Abelardo de la Espriella advanced to the June 21 runoff after securing a first-round plurality of roughly 44 percent on May 31, ahead of Iván Cepeda Castro at 41 percent, reflecting voter priorities on crime and security amid rising violence and armed group activity. As the right-wing outsider candidate of Defenders of the Homeland, de la Espriella capitalized on dissatisfaction with the outgoing Petro administration’s policies, drawing endorsements from center-right figures including Paloma Valencia after she placed third. Cepeda, the Historic Pact nominee and Petro ally, maintained a competitive position through appeals to progressive reforms and peace processes, though the first-round split has positioned the race as closely contested with endorsements and turnout among non-advancing voters likely to shape the outcome. The market consensus reflects these verified election results and coalition dynamics ahead of the runoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Legal challenge filed to compel Iván Cepeda to attend presidential debates
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 17%23%
A tutela action was filed seeking to obligate Iván Cepeda to participate in at least two presidential debates before the first round, arguing that his absence creates an information asymmetry affecting voters' right to informed decisions. This reflects ongoing debate about debate participation in Colombia.
Abelardo de la Espriella wins first round, forcing runoff with Iván Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 86%17%
In a surprising first-round result, Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.73% of the vote, followed by Iván Cepeda with 40.91%, necessitating a runoff election on June 21, 2026. This outcome highlighted the polarized political landscape between the right-wing and left-wing candidates.
Iván Cepeda challenges preliminary results citing irregularities
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 22%18%
Following the first round, Iván Cepeda expressed concerns about atypical voting patterns at some polling stations and indicated his campaign would verify the integrity of the vote count, reflecting tensions in the electoral process.
First round election results: Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda advance to runoff
In a surprising outcome, right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella led the first round of the presidential election, narrowly ahead of leftist Iván Cepeda. Both candidates advanced to the runoff scheduled for June 21, setting the stage for a polarized contest.
Final campaign surge boosts Abelardo de la Espriella's chances ahead of election
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 63%19%
In the final days before the May 31 election, Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign gained momentum, with polls and market prices showing a significant rise, overtaking Paloma Valencia and positioning him as the main right-wing contender against Iván Cepeda.
Iván Cepeda faces complaints for violating electoral silence with campaign events
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 32%7%
Iván Cepeda was formally denounced for holding mass campaign events during the legally mandated electoral silence period, raising legal and reputational challenges that likely contributed to a decline in his market price.
Álvaro Uribe accuses Iván Cepeda of paramilitary ties and undermining peace
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 32%11%
Former president Álvaro Uribe publicly accused Iván Cepeda of offering benefits to paramilitaries and having links with FARC dissidents, intensifying political polarization and impacting Cepeda's campaign and market support.
Abelardo de la Espriella launches luxury campaign merchandise including $20 million watch
De la Espriella gained media attention for launching exclusive and expensive campaign merchandise, including a limited edition watch priced at 20 million pesos. This move sparked mixed reactions and highlighted his affluent campaign style.
Iván Cepeda closes presidential campaign with large rally in Bogotá
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 44%1%
Iván Cepeda held a major campaign closing event in Bogotá's Plaza de Bolívar, demonstrating strong grassroots support from the Historic Pact coalition ahead of the runoff election.
Iván Cepeda closes campaign with rally in Bogotá’s Plaza de Bolívar
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 20%12%
Cepeda held a large rally in Bogotá to close his campaign. While attendance was strong, media coverage emphasized his declining poll numbers, coinciding with a market dip from 32 % to 20 % on June 1.
Polls show Abelardo de la Espriella surging ahead of Iván Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 56%11%
Recent polls and campaign developments showed De la Espriella gaining significant ground over Cepeda, pushing his market price sharply upward as he became the clear frontrunner ahead of the May 31 election.
Iván Cepeda closes presidential campaign with large rally in Bogotá
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 64%20%
Iván Cepeda held a major campaign closing event in Bogotá's Plaza de Bolívar, demonstrating strong grassroots support and boosting his final market price before the election.
Campaign headquarters of Paloma Valencia vandalized amid protests in Bogotá
Paloma Valencia drops to 2%12%
Paloma Valencia's campaign office in Bogotá was attacked by masked protesters, causing damage and raising concerns about political violence and opposition safety, which contributed to her declining support and market price drop.
Abelardo de la Espriella holds large campaign closing rally in Bogota
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 71%21%
De la Espriella's closing rally featured a highly theatrical, nationalist, and conservative message, energizing his base and contributing to a surge in his market price from 50% to 71% in the final days before the election.
Colombia’s ELN rebels and FARC dissidents announce ceasefire for presidential election
The ELN and FARC dissident groups announced ceasefires around the May 31 election date, reducing violence and potentially impacting voter turnout and election dynamics. This development affected all candidates but was significant for the overall election environment.
Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign gains momentum with new regional ally Jaime Andrés Beltrán
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%11%
The addition of Jaime Andrés Beltrán, former mayor of Bucaramanga, as regional campaign manager strengthened De la Espriella's territorial reach and boosted market confidence, reflected in a sharp price increase.
Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela and regional influence
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 45%12%
President Petro's public confrontation with Donald Trump regarding Venezuela and regional security influenced the political climate and market sentiment for the presidential election.
Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro lead final polls before election
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%9%
By mid-May 2026, Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro were the top contenders with market prices at 44% and 42% respectively, reflecting a tight race heading into the election.
Revelation of Abelardo de la Espriella's military service exemption sparks controversy
The Colombian Army confirmed that Abelardo de la Espriella was declared unfit for military service in 1994, leading to public debate given his patriotic campaign rhetoric. This revelation was used by opponents to question his credibility and patriotism.
