Donalds remains GOP favorite as rivals refuse to clear field

Byron Donalds rises to 91%3%

Despite Donalds' strong position and fundraising advantage, rivals like Lt. Gov. Jay Collins continue their campaigns, but Donalds maintains his frontrunner status amid ongoing polling and campaign developments.

Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor

Byron Donalds rises to 88%3%

Sheriff Grady Judd endorsed Byron Donalds, praising his law-and-order stance and support for tough-on-crime policies. This endorsement from a respected law enforcement figure bolstered Donalds' appeal among conservative voters and reinforced his frontrunner status.

Governor Ron DeSantis denies Casey DeSantis plans to run for governor

Casey DeSantis dips to 0%2%

Governor Ron DeSantis publicly addressed rumors about his wife Casey DeSantis running for governor, stating she has no interest in seeking office. This statement likely contributed to the decline of Casey DeSantis' market price to zero.

Governor Ron DeSantis addresses rumors about Casey DeSantis running for governor

Casey DeSantis dips to 0%3%

Governor Ron DeSantis publicly addressed speculation about his wife, Casey DeSantis, potentially running for governor, denying her interest in running. This statement likely contributed to the decline in market support for Casey DeSantis in the primary race.

Jay Collins’ market price slides to 5% after missing debate invitation

Collins was not invited to the televised GOP debate, signaling limited party support and pushing his price down to single digits.

Poll: Byron Donalds leads potential Democrat challengers for Florida governor

An Echelon Insights survey showed Byron Donalds leading potential Democratic challengers in the general election, reinforcing his strong position and appeal to voters. This positive polling likely supported his market price near the peak.

Poll shows Byron Donalds leading potential Democrat challengers for Florida governor

Byron Donalds rises to 87%1%

An April 2026 poll showed Byron Donalds leading against potential Democratic opponents, reinforcing his frontrunner status and likely contributing to sustained high market support.

Poll shows Byron Donalds leading potential Democratic challengers for Florida Governor

Byron Donalds rises to 87%1%

A survey by Echelon Insights showed Donalds leading Democrat challengers David Jolly and Jerry Demings, reinforcing his strong position ahead of the primary and general election.

Byron Donalds maintains clear lead in Florida GOP governor primary

Byron Donalds rises to 92%4%

Polls and political analysis in April 2026 showed Byron Donalds holding a clear lead in the Republican primary for Florida governor, with strong fundraising and endorsements contributing to his dominance. This sustained polling advantage supported his market price near peak levels.

Poll shows Byron Donalds holding early lead in Florida GOP governor primary

Byron Donalds jumps to 88%6%

An Emerson College poll showed Donalds leading with 46% support among likely Republican primary voters, confirming his frontrunner status and contributing to sustained high market prices for his win.

Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary with 46% support

Byron Donalds rises to 88%2%

An Emerson College poll found Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with 46% support among likely voters, confirming his frontrunner status and contributing to market confidence in his nomination.

Donalds holds early lead in Florida GOP governor primary

Polling and fundraising data showed Byron Donalds maintaining a clear lead in the Republican primary with 120 days to go before the election. Analysts noted that his messaging and organizing efforts in the coming months would be crucial to sustaining this advantage.

Poll shows Byron Donalds holds early lead in Florida GOP governor primary

An Emerson College poll showed Donalds leading with 46% support among likely Republican primary voters, confirming his frontrunner status and contributing to sustained market confidence in his nomination.

James Fishback’s poll numbers dip below 10% after fundraising reports

James Fishback dips to 9%3%

Fishback disclosed a modest $500,000 fundraising total, causing his market price to fall from 12% to 9% as donors shifted to Donalds.

Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd endorses Byron Donalds for Governor

Sheriff Grady Judd endorsed Byron Donalds, praising his law-and-order stance and support for tough-on-crime policies. This endorsement added to Donalds' broad coalition and reinforced his image as the law-and-order candidate.

