Tom Tiffany holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary for Wisconsin governor, scheduled for August 11, 2026, as reflected in trader consensus. Donald Trump's January 2026 endorsement consolidated support behind the U.S. representative, prompting key rivals including Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann to exit the race shortly afterward. Wisconsin Republican Party delegates formally endorsed Tiffany at their May 2026 state convention, emphasizing unity and avoiding a contested primary. Earlier polling showed Tiffany ahead by wide margins among likely voters. While his position appears secure, developments such as an unexpected late entrant, shifts in voter turnout patterns, or new campaign controversies before the August primary could still influence the outcome.