Abelardo de la Espriella launches luxury campaign merchandise
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 28%6%
Abelardo de la Espriella launched a luxury watch priced at 20 million pesos as part of his campaign merchandise, attracting media attention and reflecting his campaign's blend of political and entrepreneurial strategies.
Final polls show close race between Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro
As the election nears, polls indicate a tight contest between Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro, with market prices reflecting this competitive dynamic.
Abelardo de la Espriella's military service status revealed
The Colombian Army confirmed that Abelardo de la Espriella was declared unfit for military service in 1994, a fact that sparked public debate given his campaign's emphasis on patriotism and security.
Abelardo de la Espriella holds large campaign closing event in Bucaramanga
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 45%2%
De la Espriella's campaign rally in Bucaramanga attracted thousands, signaling strong grassroots support and momentum in the final weeks before the election, which was reflected in rising market prices.
Assassination of two campaign members shocks Abelardo de la Espriella's team
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 63%19%
The killing of two members of Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign in Meta raised concerns about political violence and intimidation, eliciting international condolences and highlighting security challenges affecting the election environment and possibly rallying support for De la Espriella.
Two campaign workers for Abelardo de la Espriella killed in Meta, Colombia
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 40%5%
Two local campaign workers for De la Espriella were assassinated in Meta province, raising security concerns and political tensions ahead of the election, which underscored the risks faced by political campaigns in violent regions and impacted market perceptions of campaign stability.
Abelardo de la Espriella surges in polls, closing gap with Iván Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 50%6%
Recent polls showed De la Espriella gaining significant voter support, narrowing the gap with Iván Cepeda and surpassing Paloma Valencia, reflecting his campaign momentum and contributing to his market price increase.
Late surge for Abelardo de la Espriella ahead of election day
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%16%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market probability rebounded to 44% on election day, indicating a late surge in voter support possibly due to final campaign efforts and strategic messaging.
Abelardo de la Espriella distances himself from Paloma Valencia in latest AtlasIntel poll
Paloma Valencia drops to 9%7%
Latest AtlasIntel poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella consolidating his lead over Paloma Valencia, who continues to lose support, confirming the market's decline in her price.
Latest AtlasIntel poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella widening lead over Paloma Valencia
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 41%16%
In mid-May 2026, Abelardo de la Espriella's support surged to 32.9%, distancing himself from Paloma Valencia at 16.7%, consolidating his frontrunner status ahead of the election.
Abelardo de la Espriella surpasses Paloma Valencia in AtlasIntel poll, nears Iván Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 33%7%
In a key poll by AtlasIntel, De la Espriella gained 32.9% support, distancing himself from Paloma Valencia at 16.7% and closing the gap with Iván Cepeda, signaling a surge in his campaign momentum and market price.
De la Espriella invests 195 million pesos in private AtlasIntel polling
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 46%7%
De la Espriella's campaign invested heavily in private polling services from AtlasIntel to track electoral performance daily, enhancing campaign strategy and contributing to a price increase from 39% to 46%.
Abelardo de la Espriella announces José Manuel Restrepo as vice-presidential running mate
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 43%3%
De la Espriella's announcement of respected economist and ex-minister José Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential candidate enhanced his campaign's credibility and appeal, contributing to a significant price increase in the market.
Iván Cepeda faces public criticism over conflict victims controversy
Iván Cepeda was publicly confronted by victims of child recruitment by FARC, an incident that sparked political debate and criticism, including from rival candidate Vicky Dávila, impacting Cepeda's public image.
Iván Cepeda asks for probe into Haitian ambassador’s alleged campaign activity
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 32%9%
Cepeda publicly demanded an investigation into Haitian ambassador Vilma Velásquez for alleged political campaigning, sparking controversy and a further decline of his market price from 41 % to 32 % as voters questioned his focus on legal battles.
Iván Cepeda asks probe of Haiti ambassador Vilma Velásquez for campaign interference
Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 28%15%
Cepeda publicly demanded an investigation of Ambassador Vilma Velásquez for alleged political campaigning, reigniting concerns about his adherence to political‑neutrality rules. The controversy accelerated Cepeda’s slide – his market price fell from 43 % on 10 May to 28 % on 20 May.
Iván Cepeda calls for investigation into ambassador Vilma Velásquez for political activity
Iván Cepeda publicly requested an investigation into Ambassador Vilma Velásquez for allegedly using her diplomatic position to promote political campaigns, highlighting concerns about political interference by public officials.
Abelardo de la Espriella surges in polls with tough stance on crime
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%16%
Abelardo de la Espriella's poll numbers surged as he emphasized a hardline approach against criminal groups, appealing to voters concerned about security. This caused a significant market price increase for his candidacy.
Abelardo de la Espriella rebounds with strong campaign events
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%23%
Abelardo de la Espriella regained support through effective campaigning and positive media coverage, with market prices rising from 21% to 44%.
Abelardo de la Espriella reaches peak market support
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%22%
Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign saw a late-stage surge in market support, positioning him as a leading contender.
Abelardo de la Espriella leads Polymarket betting odds for second round
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%12%
Polymarket data showed Abelardo de la Espriella with a 63% chance to reach the second round, reflecting strong market confidence in his electoral prospects and contributing to his price surge.
Prediction market shows Abelardo de la Espriella closing gap with Iván Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 65%22%
Polymarket data indicated a near tie between De la Espriella and Cepeda, with 38% and 39% respectively, reflecting growing market confidence in De la Espriella's chances. This coincided with his campaign gaining support from influential political groups, boosting his perceived electability.
Polymarket prediction platform shows Abelardo de la Espriella nearly tied with Iván Cepeda
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 43%3%
International prediction market Polymarket indicated a statistical tie between De la Espriella and Cepeda, reflecting growing confidence in De la Espriella's chances and likely influencing market prices upward for him and downward for Cepeda.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws candidacy and endorses Iván Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo, a minor candidate, withdrew from the presidential race and publicly endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating left-wing support behind Cepeda ahead of the runoff election.
