Recent polling for the June 2 nonpartisan primary consistently places incumbent Karen Bass in the mid-20s among likely voters, with Nithya Raman and Spencer Pratt close behind at similar levels and more than a dozen other candidates splitting the remainder. High undecided shares and the absence of any contender near a majority have produced strong trader consensus against an outright first-round winner under the city charter rule requiring over 50 percent. The fragmented field aligns with historical patterns in Los Angeles mayoral contests, where runoffs have been the norm absent unusual consolidation. Late shifts in turnout or unexpected voter movement remain possible but face steep structural barriers given current vote distribution.