the recently upheld redrawn map that reinforces conservative strongholds. Incumbent Republican Mark Alford, who secured 71% of the vote in 2024, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic candidates remain divided among multiple entrants. These structural factors, combined with consistent historical margins and limited recent polling shifts or disruptive events, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5%. A significant national Democratic surge, an unforeseen primary upset, or late-breaking scandal involving the frontrunner could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election, though such developments appear low-probability under current conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$33,527 交易量
$33,527 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
$33,527 交易量
$33,527 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$19,377 交易量
94%
民主党
$14,150 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican advantage, driven by its rural and suburban composition across west-central Missouri and the recently upheld redrawn map that reinforces conservative strongholds. Incumbent Republican Mark Alford, who secured 71% of the vote in 2024, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic candidates remain divided among multiple entrants. These structural factors, combined with consistent historical margins and limited recent polling shifts or disruptive events, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5%. A significant national Democratic surge, an unforeseen primary upset, or late-breaking scandal involving the frontrunner could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election, though such developments appear low-probability under current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$33,527结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican advantage, driven by its rural and suburban composition across west-central Missouri and the recently upheld redrawn map that reinforces conservative strongholds. Incumbent Republican Mark Alford, who secured 71% of the vote in 2024, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic candidates remain divided among multiple entrants. These structural factors, combined with consistent historical margins and limited recent polling shifts or disruptive events, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5%. A significant national Democratic surge, an unforeseen primary upset, or late-breaking scandal involving the frontrunner could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election, though such developments appear low-probability under current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$33,527结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican advantage, driven by its rural and suburban composition across west-central Missouri and the recently upheld redrawn map that reinforces conservative strongholds. Incumbent Republican Mark Alford, who secured 71% of the vote in 2024, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic candidates remain divided among multiple entrants. These structural factors, combined with consistent historical margins and limited recent polling shifts or disruptive events, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5%. A significant national Democratic surge, an unforeseen primary upset, or late-breaking scandal involving the frontrunner could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election, though such developments appear low-probability under current conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题