Ex‑Bucaramanga mayor joins de la Espriella’s campaign as regional manager
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 52%14%
Former Bucaramanga mayor Beltrán announced he would serve as regional manager for de la Espriella’s campaign, positioning the candidate as a unifying figure for right‑wing voters. The endorsement coincided with a 14‑point jump for de la Espriella from 38 % on 1 May to 52 % on 8 May.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws from presidential race, endorses Iván Cepeda
Luis Gilberto Murillo formally exited the presidential race and endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating left-wing support and causing Murillo's market price to drop to zero while boosting Cepeda's chances.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws and endorses Iván Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 65%15%
Luis Gilberto Murillo formally withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating left-wing support behind Cepeda and causing Murillo's market price to drop to zero while boosting Cepeda's chances.
Abelardo de la Espriella rebounds in final campaign stretch
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 35%14%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price rose from 21% to 35% in early May 2026, indicating a recovery in voter support due to effective last-minute campaigning and endorsements.
Abelardo de la Espriella unveils 20 million‑peso luxury campaign watch
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 48%6%
Espriella released a limited‑edition luxury watch priced at 20 million pesos, generating viral social‑media buzz that lifted his market perception from 42 % to 48 % as supporters praised his branding tactics.
Vicky Dávila drops out after health issues
Vicky Dávila (IND) dips to 0%1%
Vicky Dávila announced she could not continue due to health concerns, sending her price to zero.
Jaime Andrés Beltrán joins Abelardo de la Espriella’s campaign as regional manager
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%7%
The former mayor of Bucaramanga, Jaime Andrés Beltrán, publicly joined Espriella’s campaign as regional manager, fueling a media surge that lifted Espriella’s price from the low‑30s to the mid‑40s.
Carlos Felipe Córdoba’s campaign disbands amid funding scandal
Carlos Felipe Córdoba plunges to 0%33%
A funding scandal forced the disbanding of Córdoba’s campaign, collapsing his market price.
Paloma Valencia's support peaks amid growing media attention
Paloma Valencia rises to 44%4%
Media coverage and public interest pushed Paloma Valencia's market probability to a peak of 44%, reflecting heightened visibility and voter engagement.
Iván Cepeda Castro maintains lead in polls amid campaign intensification
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 41%3%
Iván Cepeda Castro sustained his lead in polls as the campaign intensified, reflecting continued voter support for the left-wing candidate. This stability was mirrored in market prices, reinforcing his frontrunner status.
Vicky Dávila leaves Paloma Valencia’s coalition and returns to journalism
Vicky Dávila (IND) plunges to 0%50%
Vicky Dávila left the right-wing coalition supporting Paloma Valencia after losing the internal primary, effectively ending her presidential bid and returning to journalism, which impacted the right-wing vote dynamics.
Roy Barreras eliminated in inter‑party primaries
Roy Barreras drops to 0%7%
Roy Barreras failed to secure enough votes in the primary round, causing his market price to drop to zero.
Polls show Iván Cepeda maintains lead but faces stagnation in voter support
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 37%10%
Polls indicated Cepeda's lead remained steady but without growth, raising concerns about his ability to win outright in the first round. This contributed to price fluctuations and uncertainty in the market regarding his ultimate chances.
Paloma Valencia reaches peak support amid campaign momentum
Paloma Valencia jumps to 47%6%
Paloma Valencia's market price peaked at 47% in early April 2026, reflecting sustained campaign momentum and growing voter enthusiasm ahead of the election.
Abelardo de la Espriella invests 195 million pesos in private electoral tracking service
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 19%4%
De la Espriella's campaign contracted AtlasIntel's private tracker service to monitor daily electoral pulse, enabling strategic adjustments and possibly improving campaign effectiveness, which contributed to his rising market support.
Colombian city Cartagena replaces horse buggies with electric carriages amid protests
Cartagena's move to replace horse-drawn buggies with electric carriages following animal welfare protests reflects social and cultural shifts in Colombia, indirectly influencing public sentiment and political discourse during the election period, with minor impact on candidate standings.
Abelardo de la Espriella vows to deploy army to streets amid rising campaign tensions
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 19%3%
De la Espriella's strong law-and-order rhetoric, including a promise to deploy the army to streets, aimed to consolidate his base and counter opponents. This statement likely contributed to volatility in his market price as voters reacted.
Small plane crash kills Colombian congress member Diógenes Quintero
The death of congressman Diógenes Quintero in a plane crash was a significant event affecting political dynamics, potentially influencing voter sentiment and candidate support.
Paloma Valencia's campaign surges after major policy announcement
Paloma Valencia surges to 41%32%
Paloma Valencia's market probability rose sharply from 9% to 41% following a major policy announcement that resonated with voters, marking her as a significant contender.
Poll shows Paloma Valencia surges to second place, challenging Iván Cepeda
Paloma Valencia surges to 40%18%
A Centro Nacional de Consultoría poll revealed Paloma Valencia rising to second place with 22.2%, displacing De la Espriella and creating a statistical tie with Cepeda in runoff scenarios. This reshaped the race dynamics, causing market fluctuations as Valencia emerged as a significant contender.
Paloma Valencia surges in polls after strong debate showing
Paloma Valencia surges to 39%30%
Paloma Valencia's market price jumped from 9% to 39% in March 2026 following a well-received debate performance that energized her campaign and attracted new supporters.
Attempted assassination plot against Abelardo de la Espriella foiled in Envigado
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 25%11%
Security forces prevented an armed individual posing as a campaign bodyguard from attacking De la Espriella during a political event. This incident heightened concerns about candidate safety and may have rallied public sympathy, contributing to a rebound in his market price.
