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Hamas predictions & odds

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Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

6%

June 30, 2026

$2M Vol.

$33.8K Liq.

169

Ends in 15 days

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

5%

June 30

$4M Vol.

$19.3K Liq.

978

Ends in 14 days

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

7%

June 30

$3M Vol.

$3.6K Liq.

354

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

6%

June 30

$650K Vol.

$10.4K Liq.

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

1%

June 30

$1M Vol.

$29.0K Liq.

57

Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?

Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?

1%

$105K Vol.

$3.1K Liq.

15

Ends in 14 days

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

14%

$51.4K Vol.

$9.5K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

34%

December 31

$634K Vol.

$26.4K Liq.

10

Israel false flag attack confirmed?

Israel false flag attack confirmed?

Yes

$1 Vol.

$141 Liq.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

52%

4

$7M Vol.

$259K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?

Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?

6%

$40.1K Vol.

$10.7K Liq.

1

Ends in 14 days

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

42%

Likud

$22.8K Vol.

$96.3K Liq.

2

Ends in 4 months

Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?

Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?

6%

June 30

$150K Vol.

$104 Liq.

31

Ends in 14 days

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

32%

December 31

$405K Vol.

$184K Liq.

24

Ends in 7 months

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

15%

$216K Vol.

$19.5K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group A

Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group A

100%

MASQ

$8.2K Vol.

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

2%

June 13

$57M Vol.

$5M today

$3M Liq.

1,039

MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

31%

December 31, 2026

$3M Vol.

$9.0K Liq.

135

Ends in 7 months

Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group A

Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group A

100%

LPH Gaming

$31.8K Vol.

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

30%

8

$2M Vol.

$130K Liq.

34

Ends in 7 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Hamas.

Polymarket currently hosts 103 active markets for Hamas that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $80.6M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 100% chance to June 14. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Hamas predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.