Labour's internal leadership crisis, triggered by poor local election results in May 2026 and widespread calls from MPs for Keir Starmer's departure, has elevated Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham as the frontrunner to become the next prime minister. Burnham's bid to contest the Makerfield by-election, expected in June, offers a route to a parliamentary seat required for any leadership challenge, aligning with his high favourability ratings among party members and the public. The 23% probability assigned to no change in 2026 reflects uncertainty over the timeline for any transition or Starmer's ability to stabilize the government. Potential alternatives such as Angela Rayner, Wes Streeting, and Ed Miliband remain secondary in trader assessments amid ongoing party divisions and procedural hurdles for a contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于安迪·伯纳姆 62.7%
2026年没有下任首相 23%
安吉拉·雷纳 7%
埃德·米利班德 3.6%
$9,037,298 交易量
$9,037,298 交易量
安迪·伯纳姆
63%
2026年没有下任首相
23%
安吉拉·雷纳
7%
埃德·米利班德
4%
韦斯·斯特里廷
1%
奈杰尔·法拉奇
1%
鲁珀特·洛伊
1%
沙巴娜·马哈茂德
1%
伊薇特·库珀
1%
Al Carns
1%
雷切尔·里夫斯
<1%
凯米·巴德诺克
<1%
大卫·拉米
<1%
露西·鲍威尔
<1%
鲍里斯·约翰逊
<1%
埃德·戴维
<1%
布里奇特·菲利普森
<1%
罗伯特·詹里克
<1%
詹姆斯·克莱弗利
<1%
达伦·琼斯
<1%
约翰·希利
<1%
安迪·伯纳姆 62.7%
2026年没有下任首相 23%
安吉拉·雷纳 7%
埃德·米利班德 3.6%
$9,037,298 交易量
$9,037,298 交易量
安迪·伯纳姆
63%
2026年没有下任首相
23%
安吉拉·雷纳
7%
埃德·米利班德
4%
韦斯·斯特里廷
1%
奈杰尔·法拉奇
1%
鲁珀特·洛伊
1%
沙巴娜·马哈茂德
1%
伊薇特·库珀
1%
Al Carns
1%
雷切尔·里夫斯
<1%
凯米·巴德诺克
<1%
大卫·拉米
<1%
露西·鲍威尔
<1%
鲍里斯·约翰逊
<1%
埃德·戴维
<1%
布里奇特·菲利普森
<1%
罗伯特·詹里克
<1%
詹姆斯·克莱弗利
<1%
达伦·琼斯
<1%
约翰·希利
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Labour's internal leadership crisis, triggered by poor local election results in May 2026 and widespread calls from MPs for Keir Starmer's departure, has elevated Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham as the frontrunner to become the next prime minister. Burnham's bid to contest the Makerfield by-election, expected in June, offers a route to a parliamentary seat required for any leadership challenge, aligning with his high favourability ratings among party members and the public. The 23% probability assigned to no change in 2026 reflects uncertainty over the timeline for any transition or Starmer's ability to stabilize the government. Potential alternatives such as Angela Rayner, Wes Streeting, and Ed Miliband remain secondary in trader assessments amid ongoing party divisions and procedural hurdles for a contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题