Foiled assassination attempt against Abelardo de la Espriella during campaign event
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 25%11%
Authorities prevented a potential attack on De La Espriella when a man posing as a security escort was found armed at a campaign event in Envigado. This incident raised security concerns but reinforced his campaign's visibility, contributing to a price rebound from 14% to 25%.
Small plane crash in Colombia kills 15 including congress member
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 41%3%
A tragic plane crash killed 15 people including a congressman and a congressional candidate, causing political shockwaves and impacting the election dynamics, particularly affecting the market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro and Abelardo de la Espriella as political stability concerns rose.
Abelardo de la Espriella's support plummets amid controversy
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 14%7%
Controversial statements and campaign missteps caused Abelardo de la Espriella's market support to fall sharply from 21% to 14%.
Abelardo de la Espriella faces controversy, causing sharp drop in support
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 10%23%
A controversy involving Abelardo de la Espriella led to a significant drop in his market probability from 33% to 10%, indicating voter backlash and uncertainty about his candidacy.
Security incident: Suspected intelligence operation foiled during Abelardo de la Espriella campaign event in Envigado
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 14%26%
A security breach involving a person posing as a security guard with surveillance equipment was uncovered, which raised concerns about campaign safety and potentially influenced voter perceptions of the candidate's vulnerability.
Abelardo de la Espriella's support collapses after controversy
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 14%25%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price dropped from 39% to 14% in mid-March 2026 due to a major controversy that damaged his public image and voter trust.
Victims of FARC publicly rebuke Iván Cepeda – Vicky Dávila weighs in
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 39%8%
A video circulated showing victims of the FARC publicly rebuking Cepeda for the number of child victims. Vicky Dávila amplified the criticism on social media. The controversy caused Cepeda’s market price to tumble 8 points from 47 % on 8 Mar to 39 % on 15 Mar, while de la Espriella’s price stayed flat.
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe launches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a defender of his son’s legacy and entering a crowded field, which boosted interest in candidates perceived as rivals or allies, notably affecting Abelardo de la Espriella’s support.
Paloma Valencia announces Juan Daniel Oviedo as vice-presidential running mate
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%1%
Paloma Valencia, center-right candidate, confirmed Juan Daniel Oviedo as her vice-presidential candidate, forming a coalition ticket for the 2026 presidential election, aiming to consolidate center-right votes.
Paloma Valencia wins Democratic Center primary for presidency
Paloma Valencia surges to 38%16%
Paloma Valencia secured the Democratic Center's nomination after winning the party's primary, becoming the main right-wing candidate and impacting market prices by consolidating conservative support.
Paloma Valencia sees surge in presidential campaign support
Paloma Valencia surges to 28%17%
Paloma Valencia's campaign experienced a sharp increase in market confidence, reflecting a shift in the competitive landscape.
Paloma Valencia's surge after strong debate performance
Paloma Valencia surges to 37%26%
Paloma Valencia's impressive debate performance led to a sharp increase in market support from 11% to 37%, signaling renewed voter interest.
Market reacts to narrowing candidate field ahead of March primaries
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 28%10%
As the field of presidential candidates narrowed in early March with interparty primaries, market prices adjusted to reflect the changing competitive landscape, notably affecting Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia's standings.
Frustrated assassination attempt on Abelardo de la Espriella during campaign event
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 19%15%
Security forces thwarted a suspected assassination attempt on De La Espriella in Envigado, heightening the campaign's tension and possibly rallying support around him due to increased visibility and sympathy.
Claudia López wins centrist primary for presidential race
Claudia López (IND) plunges to 0%50%
Former Bogotá mayor Claudia López won the centrist primary, positioning herself as a leading candidate among centrists, though her market price remained low compared to frontrunners.
Iván Cepeda announces Aida Quilcué as vice-presidential candidate
Following his overwhelming majority in the parliamentary elections, Iván Cepeda announced Aida Quilcué as his running mate, solidifying his ticket for the presidential race and reinforcing his campaign's focus on social justice and inclusion.
Iván Cepeda picks Indigenous leader Aída Quilcué as running mate
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 36%8%
Cepeda announced that Indigenous leader Aída Quilcué would be his vice‑presidential running mate, shifting the campaign narrative toward indigenous rights and causing a sharp drop in his market probability as some moderate voters reacted negatively.
Iván Cepeda announces Aída Quilcué as vice-presidential running mate
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 43%5%
Cepeda's selection of Indigenous leader Aída Quilcué as his vice-presidential candidate reinforced his campaign's social justice and diversity narrative, consolidating his base and contributing to a market price increase.
Paloma Valencia wins Democratic Center primary with over 3 million votes
Paloma Valencia jumps to 23%14%
Paloma Valencia's decisive victory in the Democratic Center primary established her as the official far-right candidate, initially boosting her market price. However, her support later declined as the campaign progressed.
Iván Cepeda incriminated by child‑victim video; Vicky Dávila condemns him
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 36%8%
A video circulated showing victims of the FARC confronting Cepeda over the number of child victims, generating negative social media reactions and pulling his market price down by eight points the next day.
Paloma Valencia wins center-right primary for Democratic Center party
Paloma Valencia jumps to 33%11%
Paloma Valencia won the center-right primary election, securing her position as the official candidate of the Democratic Center party, consolidating the right-wing vote ahead of the presidential election.
Paloma Valencia wins center-right primary with significant majority
Claudia López (IND) dips to 0%1%
Paloma Valencia secured a decisive victory in the center-right primary election, obtaining over 3 million votes and becoming the official candidate of the Democratic Center party. This positioned her as a leading conservative contender ahead of the presidential election.
Iván Cepeda Castro peaks in polls amid strong campaign performance
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 56%17%
Iván Cepeda Castro's market price peaked at 56% in early March 2026, reflecting strong debate performances and effective voter outreach that positioned him as a leading candidate.
