The market for the next departure from the Trump cabinet shows a tight cluster of probabilities among multiple officials, with the top contenders separated by just a few percentage points. This positioning reflects the lack of distinguishing public developments or performance signals that would elevate any single appointee as the most likely to exit in the near term. Cabinet turnover in a new administration typically stems from policy implementation demands, Senate dynamics, or agency leadership pressures, and traders appear to view these factors as evenly distributed across the listed names at present. Confirmation processes, legislative votes, or executive branch adjustments could create separation if they generate targeted scrutiny for one individual. The low share assigned to no departures before 2027 indicates broad expectations of at least one change during the term.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Doug Burgum 94%
Sean Duffy 46.3%
Scott Bessent 33.5%
Howard Lutnick 30%
最新
最新
2026-12-31
Doug Burgum
94%
Sean Duffy
46%
Scott Bessent
34%
Howard Lutnick
30%
Doug Collins
5%
J.D. Vance
5%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
4%
John Ratcliffe
4%
None before 2027
16%
Scott Turner
1%
Pete Hegseth
1%
Jamieson Greer
7%
Marco Rubio
38%
Lee Zeldin
47%
Russell T. Vought
41%
Kelly Loeffler
45%
Brooke Rollins
39%
Susie Wiles
41%
Chris Wright
-
Linda McMahon
-
Mike Waltz
-
Doug Burgum 94%
Sean Duffy 46.3%
Scott Bessent 33.5%
Howard Lutnick 30%
最新
最新
2026-12-31
Doug Burgum
$70 交易量
94%
Sean Duffy
$101 交易量
46%
Scott Bessent
$362 交易量
34%
Howard Lutnick
$221 交易量
30%
Doug Collins
$76 交易量
5%
J.D. Vance
$170 交易量
5%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$81 交易量
4%
John Ratcliffe
$75 交易量
4%
None before 2027
$210 交易量
16%
Scott Turner
$80 交易量
1%
Pete Hegseth
$118 交易量
1%
Jamieson Greer
$80 交易量
7%
Marco Rubio
$75 交易量
38%
Lee Zeldin
$131 交易量
47%
Russell T. Vought
$75 交易量
41%
Kelly Loeffler
$127 交易量
45%
Brooke Rollins
$230 交易量
39%
Susie Wiles
$155 交易量
41%
Chris Wright
$101 交易量
-
Linda McMahon
$183 交易量
-
Mike Waltz
$94 交易量
-
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.The market for the next departure from the Trump cabinet shows a tight cluster of probabilities among multiple officials, with the top contenders separated by just a few percentage points. This positioning reflects the lack of distinguishing public developments or performance signals that would elevate any single appointee as the most likely to exit in the near term. Cabinet turnover in a new administration typically stems from policy implementation demands, Senate dynamics, or agency leadership pressures, and traders appear to view these factors as evenly distributed across the listed names at present. Confirmation processes, legislative votes, or executive branch adjustments could create separation if they generate targeted scrutiny for one individual. The low share assigned to no departures before 2027 indicates broad expectations of at least one change during the term.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
交易量
$2,811结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.The market for the next departure from the Trump cabinet shows a tight cluster of probabilities among multiple officials, with the top contenders separated by just a few percentage points. This positioning reflects the lack of distinguishing public developments or performance signals that would elevate any single appointee as the most likely to exit in the near term. Cabinet turnover in a new administration typically stems from policy implementation demands, Senate dynamics, or agency leadership pressures, and traders appear to view these factors as evenly distributed across the listed names at present. Confirmation processes, legislative votes, or executive branch adjustments could create separation if they generate targeted scrutiny for one individual. The low share assigned to no departures before 2027 indicates broad expectations of at least one change during the term.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
交易量
$2,811结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market for the next departure from the Trump cabinet shows a tight cluster of probabilities among multiple officials, with the top contenders separated by just a few percentage points. This positioning reflects the lack of distinguishing public developments or performance signals that would elevate any single appointee as the most likely to exit in the near term. Cabinet turnover in a new administration typically stems from policy implementation demands, Senate dynamics, or agency leadership pressures, and traders appear to view these factors as evenly distributed across the listed names at present. Confirmation processes, legislative votes, or executive branch adjustments could create separation if they generate targeted scrutiny for one individual. The low share assigned to no departures before 2027 indicates broad expectations of at least one change during the term.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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