Byron Donalds dominates Florida GOP gubernatorial race

Byron Donalds rises to 87%3%

Byron Donalds' campaign dominance was highlighted by his fundraising, endorsements, and polling leads, making him the clear frontrunner in the Republican primary. His opponents struggled to gain traction amid his strong position.

44 candidates in 2026 Florida gubernatorial race

The race expanded to 44 candidates, reflecting a highly fragmented field with multiple contenders vying for the Republican nomination.

James Fishback confronted publicly over alleged grooming of a minor

Fishback faced viral public confrontation and debate over longstanding allegations of a relationship with a minor, intensifying scrutiny and controversy around his campaign.

Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida governor’s race by wide margin

Byron Donalds jumps to 87%6%

An Emerson College poll showed Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with 46% support, far ahead of other candidates, reinforcing his dominant position and increasing market confidence.

Byron Donalds’ campaign announces record $22.2 million fundraising haul in Q1 2026

Byron Donalds jumps to 90%8%

Donalds’ campaign reported raising $22.2 million in the first quarter of 2026, further solidifying his financial advantage and front-runner position in the Republican primary, which was reflected in a price increase in the market.

Byron Donalds reports record $22.2 million fundraising haul in first quarter 2026

Byron Donalds jumps to 89%6%

Donalds' campaign announced a record-breaking $22.2 million raised in Q1 2026, further demonstrating his strong financial backing and campaign momentum, reinforcing his lead in the primary race.

Byron Donalds raises $22.2 million in Q1 2026 for governor campaign

Byron Donalds jumps to 90%7%

Donalds' campaign announced a record-breaking $22.2 million fundraising haul in Q1 2026, further demonstrating his strong campaign infrastructure and solidifying his dominant position in the race.

Byron Donalds’ campaign raises record $22.2 million in first quarter

Byron Donalds jumps to 90%6%

Byron Donalds announced a record-breaking fundraising haul of $22.2 million in Q1 2026, significantly boosting his campaign resources. This financial strength reinforced his frontrunner status and enabled expanded voter outreach and advertising efforts ahead of the primary.

Byron Donalds raises record $22.2 million in first quarter for governor campaign

Byron Donalds jumps to 89%6%

Donalds' campaign announced a record-breaking fundraising haul of $22.2 million in Q1 2026, demonstrating strong financial support and reinforcing his frontrunner position in the GOP primary.

Byron Donalds peaks at 93% after winning key endorsement from Florida Senate President

Byron Donalds jumps to 93%5%

The Florida Senate President publicly endorsed Donalds, creating a brief market peak to 93% before a modest pullback, while all other candidates fell to near‑zero.

Byron Donalds' campaign gains momentum with increased media coverage and endorsements

Byron Donalds jumps to 93%11%

Byron Donalds' campaign received increased media attention and endorsements from key Republican figures, solidifying his position as the frontrunner in the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary. This led to a peak in his market probability around early April 2026.

Byron Donalds hits peak market support amid Florida GOP primary race

Byron Donalds jumps to 93%11%

Byron Donalds reached a peak market price of 93%, reflecting strong confidence in his likelihood to win the Republican primary for Florida governor as other candidates' support waned.

Byron Donalds raises record $22.2 million in first quarter for Florida governor race

Byron Donalds jumps to 87%6%

Byron Donalds' campaign announced a record-breaking fundraising haul of $22.2 million in the first quarter of 2026, solidifying his frontrunner status and boosting market confidence in his nomination chances.

Gov. Ron DeSantis calls special session to redraw Florida congressional districts

Governor DeSantis called a special legislative session in April 2026 to redraw congressional districts, intensifying GOP infighting and political maneuvering in Florida. While this affected the broader political landscape, it had limited direct impact on the gubernatorial primary market.