Sergio Fajardo exits race after poor poll results
Sergio Fajardo (DC) plunges to 0%15%
Facing consistently low poll numbers, Sergio Fajardo suspended his campaign, driving his price to zero.
Ivan Cepeda leads in polls as presidential field narrows
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 44%5%
Senator Ivan Cepeda, from President Gustavo Petro's coalition, maintained a lead in polls, influencing market expectations for the upcoming election.
Interparty primaries narrow Colombia presidential field
Paloma Valencia drops to 10%12%
Several candidates competed in interparty primaries, leading to a narrowing of the field and causing price adjustments for candidates like Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella as voter preferences consolidated.
Ex-mayor Jaime Andrés Beltrán joins Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign as regional manager
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 40%3%
Jaime Andrés Beltrán, known as 'the Bukele Colombian', abandoned his Senate bid to support De la Espriella's campaign, strengthening the candidate's regional presence and boosting his market position.
Political violence impacts candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay's legacy
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 30%8%
The assassination of Miguel Uribe Turbay in 2025 continued to resonate in the political landscape, with his father's candidacy and the unresolved motives behind the killing influencing voter sentiment and market prices for related candidates.
DEA labels President Gustavo Petro a priority target in drug investigation
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%2%
The U.S. DEA’s designation of President Petro as a priority target raised concerns about his administration’s integrity, leading to a decline in support for candidates aligned with his coalition, particularly impacting Iván Cepeda Castro’s odds.
Iván Cepeda Castro surges in polls amid growing grassroots support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 50%11%
Iván Cepeda Castro's market probability jumped to 50% as grassroots movements and endorsements bolstered his campaign, signaling a shift in voter sentiment.
Abelardo de la Espriella announces lawsuit against Netflix
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 38%1%
De la Espriella publicly announced legal action against Netflix to defend his family's honor, which increased his media visibility and may have influenced public perception and market interest in his candidacy.
Abelardo de la Espriella announces José Manuel Restrepo as vice-presidential running mate
De la Espriella's announcement of economist and ex-minister José Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential candidate strengthened his campaign's credibility and appeal, leading to increased market confidence and price gains.
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe launches presidential bid
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, reviving the Uribe political brand and drawing attention to the Historical Pact coalition, where Iván Cepeda is a leading figure, boosting his perceived electability.
Abelardo de la Espriella empata con Iván Cepeda según firma internacional de predicciones
Polymarket's international prediction platform showed De La Espriella and Iván Cepeda tied at 39% and 38% respectively, indicating a competitive race with De La Espriella gaining ground in global prediction markets.
AtlasIntel/Semana poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella leading first round
A major poll by AtlasIntel for Semana placed De la Espriella in the lead with 33%, narrowly ahead of Iván Cepeda at 31.3%. This early polling data likely supported market confidence in De la Espriella's viability as a frontrunner.
Abelardo de la Espriella joins international right-wing alliance with Carta de Madrid
De la Espriella formalized his adhesion to the Carta de Madrid, aligning with prominent right-wing leaders like Javier Milei and Santiago Abascal. This move bolstered his international profile and solidified his right-wing credentials, likely contributing to early market confidence in his candidacy.
Abelardo de la Espriella leads AtlasIntel/Semana poll for first round
A major poll by AtlasIntel for Semana showed Abelardo de la Espriella leading the first round with 33%, narrowly ahead of Iván Cepeda at 31.3%. This early poll established De la Espriella as a top contender, boosting his market price from 39% to 39%.
De La Espriella announces economist José Manuel Restrepo as running mate
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%5%
De La Espriella selected José Manuel Restrepo, a former finance minister, as his vice-presidential candidate, enhancing his campaign's credibility and appealing to moderate voters, which contributed to his market gains.
Iván Cepeda files criminal complaint against former President Pastrana over Epstein scandal
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 40%10%
Cepeda's announcement of a criminal complaint against former President Andrés Pastrana over alleged misuse of military assets for Jeffrey Epstein's associate raised his profile and stirred political debate, temporarily boosting his market support.
Abelardo de la Espriella signals political reconciliation with Vicky Dávila
De la Espriella publicly responded to Vicky Dávila's message endorsing a united front against Iván Cepeda, signaling a strategic reconciliation within the right-wing camp. This rapprochement was seen as an effort to consolidate support and strengthen De la Espriella's position, impacting market perceptions positively.
Iván Cepeda excluded from left-wing primary, forced to run directly in first round
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 30%9%
Colombia's National Electoral Council excluded Iván Cepeda from the left-wing interparty primary, causing uncertainty and a drop in his market price from 39% to 30%. This decision fragmented the left-wing coalition and altered the electoral dynamics.
Colombian President Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 41%7%
A diplomatic thaw between Petro and Trump, marked by preparations for a high-stakes meeting, reduced political tensions and improved market confidence in the left-wing coalition's stability, benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro's standing.
Gustavo Petro meets US President Trump, easing diplomatic tensions
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 42%8%
The high‑profile meeting reduced concerns about US sanctions, indirectly benefiting candidates aligned with Petro’s agenda, notably Iván Cepeda.
Abelardo De La Espriella announces José Manuel Restrepo as running mate
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 44%4%
The candidate announced economist and former minister José Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential running mate, signaling a strong, credible team that could appeal to a broader electorate and boost his campaign momentum.
Abelardo de la Espriella announces José Manuel Restrepo as vice-presidential running mate
The announcement of José Manuel Restrepo, an experienced economist and former minister, as de la Espriella's running mate strengthened his campaign's credibility and market position.
Abelardo de la Espriella se acerca en última encuesta AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel's latest poll showed De La Espriella at 32.9% and Iván Cepeda at 37.6%, with De La Espriella gaining ground as the race intensified.
