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icon for 哪一方将在2026年赢得众议院？
政治·美国大选

哪一方将在2026年赢得众议院？

icon for 哪一方将在2026年赢得众议院？
政治·美国大选

哪一方将在2026年赢得众议院？

11月 3

11月 3

Polymarket

$6,919,121 交易量

$6,919,121 交易量

icon for 民主党

民主党

$3,755,190 交易量

82%

icon for 共和党

共和党

$3,163,936 交易量

20%

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Democrats hold an 81.5% implied probability of winning House control in the 2026 midterms, reflecting trader consensus on structural headwinds for the president's party. Republicans enter with a narrow majority and must defend vulnerable battleground districts, while Democrats need only modest net gains of roughly three to five seats to flip the chamber. Recent generic ballot polling shows a consistent Democratic advantage in the low single digits, reinforced by special election results demonstrating overperformance relative to 2024 baselines. Midcycle redistricting in states such as Texas and Louisiana has produced limited Republican offsets without altering the overall positioning. Historical midterm patterns of losses for the incumbent president's party continue to shape assessments ahead of November voting.

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
交易量
$6,919,121
结束日期
2026-11-03
市场开放时间
Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ET

结算方

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Democrats hold an 81.5% implied probability of winning House control in the 2026 midterms, reflecting trader consensus on structural headwinds for the president's party. Republicans enter with a narrow majority and must defend vulnerable battleground districts, while Democrats need only modest net gains of roughly three to five seats to flip the chamber. Recent generic ballot polling shows a consistent Democratic advantage in the low single digits, reinforced by special election results demonstrating overperformance relative to 2024 baselines. Midcycle redistricting in states such as Texas and Louisiana has produced limited Republican offsets without altering the overall positioning. Historical midterm patterns of losses for the incumbent president's party continue to shape assessments ahead of November voting.

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
交易量
$6,919,121
结束日期
2026-11-03
市场开放时间
Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ET

结算方

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"哪一方将在2026年赢得众议院？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"民主党"，概率为 82%，其次是"共和党"，概率为 20%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 82¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 82%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"哪一方将在2026年赢得众议院？"已产生 $6.9 million 的总交易量（自Jul 11, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"哪一方将在2026年赢得众议院？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"哪一方将在2026年赢得众议院？"的当前领先者是"民主党"，概率为 82%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 82%。紧随其后的结果是"共和党"，概率为 20%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"哪一方将在2026年赢得众议院？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。