Byron Donalds reports record $22.4 million fundraising haul for governor campaign

Byron Donalds rises to 88%4%

Byron Donalds announced raising a record $22.4 million in the first quarter of 2026, significantly outpacing his rivals and solidifying his dominant position in the Republican primary. This fundraising success reinforced his frontrunner status and market price.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins enters 2026 governor race against Trump-backed rival

Jay Collins, Florida's Lieutenant Governor and a key ally of Governor DeSantis, announced his candidacy for governor, entering the Republican primary against Trump-backed Byron Donalds. Collins' entry introduced a significant challenger, causing some market volatility and a temporary increase in his market price.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins enters 2026 governor race against Trump-backed rival

Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%

Jay Collins, Florida's lieutenant governor and a key ally of Gov. Ron DeSantis, announced his candidacy for governor, entering the Republican primary against Trump-backed Byron Donalds. Collins' entry initially caused some market interest but did not significantly challenge Donalds' lead, as reflected by his price declining to 3% by May 2026.

Byron Donalds hits 87% price after DeSantis hints at endorsement

Byron Donalds jumps to 87%5%

Governor Ron DeSantis said he would consider endorsing a candidate but did not name anyone; market inferred likely support for Donalds, sending his price to 87% and further marginalizing others.

Waffle House bans James Fishback from Florida locations

James Fishback dips to 7%4%

James Fishback announced that Waffle House revoked permission for his campaign to visit their Florida locations, citing a ban. This unusual campaign setback received media coverage and likely contributed to a decline in his market price.

James Fishback banned from Waffle House locations in Florida

James Fishback drops to 10%7%

James Fishback announced that Waffle House revoked permission for his campaign to visit all Florida locations and criminally trespassed his campaign from the restaurants. This incident drew media attention and may have affected his campaign momentum negatively.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor against Trump-backed Donalds

Jay Collins plunges to 11%31%

Jay Collins, Florida's lieutenant governor, entered the Republican primary, challenging frontrunner Byron Donalds. Collins' entry introduced competition but did not significantly dent Donalds' lead, reflected in modest market price changes.

Byron Donalds raises record $45 million in 2025 for Florida governor campaign

Byron Donalds jumps to 82%9%

Donalds shattered Florida fundraising records by raising $45 million in 2025, significantly outpacing previous candidates and solidifying his frontrunner status. This unprecedented fundraising haul increased market confidence in his nomination prospects.

James Fishback gains attention among young Republican voters in Florida

James Fishback dips to 15%3%

James Fishback's campaign made inroads with younger Republican voters, polling at 32% among ages 18-32, though overall support remained low, causing a temporary market interest in his candidacy.

James Fishback gains attention with Gen-Z Republican voters in Florida

James Fishback rises to 14%1%

James Fishback's campaign made inroads with younger Republican voters, polling at 32% among ages 18-32, though overall support remained low. This caused a temporary stabilization in his market price despite his long-shot status.

Rep. Byron Donalds announces run for Florida governor with Trump endorsement

Byron Donalds surges to 82%34%

Byron Donalds, a staunch Trump ally, announced his candidacy for Florida governor and received immediate backing from former President Donald Trump. This endorsement significantly boosted Donalds' standing in the Republican primary market, reflected in a sharp price increase from 48% to over 80% in the following weeks.

Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid continues to solidify

Byron Donalds rises to 81%3%

Byron Donalds' campaign maintained its momentum as the primary frontrunner, with his market price rising steadily throughout the period.

Byron Donalds maintains strong lead in Florida GOP gubernatorial primary market

Byron Donalds rises to 81%2%

Byron Donalds' market price remained high following his early announcement and Trump's endorsement, solidifying his position as the frontrunner in the Republican primary.

Byron Donalds officially announces run for Florida governor with Trump endorsement

Byron Donalds, a staunch Trump ally and U.S. Representative, announced his candidacy for Florida governor, immediately receiving President Donald Trump's endorsement. This endorsement significantly boosted Donalds' perceived chances in the Republican primary, reflected in a sharp price increase in the prediction market.