Abelardo de la Espriella leads AtlasIntel/Semana poll ahead of first round
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 40%5%
A poll conducted by AtlasIntel for Semana showed De la Espriella leading with 33% against Iván Cepeda's 31.3%, confirming his status as a frontrunner and boosting market confidence in his electoral prospects.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 38%4%
President Petro expressed optimism about a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw after months of tension and sanctions, which influenced market perceptions of political stability and candidate viability, particularly benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro.
Creemos movement endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for presidency
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 41%5%
The endorsement by the Creemos political movement, led by Medellin's mayor Federico Gutierrez, significantly strengthened De la Espriella's campaign by consolidating right-wing support and signaling a shift in opposition dynamics. This alliance contributed to De la Espriella's rise in market prices.
Abelardo de la Espriella Announces Education Alliance with Antioquia Councillor Luis Guillermo Patiño
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 46%5%
De La Espriella formally allied with Patiño, bringing regional education expertise to his campaign and strengthening his opposition platform against the current government.
De La Espriella Backs Antioquia Education Leader Patiño
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 39%1%
De La Espriella formally allied with Luis Guillermo Patiño, a Creemos candidate, to promote education reform. This strategic partnership likely strengthened his campaign program and market position.
Colombian President Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 42%4%
President Gustavo Petro expressed optimism about a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw that influenced market confidence in candidates associated with Petro's coalition, including Iván Cepeda Castro.
Abelardo de la Espriella lidera la 1ª vuelta en la encuesta Atlas-Semana
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 38%2%
AtlasIntel's Semana poll showed De La Espriella leading with 33.0% in the first round scenario, ahead of Iván Cepeda at 31.3%, signaling strong early campaign performance and market confidence.
De La Espriella urges Trump to demand full guarantees for Colombian democracy
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 47%3%
De La Espriella publicly called on U.S. President Trump to ensure democratic guarantees in Colombia's election, criticizing President Petro and raising his profile as a defender of democracy against leftist influence, which likely boosted his market support.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro optimistic about upcoming meeting with U.S. President Trump
President Petro announced optimism about a scheduled White House meeting with U.S. President Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw after months of tension including visa revocations and sanctions. This development suggested potential easing of bilateral tensions, which could affect election dynamics and voter confidence in Petro’s coalition.
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in polls amid left-wing coalition support
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 39%19%
Senator Iván Cepeda Castro, representing the Historical Pact coalition, gained significant support in polls, reflecting his rising prominence as a leading left-wing candidate. This surge influenced market prices, positioning him as a top contender.
Abelardo de la Espriella joins international right-wing network via Carta de Madrid
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 45%12%
De la Espriella formalized his adhesion to the Carta de Madrid, aligning with international right-wing leaders, which bolstered his campaign's legitimacy and caused a price increase.
Abelardo de la Espriella signs the “Carta de Madrid” with Vox’s Santiago Abascal
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 39%3%
De la Espriella signed the “Carta de Madrid” with Vox leader Santiago Abascal, linking his campaign to an international right‑wing network. The market price jumped from 36 % (Jan 9) to 39 % (Jan 15).
Abelardo de la Espriella Announces Vice-Presidential Candidate José Manuel Restrepo
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 47%1%
De La Espriella announced his vice-presidential running mate, economist José Manuel Restrepo, signaling a strong, credible running team for his campaign.
Poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella leading first-round voter intent
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%12%
A poll released in January 2026 indicated Abelardo de la Espriella leading voter intention with 28%, ahead of Iván Cepeda at 26.5%, signaling a shift in voter preferences and boosting De la Espriella's market price significantly.
Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws from presidential race
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) dips to 0%2%
Former minister Luis Gilberto Murillo announced he would not continue his candidacy, causing his market price to collapse to zero.
Poll shows De La Espriella would defeat Cepeda in presidential runoff
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%9%
An AtlasIntel poll indicated De La Espriella leading voter intent and beating Cepeda in a hypothetical runoff, signaling a shift in voter sentiment and strengthening De La Espriella's market position.
Presumed Attempt on Abelardo de la Espriella's Campaign Frustrated in Envigado
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 46%1%
A man with weapons and binoculars was caught trying to infiltrate the campaign event in Envigado, leading to security concerns and a campaign statement about the need for guarantees.
AtlasIntel poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda leading presidential race
A January 2026 AtlasIntel poll placed Abelardo de la Espriella at 28% and Iván Cepeda at 26.5%, confirming a competitive two-candidate race and boosting market confidence in both.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela policy
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 34%3%
President Petro's confrontational stance against U.S. policies and his defense of national sovereignty heightened political tensions, influencing voter sentiment and market perceptions of left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda Castro's prospects.
Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid after son's assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 44%6%
Following the death of his son Miguel Uribe Turbay, a slain presidential hopeful, Miguel Uribe Londoño launched his own campaign to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the market by introducing a new contender and shifting support within the conservative base.
Paloma Valencia surges after strong debate performance
Paloma Valencia surges to 31%26%
Paloma Valencia’s impressive showing in a televised debate boosted her visibility, leading to a sharp rise in her market price.
Paloma Valencia nominated as Democratic Center's presidential candidate
Paloma Valencia plunges to 7%15%
The Democratic Center party officially nominated Paloma Valencia as its candidate for the 2026 presidential elections, marking a consolidation of the right-wing vote and boosting her market position. This event was significant for right-wing voters and affected related candidates' market shares.
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in presidential race
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 34%18%
Following a period of low polling, Iván Cepeda Castro saw a significant increase in market support as his campaign gained traction.
Iván Cepeda Castro gains traction with policy proposals
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 34%14%
Iván Cepeda Castro's detailed policy proposals and increased media presence boosted his support, reflected in a rise from 20% to 34% in market prices.
