President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s AKP has advanced internal drafting efforts for constitutional changes, including a May 2025 legal team and a declared “year of reform” for 2026, yet the party’s coalition with the MHP holds only around 321 seats in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly. Advancing a referendum requires at least 360 votes, a threshold unmet despite limited opposition defections. Opposition parties remain fragmented on key provisions, and Justice Minister statements have emphasized the need for wider consensus amid shifting political conditions. With the next presidential election set for 2028 and no recent parliamentary breakthroughs, traders assign an 79% probability that no referendum will be formally announced by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s AKP has advanced internal drafting efforts for constitutional changes, including a May 2025 legal team and a declared “year of reform” for 2026, yet the party’s coalition with the MHP holds only around 321 seats in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly. Advancing a referendum requires at least 360 votes, a threshold unmet despite limited opposition defections. Opposition parties remain fragmented on key provisions, and Justice Minister statements have emphasized the need for wider consensus amid shifting political conditions. With the next presidential election set for 2028 and no recent parliamentary breakthroughs, traders assign an 79% probability that no referendum will be formally announced by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
交易量
$640结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s AKP has advanced internal drafting efforts for constitutional changes, including a May 2025 legal team and a declared “year of reform” for 2026, yet the party’s coalition with the MHP holds only around 321 seats in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly. Advancing a referendum requires at least 360 votes, a threshold unmet despite limited opposition defections. Opposition parties remain fragmented on key provisions, and Justice Minister statements have emphasized the need for wider consensus amid shifting political conditions. With the next presidential election set for 2028 and no recent parliamentary breakthroughs, traders assign an 79% probability that no referendum will be formally announced by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$640结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s AKP has advanced internal drafting efforts for constitutional changes, including a May 2025 legal team and a declared “year of reform” for 2026, yet the party’s coalition with the MHP holds only around 321 seats in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly. Advancing a referendum requires at least 360 votes, a threshold unmet despite limited opposition defections. Opposition parties remain fragmented on key provisions, and Justice Minister statements have emphasized the need for wider consensus amid shifting political conditions. With the next presidential election set for 2028 and no recent parliamentary breakthroughs, traders assign an 79% probability that no referendum will be formally announced by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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