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政治·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
政治·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Petro - Colombia President 50%

Starmer - UK PM 26%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 15.4%

Netanyahu - Israel PM 2.4%

Polymarket

$555,213 交易量

Petro - Colombia President 50%

Starmer - UK PM 26%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 15.4%

Netanyahu - Israel PM 2.4%

Polymarket

$555,213 交易量

Petro - Colombia President

$55,657 交易量

50%

Starmer - UK PM

$34,668 交易量

26%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$22,596 交易量

15%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$27,259 交易量

2%

None before 2027

$36,314 交易量

2%

Putin - Russia President

$25,989 交易量

2%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$29,506 交易量

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$20,380 交易量

1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$16,198 交易量

1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$21,965 交易量

1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$17,387 交易量

<1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$18,098 交易量

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$20,092 交易量

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$20,080 交易量

<1%

Lecornu - France PM

$18,592 交易量

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$19,915 交易量

<1%

Macron - France President

$19,604 交易量

<1%

Trump - USA President

$15,285 交易量

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$28,369 交易量

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$14,883 交易量

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$22,036 交易量

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$17,437 交易量

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$15,277 交易量

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$17,628 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Gustavo Petro’s constitutionally mandated departure from Colombia’s presidency in August 2026, following the May 31 first-round vote and June 21 runoff that will install his successor, underpins the 50% trader consensus on his exit before 2027. Keir Starmer’s position at 25.5% reflects sustained low approval ratings near 20% and mounting Labour Party pressure after heavy May 2026 local election losses, raising the prospect of an early leadership transition. Miguel Díaz-Canel’s 15.3% share aligns with Cuba’s stable authoritarian structure and five-year term extending into 2028, despite external diplomatic strains. Remaining outcomes stay below 3% due to fixed electoral calendars or entrenched leadership continuity, with the current pricing capturing skin-in-the-game assessments of near-term institutional and political timelines.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$555,213
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Gustavo Petro’s constitutionally mandated departure from Colombia’s presidency in August 2026, following the May 31 first-round vote and June 21 runoff that will install his successor, underpins the 50% trader consensus on his exit before 2027. Keir Starmer’s position at 25.5% reflects sustained low approval ratings near 20% and mounting Labour Party pressure after heavy May 2026 local election losses, raising the prospect of an early leadership transition. Miguel Díaz-Canel’s 15.3% share aligns with Cuba’s stable authoritarian structure and five-year term extending into 2028, despite external diplomatic strains. Remaining outcomes stay below 3% due to fixed electoral calendars or entrenched leadership continuity, with the current pricing capturing skin-in-the-game assessments of near-term institutional and political timelines.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$555,213
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 24 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"Petro - Colombia President"，概率为 50%，其次是"Starmer - UK PM"，概率为 26%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 50¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 50%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)"已产生 $555.2K 的总交易量（自Apr 27, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 24 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)"的当前领先者是"Petro - Colombia President"，概率为 50%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 50%。紧随其后的结果是"Starmer - UK PM"，概率为 26%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。