Iván Cepeda’s poll surge puts him at 42 % support
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 43%25%
Cepeda’s campaign released a poll showing a 42 % lead, prompting a sudden rally in his odds and a jump in his market price from 18 % (Nov 28) to 43 % (Dec 7).
Abelardo De La Espriella delivers nearly 4.9 million signatures to officialize presidential candidacy
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 39%3%
Abelardo De La Espriella submitted 4,869,407 signatures to Colombia's Registraduría, marking a historic level of citizen support without traditional political machinery. This event significantly boosted his market price, reflecting increased confidence in his candidacy.
DEA designates Colombian President Gustavo Petro as 'priority target' in drug probe
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 13%7%
The U.S. DEA named President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' in investigations into alleged drug trafficking ties, causing political uncertainty and affecting the market's perception of candidates aligned with or against Petro, notably Iván Cepeda Castro.
Revelations about Abelardo de la Espriella's ties to controversial figures
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 36%5%
Reports surfaced linking Abelardo de la Espriella to Alex Saab and paramilitary groups, casting doubts on his candidacy and causing a decline in his market support.
Colombia authorizes euthanasia plan for invasive hippos linked to Pablo Escobar
The Colombian government approved a protocol to euthanize about 80 hippos descended from Pablo Escobar’s private zoo to control their population. The controversial environmental policy sparked local debate and reflected broader governance challenges, indirectly influencing public opinion on leadership and policy effectiveness.
Iván Cepeda leads presidential vote intentions ahead of 2026 elections
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 40%29%
The Invamer poll published on 30 Nov 2025 showed Cepeda leading with 31.9 % support. The market reacted strongly, lifting his price from the low‑teens to 40 % by early February 2026.
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading 2026 presidential race with 31.9% support
A poll conducted by Invamer for Noticias Caracol and Blu Radio revealed Iván Cepeda leading the presidential race with 31.9% support, ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella and Sergio Fajardo. The poll indicates a strengthening of the progressive movement and positions Cepeda as the frontrunner six months before the election.
Abelardo De La Espriella unveils hardline security proposal with extreme-isolation megaprisons
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 35%2%
De La Espriella proposed a tough-on-crime policy featuring mega-prisons with extreme isolation to combat organized crime, positioning himself as the strongest candidate on security issues. This bolstered his appeal among voters concerned about crime, contributing to his rise in the market.
DEA designates President Gustavo Petro as 'priority target' in drug probe
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 17%9%
The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration named Colombian President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' in investigations into alleged ties to drug traffickers. This development heightened political tensions and influenced market perceptions of candidates aligned with or opposed to Petro.
DEA labels President Gustavo Petro a priority target in drug probe
U.S. prosecutors identified President Petro as a priority target, raising concerns about the ruling party’s stability and indirectly lowering support for candidates associated with Petro’s coalition, while benefiting opposition figures like Iván Cepeda.
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum with key endorsements
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 23%9%
Iván Cepeda Castro's market price rose from 14% to 23% in mid-November 2025, boosted by endorsements from influential political figures and positive media coverage enhancing his campaign visibility.
Abelardo de la Espriella gains momentum with new campaign alliances
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%12%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price rose from 32% to 44% in early November 2025, coinciding with strategic campaign moves and endorsements, boosting his electoral prospects.
Iván Cepeda Castro gains poll momentum as left-wing candidate in Colombia
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 22%10%
Senator Iván Cepeda Castro, aligned with President Petro’s left-wing coalition, surged ahead in several polls, reflecting growing support for his platform. This shift impacted market prices, with Cepeda’s chances improving while others like Sergio Fajardo and Vicky Dávila declined.
Iván Cepeda wins Historic Pact primary, becoming left's presidential candidate
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 36%14%
Iván Cepeda secured a decisive victory in the Historic Pact primary with over 1 million votes, establishing himself as the leading left-wing candidate for the 2026 presidential election. This solidified his position in the market as the main contender from the left, driving his price upward.
Explosive attack kills 13 on bus in southwestern Colombia amid rising violence
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%6%
A deadly bombing on a bus in Cauca region killed 13 people and injured dozens, attributed to dissident armed groups linked to drug trafficking. The attack heightened security concerns and influenced voter preferences toward candidates promising tough measures against violence and crime.
Iván Cepeda wins Pacto Histórico consultation, becomes presidential candidate
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 65%15%
Iván Cepeda won the Pacto Histórico primary, becoming the official candidate of the left-wing coalition, which boosted his market price and positioned him as the main progressive contender.
Abelardo de la Espriella joins international right-wing alliance with Carta de Madrid
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 35%14%
Abelardo de la Espriella formalized his adhesion to the Carta de Madrid, aligning with international right-wing leaders, which enhanced his profile and market support among conservative voters.
Abelardo de la Espriella gains endorsement from conservative party
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 38%10%
The Conservative Party officially endorsed Abelardo de la Espriella, raising his profile among right‑leaning voters and prompting a price increase.
Assassination of presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay shocks election race
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
The killing of Miguel Uribe Turbay, a prominent candidate, introduced volatility and reshaped the right-wing field, affecting market prices for Abelardo de la Espriella and others.
Colombian officials report failure of FARC rebels to surrender assets as per peace deal
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 22%6%
The Colombian government revealed that former FARC rebels have not fully complied with the 2016 peace agreement, failing to surrender promised gold, land, and cash. This undermined peace efforts and raised security concerns, affecting voter sentiment and the standing of candidates promising stronger security measures.
Council of State admits tutela to revisit Juan Daniel Oviedo’s ineligibility case
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) rises to 1%1%
A citizen’s tutela seeking to reopen Oviedo’s ineligibility case was accepted by the Council of State. The uncertainty lifted his market price briefly from 0 % to 1 % on 23 Sep 2025 and stayed at 1 % through February 2026.