Poll shows Trump endorsement boosts Byron Donalds' support

Byron Donalds jumps to 79%12%

A University of North Florida poll revealed that informing GOP voters of Donald Trump's endorsement of Byron Donalds increased his support from 28% to 47%, while Casey DeSantis' support dropped. The poll underscored the significant impact of Trump's backing on Donalds' frontrunner status.

Poll shows Byron Donalds leading GOP primary field

Byron Donalds jumps to 86%7%

A University of North Florida poll showed Donalds leading the Republican primary with 28-31% support, depending on Casey DeSantis' candidacy, solidifying his frontrunner position and boosting market confidence.

Byron Donalds leads Florida governor race fundraising with record haul

Byron Donalds jumps to 87%8%

Byron Donalds raised $22.4 million in the first quarter of 2026, a record for a non-incumbent candidate in Florida, solidifying his dominant position in the Republican primary. This fundraising success reinforced market confidence in his likelihood to win the nomination.

National Governors Association meeting disrupted by Trump excluding Democrats

The annual governors' meeting in Washington was upended after President Trump excluded Democratic governors from White House events, highlighting partisan tensions that may influence Republican primaries including Florida's.

Byron Donalds reaches 81% market price after fundraising surge

Byron Donalds rises to 81%3%

Donald’s campaign reported a $15 million fundraising haul, reinforcing his frontrunner status and pushing his market price to a new high.

James Fishback alleges arson attack at his home

James Fishback drops to 11%6%

Authorities responded to a fire at James Fishback’s home, which he alleged was an arson attack intended as political intimidation. This incident brought media attention but also increased scrutiny and controversy around Fishback's campaign, contributing to a decline in his market support.

James Fishback alleges arson attack at his Madison County home

James Fishback dips to 14%3%

James Fishback's campaign faced a setback when authorities responded to a fire at his home, which he alleged was an act of political intimidation. This incident contributed to volatility and negative media attention around his campaign, impacting his market support negatively.

Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd endorses Byron Donalds for Governor

Byron Donalds rises to 86%4%

Sheriff Grady Judd endorsed Byron Donalds, praising his law-and-order stance and support for tough-on-crime policies. This endorsement added to Donalds' growing support among Republican voters and reinforced his frontrunner position.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor against Trump-backed Donalds

Jay Collins plunges to 12%30%

Jay Collins entered the Republican primary, challenging frontrunner Byron Donalds. Collins' entry introduced competition but did not significantly dent Donalds' lead in the market.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor

Jay Collins surges to 88%46%

Jay Collins, appointed lieutenant governor in August 2025, officially announced his candidacy for governor, entering the crowded Republican primary against frontrunner Byron Donalds. This announcement caused a significant surge in Collins' market price.

Jay Collins announces candidacy for Florida governor

Jay Collins plunges to 8%34%

Florida Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins announced his run for governor, entering the crowded Republican primary field. His entry added competition but did not significantly challenge Donalds' frontrunner status, reflected in his low market price.

Byron Donalds campaign labels Jay Collins an anti-Trump RINO

Byron Donalds rises to 85%3%

Following Jay Collins' entry into the race, Byron Donalds' campaign quickly responded by branding Collins as an anti-Trump RINO, aiming to consolidate Trump-aligned Republican voters and maintain Donalds' frontrunner status.

Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces bid for Florida governor

Jay Collins plunges to 11%31%

Jay Collins, appointed lieutenant governor by Ron DeSantis, announced his candidacy for governor, entering the Republican primary as a DeSantis ally. Despite initial support, Collins struggled to gain traction against Donalds, reflected in his declining market price.

Jay Collins announces run for Florida governor

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, a former Green Beret and DeSantis ally, announced his candidacy for governor, entering a crowded Republican primary. His military background and legislative record were central to his campaign, but he faced immediate market skepticism due to Donalds' Trump endorsement and fundraising advantage.

