Abelardo de la Espriella secured a first-round plurality in Colombia’s May 31 presidential election with roughly 44 percent of the vote, ahead of Iván Cepeda Castro’s approximately 41 percent, leaving no candidate with an outright majority and advancing the pair to a June 21 runoff. This outcome reflects voter shifts toward tougher security policies amid concerns over armed groups and crime, combined with endorsements consolidating conservative support after third-place finisher Paloma Valencia exited the race. Cepeda, aligned with outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s Historic Pact, has raised questions about the count pending full verification. The market’s near-certainty on de la Espriella’s first-round lead stems from these certified preliminary tallies, though final official confirmation or successful legal challenges could still alter resolution if discrepancies emerge before certification.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于de la Espriella Win 99.6%
Cepeda Castro 20%+ <1%
Cepeda Castro 15-20% <1%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% <1%
$115,589 交易量
$115,589 交易量
2026-05-31
Cepeda Castro 20%+
<1%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
<1%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
<1%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
<1%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
<1%
de la Espriella Win
100%
Valencia Win
<1%
Other
<1%
de la Espriella Win 99.6%
Cepeda Castro 20%+ <1%
Cepeda Castro 15-20% <1%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% <1%
$115,589 交易量
$115,589 交易量
2026-05-31
Cepeda Castro 20%+
$23,472 交易量
<1%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
$11,408 交易量
<1%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
$16,373 交易量
<1%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
$11,454 交易量
<1%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
$17,239 交易量
<1%
de la Espriella Win
$20,774 交易量
100%
Valencia Win
$6,992 交易量
<1%
Other
$7,875 交易量
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Abelardo de la Espriella secured a first-round plurality in Colombia’s May 31 presidential election with roughly 44 percent of the vote, ahead of Iván Cepeda Castro’s approximately 41 percent, leaving no candidate with an outright majority and advancing the pair to a June 21 runoff. This outcome reflects voter shifts toward tougher security policies amid concerns over armed groups and crime, combined with endorsements consolidating conservative support after third-place finisher Paloma Valencia exited the race. Cepeda, aligned with outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s Historic Pact, has raised questions about the count pending full verification. The market’s near-certainty on de la Espriella’s first-round lead stems from these certified preliminary tallies, though final official confirmation or successful legal challenges could still alter resolution if discrepancies emerge before certification.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市场开放时间： Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$115,589结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Abelardo de la Espriella secured a first-round plurality in Colombia’s May 31 presidential election with roughly 44 percent of the vote, ahead of Iván Cepeda Castro’s approximately 41 percent, leaving no candidate with an outright majority and advancing the pair to a June 21 runoff. This outcome reflects voter shifts toward tougher security policies amid concerns over armed groups and crime, combined with endorsements consolidating conservative support after third-place finisher Paloma Valencia exited the race. Cepeda, aligned with outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s Historic Pact, has raised questions about the count pending full verification. The market’s near-certainty on de la Espriella’s first-round lead stems from these certified preliminary tallies, though final official confirmation or successful legal challenges could still alter resolution if discrepancies emerge before certification.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$115,589结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Abelardo de la Espriella secured a first-round plurality in Colombia’s May 31 presidential election with roughly 44 percent of the vote, ahead of Iván Cepeda Castro’s approximately 41 percent, leaving no candidate with an outright majority and advancing the pair to a June 21 runoff. This outcome reflects voter shifts toward tougher security policies amid concerns over armed groups and crime, combined with endorsements consolidating conservative support after third-place finisher Paloma Valencia exited the race. Cepeda, aligned with outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s Historic Pact, has raised questions about the count pending full verification. The market’s near-certainty on de la Espriella’s first-round lead stems from these certified preliminary tallies, though final official confirmation or successful legal challenges could still alter resolution if discrepancies emerge before certification.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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