Council of State threatens to disqualify Juan Daniel Oviedo
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%2%
A court ruling threatened to invalidate Oviedo’s candidacy, driving his market price down from 2 % (Sep 22) to 0 % (Sep 30). The decision was later reversed, but the damage to his market perception remained.
Nicolás Maduro endorses Vicky Dávila for Colombia presidency, sparking controversy
Vicky Dávila (IND) drops to 19%9%
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro publicly declared support for Vicky Dávila's presidential candidacy, generating political debate and media attention in Colombia. This endorsement influenced perceptions of Dávila's campaign and market interest.
Vicky Dávila pushes “Plan Colombia 2.0” in Miami interview
Vicky Dávila (IND) drops to 1%11%
In a Miami‑Herald interview Dávila presented a hard‑line security agenda and called for a “Plan Colombia 2.0”. The story generated a wave of media attention that coincided with the first sharp decline of her market price from 12 % (Sept 11) to 1 % (Sept 22). Analysts linked the drop to the perception that her platform was too narrowly focused for a fragmented field.
Abelardo de la Espriella's support dips sharply after campaign missteps
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price dropped from 50% to 26% in early September 2025, likely due to negative media coverage and campaign errors that eroded voter confidence.
Abelardo de la Espriella faces campaign challenges, support dips
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Following initial enthusiasm, Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign encountered setbacks including criticism and strategic missteps, causing his market support to drop from 50% to 27%.
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading historic pact coalition
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 25%12%
A national poll released in early September placed Iván Cepeda at the forefront of the Historical Pact, boosting his perceived electability and driving his price upward.
Abelardo de la Espriella's price volatility amid campaign controversies
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 56%31%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price fluctuated significantly in early September, likely due to emerging controversies about his legal career and political positions, causing swings between 25% and 56%.
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 44%6%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, despite a fallout with the Democratic Center party. This event influenced the market by introducing a new conservative candidate, affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's and Iván Cepeda Castro's prospects.
Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid after son's assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Following the assassination of his son, presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, Miguel Uribe Londoño launched his own presidential campaign to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the market by introducing a new contender from the Democratic Colombia party and shifting support away from other candidates.
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 44%6%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the killed presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, running under Democratic Colombia after leaving the Democratic Center party. This event influenced market perceptions of Abelardo de la Espriella's and Iván Cepeda Castro's chances as new dynamics emerged.
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the killed presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy aiming to defend his son's political legacy, despite leaving the Democratic Center party. This event influenced market perceptions of Abelardo de la Espriella's and Iván Cepeda Castro's chances, as it introduced a new contender linked to a significant political event.
Abelardo de la Espriella's support drops sharply early in campaign
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market price fell from 50% to 27% by early September 2025, indicating early campaign volatility and challenges.
Initial polling shows Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro as frontrunners
Early polling data positioned Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro as the leading candidates, each starting with a 50% market probability, reflecting strong initial support and setting the stage for a competitive race.
Luis Gilberto Murillo's campaign falters amid low public support
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) plunges to 2%48%
Luis Gilberto Murillo's market price plummeted from 50% to near 2% in August 2025, reflecting poor campaign performance and lack of voter traction, leading to a collapse in his election chances.
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy after his son was killed during a campaign rally, impacting the market's perception of the race.
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 45%5%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, despite falling out with the Democratic Center party. This event increased attention on Uribe Londoño's campaign, impacting his market price.
Gustavo Bolívar reaches 12 % in national poll
Gustavo Bolívar (HC) jumps to 11%9%
A nationwide opinion poll placed Bolívar at 12 % support, the highest among the candidates at that moment, which briefly lifted his market price from 2 % (Aug 9) to 11 % (Aug 20). Subsequent polls showing a decline caused the price to fall back to 0 % by early September.
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 46%4%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the Democratic Center and the broader election dynamics.
Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid after son's death
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of slain presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the race by introducing a new contender with ties to the Democratic Center party. This announcement likely influenced Abelardo de la Espriella's early price movements as the conservative field adjusted.
Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign team targeted in attack in Arauca
An attack on Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign coordinator's vehicle in Arauca heightened concerns about political violence, rallying support and sympathy for his campaign.
Luis Gilberto Murillo's support collapses to near zero in early campaign phase
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) plunges to 2%48%
Luis Gilberto Murillo's market price dropped sharply from 50% to 2% by mid-August 2025, reflecting a rapid loss of viability as a presidential candidate early in the campaign period.
Claudia López's candidacy loses momentum, support falls sharply
Claudia López (IND) plunges to 11%39%
Claudia López's market price dropped from 50% to 11% by mid-August 2025, signaling a significant decline in her presidential campaign viability.
Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid after son’s assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 38%12%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the killed candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, launched his presidential campaign representing Democratic Colombia after leaving the Democratic Center party due to internal disputes. This event introduced a new contender and shifted dynamics among right-wing candidates, impacting Abelardo de la Espriella’s and others’ market positions.
Registraduría validates Luis Gilberto Murillo’s presidential candidacy
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) rises to 2%2%
The Registraduría officially certified Murillo’s candidacy after he met the 3 % signature threshold. The market temporarily rose from 0 % (Aug 1) to 2 % (Aug 9) before slumping back to 0 % as the novelty faded.
Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid honoring slain son
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his presidential candidacy, aiming to continue his son's political legacy. This announcement introduced a new dynamic in the race, affecting perceptions of candidates linked to the Democratic Center and shifting market prices.
Abelardo de la Espriella announces presidential candidacy with right-wing platform
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 56%6%
Abelardo de la Espriella officially launched his presidential campaign promoting conservative policies such as expanding gun rights and closing the Special Jurisdiction for Peace, which initially boosted his market support from 50% to near 56%.
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