Mason-Dixon poll confirms Byron Donalds leads Florida GOP governor primary

Byron Donalds jumps to 82%11%

Mason-Dixon polling showed Donalds with 37% support among Republican voters, maintaining his lead and reinforcing his frontrunner position in the primary race.

Matt Gaetz hints at considering Florida governor run

Matt Gaetz plunges to 1%40%

Former Congressman Matt Gaetz publicly stated he was "starting to think about" running for Florida governor in 2026, sparking speculation about his potential candidacy. This announcement caused some market interest but did not translate into significant support.

Byron Donalds sets Florida fundraising record with $45 million raised in 2025

Byron Donalds rises to 84%2%

Byron Donalds raised a record-breaking $45 million in 2025 for his gubernatorial campaign, surpassing previous fundraising records and solidifying his position as the GOP frontrunner in Florida.

Florida GOP hosts candidate forum; Donalds dominates headlines

Byron Donalds rises to 82%1%

During a televised GOP forum, Donalds outperformed rivals in a Q&A session, leading to a price jump from 81% to 82% as market participants interpreted his strong showing as a sign of inevitable nomination.

Byron Donalds raises $45 million in 2025 for Florida governor campaign

Byron Donalds jumps to 82%11%

Donalds' campaign reported raising $45 million over 2025, including $13.1 million in Q4, setting a fundraising record for Florida gubernatorial campaigns. This financial strength solidified his frontrunner status and contributed to his market price increase.

Allegations surface against James Fishback regarding relationship with minor

James Fishback plunges to 25%18%

Serious allegations emerged against Republican candidate James Fishback concerning a past relationship with a minor, leading to negative media coverage and public scrutiny. This controversy contributed to a significant decline in Fishback's market support.

James Fishback makes controversial racial remarks against Byron Donalds

James Fishback drops to 16%9%

Fishback made racially charged attacks against Byron Donalds, including calling him a 'slave,' which alienated voters and party members, contributing to a steep drop in his market price.

Trump publicly praises Byron Donalds as preferred Florida governor candidate

Byron Donalds jumps to 81%11%

President Trump reiterated his support for Donalds in a televised interview, prompting a further price rise for Donalds to the low 80s and a corresponding decline for other candidates.

Governor Ron DeSantis declines to endorse any primary candidate

DeSantis' neutrality removed a potential boost for other contenders, reinforcing Donalds' lead and contributing to the continued decline of the remaining candidates toward zero.

Byron Donalds raises record $45 million in 2025 for Florida governor campaign

Byron Donalds jumps to 82%14%

Donalds' campaign announced a record-breaking fundraising haul of $45 million in 2025, the largest in Florida gubernatorial history at this point. This financial strength reinforced his frontrunner status and caused his market price to rise sharply.

Byron Donalds raises $45 million in 2025 for Florida governor campaign

Byron Donalds jumps to 82%11%

Byron Donalds' campaign announced raising $45 million over 2025, setting a fundraising record for Florida gubernatorial candidates at this stage. This financial strength increased his market support and solidified his frontrunner status.

Byron Donalds sets Florida fundraising record with $45 million raised in 2025

Byron Donalds surges to 82%19%

Donalds raised an unprecedented $45 million in 2025 for his gubernatorial campaign, surpassing previous records and solidifying his frontrunner status. This fundraising success significantly boosted market confidence in his chances.

Faith leaders unite behind Byron Donalds' Florida governor bid

Byron Donalds formed a Faith Leaders Coalition comprising 65 clergy and faith-based leaders to support his gubernatorial campaign. This coalition organized weekly prayer calls and mobilized grassroots support, strengthening Donalds' campaign infrastructure and voter outreach efforts.

Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor

Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%

Collins' entry added a high‑profile state official to the field, briefly lifting his price from single digits to low‑teens before his support waned as Donalds' endorsement dominated the narrative.

Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Republican primary field

Byron Donalds jumps to 70%10%

A statewide poll released in mid‑December gave Donalds a double‑digit lead over his rivals, reinforcing his upward price trajectory to the low 70s.

Azoria CEO James Fishback launches gubernatorial campaign

James Fishback drops to 36%7%

James Fishback entered the race, positioning himself as a business outsider; the announcement shifted attention away from other fringe candidates, contributing to a modest dip in his own price and a slight rise for Donalds.

Jay Collins' gubernatorial bid gains attention as lieutenant governor

Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%

Following his announcement, Jay Collins' candidacy gained traction but faced challenges competing against Trump-backed Donalds, reflected in fluctuating market prices in early December 2025.

Trump-endorsed Donalds raises $45M in Florida governor campaign

Byron Donalds jumps to 82%9%

Donalds surpassed all previous gubernatorial fundraising records, amassing $45 million over 2025 with $13.1 million in Q4, solidifying his position as the frontrunner.

James Fishback launches gubernatorial campaign

James Fishback drops to 33%10%

Entrepreneur James Fishback entered the race, drawing limited media attention; his market price fell from 43% to the low 30s as donors and voters focused on higher‑profile candidates.

Trump-endorsed Donalds raises $45 million in Florida governor campaign

Byron Donalds jumps to 82%9%

Donalds surpassed all previous gubernatorial fundraising records with $45 million raised over 2025, including $13.1 million in Q4 from over 8,000 donors, solidifying his position as the frontrunner.

Emerson College poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary

Byron Donalds surges to 69%21%

A poll from Emerson College showed Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with 46% support, far ahead of other candidates. This polling data reinforced Donalds' frontrunner status and likely contributed to his market price increase.

Donald Trump endorses Rep. Byron Donalds for Florida governor

Byron Donalds jumps to 62%14%

Former President Trump publicly backed Byron Donalds, giving the candidate a major boost in national visibility and signaling party establishment support, which drove Donalds' price from the low‑40s to the high‑60s percent range.

Lt. Gov. Jay Collins enters 2026 Florida governor race

Jay Collins plunges to 12%30%

Jay Collins announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a DeSantis ally but without a clear endorsement, which coincided with a sharp drop in his market price from 42% to the low single digits over the following weeks.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces gubernatorial run

Jay Collins plunges to 12%30%

Jay Collins entered the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, positioning himself against Trump‑backed Byron Donalds. The announcement triggered a steep drop in Collins' market price as voters reassessed his viability.

Jay Collins announces run for Florida governor

Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announced his candidacy for governor, entering the primary race against Trump-backed Byron Donalds, which initially caused a shift in market expectations.

James Fishback's campaign faces early market decline

James Fishback plunges to 10%33%

Fishback's campaign struggled early, with his price dropping from 43% to 10% by mid-2026, indicating limited traction in the competitive field.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces 2026 gubernatorial run against Trump-backed Byron Donalds

Jay Collins surges to 88%46%

Collins' official announcement launched his campaign, positioning him as a serious contender with strong military credentials and a potential path to challenge term-limited Gov. DeSantis. This major news event drove his price surge from 42% to 88% over the following months.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor

Jay Collins, a key ally of Governor DeSantis, entered the Republican primary, challenging frontrunner Byron Donalds and initially drawing market attention.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces 2026 governor run against Trump-backed Byron Donalds

Byron Donalds surges to 63%15%

Jay Collins, Florida's lieutenant governor and a DeSantis ally, officially entered the Republican primary, setting up a contest against Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds. This announcement clarified the primary field and influenced early market positioning, with Donalds gaining from Trump's backing and Collins entering as a credible contender.

Byron Donalds' gubernatorial campaign gains momentum

Byron Donalds' campaign for Florida governor, backed by Donald Trump, began the analysis window with strong market support, reflecting his status as the frontrunner.