Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Bogotá has moderated earlier tensions over counternarcotics, with direct leader communications and scheduled meetings reducing immediate risks of escalation following U.S. actions in Venezuela. Colombia's status as a longstanding major non-NATO ally, combined with ongoing joint operations against groups such as the ELN and shared interests in regional stability, underpins trader assessments that a full-scale U.S. invasion remains highly improbable through 2026. Colombia's May presidential and legislative elections introduce potential policy shifts, yet current dynamics favor continuity in bilateral security cooperation. Realistic scenarios that could still alter this outlook include a sharp deterioration in drug interdiction results, new sanctions tied to migration or trade disputes, or an unexpected regional crisis prompting unilateral U.S. strikes on Colombian territory.