Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a consistent first-round polling edge of roughly 38-42 percent against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 31-35 percent, a gap widened by a mid-May controversy involving the senator’s reported ties to a disgraced banker that shifted momentum away from the Liberal Party candidate. The fragmented field, including rising support for Renan Santos among younger voters and established governors such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, keeps any single challenger from consolidating the opposition vote ahead of official candidacies in July. With the October 4 first round still months away, trader pricing on narrow victory margins for Lula reflects this competitive landscape and the potential for late shifts in turnout or alliances.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5% 35%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10% 21%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5% 13%
雷南·桑托斯胜利 8.4%
$236,998 交易量
$236,998 交易量
2026-10-04
卢拉·达席尔瓦15%+
5%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15%
5%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10%
21%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5%
35%
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗10%+
5%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10%
5%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5%
13%
雷南·桑托斯胜利
8%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯胜利
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔胜利
<1%
其他
7%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5% 35%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10% 21%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5% 13%
雷南·桑托斯胜利 8.4%
$236,998 交易量
$236,998 交易量
2026-10-04
卢拉·达席尔瓦15%+
$5,311 交易量
5%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15%
$2,723 交易量
5%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10%
$7,089 交易量
21%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5%
$3,097 交易量
35%
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗10%+
$2,128 交易量
5%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10%
$2,453 交易量
5%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5%
$5,834 交易量
13%
雷南·桑托斯胜利
$202,466 交易量
8%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯胜利
$1,771 交易量
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔胜利
$1,807 交易量
<1%
其他
$2,319 交易量
7%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a consistent first-round polling edge of roughly 38-42 percent against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 31-35 percent, a gap widened by a mid-May controversy involving the senator’s reported ties to a disgraced banker that shifted momentum away from the Liberal Party candidate. The fragmented field, including rising support for Renan Santos among younger voters and established governors such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, keeps any single challenger from consolidating the opposition vote ahead of official candidacies in July. With the October 4 first round still months away, trader pricing on narrow victory margins for Lula reflects this competitive landscape and the potential for late shifts in turnout or alliances.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$236,998结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a consistent first-round polling edge of roughly 38-42 percent against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 31-35 percent, a gap widened by a mid-May controversy involving the senator’s reported ties to a disgraced banker that shifted momentum away from the Liberal Party candidate. The fragmented field, including rising support for Renan Santos among younger voters and established governors such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, keeps any single challenger from consolidating the opposition vote ahead of official candidacies in July. With the October 4 first round still months away, trader pricing on narrow victory margins for Lula reflects this competitive landscape and the potential for late shifts in turnout or alliances.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$236,998结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a consistent first-round polling edge of roughly 38-42 percent against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 31-35 percent, a gap widened by a mid-May controversy involving the senator’s reported ties to a disgraced banker that shifted momentum away from the Liberal Party candidate. The fragmented field, including rising support for Renan Santos among younger voters and established governors such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, keeps any single challenger from consolidating the opposition vote ahead of official candidacies in July. With the October 4 first round still months away, trader pricing on narrow victory margins for Lula reflects this competitive landscape and the potential for late shifts in turnout or alliances.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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