US diplomatic efforts under the second Trump administration have sustained momentum for Abraham Accords expansion through bilateral talks and security incentives, highlighted by Kazakhstan’s formal accession in November 2025 and Somaliland’s subsequent pledge following Israeli recognition. Major candidates such as Saudi Arabia continue conditioning any agreement on concrete progress toward a Palestinian state, while post-Assad Syria and Lebanon face domestic instability and territorial frictions that limit near-term options despite reported dialogues. These dynamics—active US engagement versus unresolved core disputes—shape trader assessments of which additional country might formalize ties before the 2027 deadline, with potential catalysts including shifts in Gaza-related diplomacy or arrangements linked to Iran negotiations.