Following the December 2024 collapse of the Assad regime, Syria’s transitional government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has pursued direct and indirect talks with Israel, including U.S.-brokered meetings in Paris, focused on security arrangements, de-escalation along the border, and potential reactivation of the 1974 disengagement agreement. Israeli forces have maintained positions in the former buffer zone while conducting strikes to neutralize threats, with officials emphasizing that recognition of sovereignty over the Golan Heights remains non-negotiable. Syrian statements have signaled openness to non-aggression pacts and normalization under appropriate conditions, aligned with U.S. efforts to lift sanctions and promote regional stability, though sectarian tensions and differing demands on demilitarization continue to shape the pace of diplomacy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Iran claims it downed an Israeli surveillance drone; IDF says not familiar with incident
The incident heightened regional tensions and underscored the ongoing security challenges between Israel and its neighbors.
Analysts report Syria and Israel prefer security arrangements over diplomatic normalization
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%4%
By May 2026, analysts noted that both Syria and Israel favored new security arrangements rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting entrenched positions and public opposition in Syria. This assessment aligned with the market's very low probability for normalization by mid-2026.
Analyst: Syria and Lebanon prefer security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
Geopolitical analysis indicated that Syria and Lebanon favor limited security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting regional caution and contributing to low market expectations for normalization by mid-2026.
Analyst reports Syria prefers security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
A geopolitical analyst highlighted that Syria and Lebanon favor limited security agreements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting ongoing mistrust and strategic caution. This analysis contributed to market skepticism about near-term normalization.
Analysis: Syria and Lebanon prefer security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%2%
A geopolitical analysis highlighted that Syria and Lebanon are pursuing separate negotiation tracks with Israel, preferring limited security arrangements rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting persistent mistrust and regional complexities.
Analysis shows Syria and Lebanon prefer security arrangements over full normalization with Israel
A Stimson Center analysis highlighted that Syria and Lebanon are pursuing security arrangements with Israel rather than full diplomatic normalization, reflecting persistent mistrust and complicating prospects for formal relations within 2026.
Stimson Center report: Syria and Lebanon pursue separate negotiation tracks with Israel
A Stimson Center analysis noted that Lebanon and Syria are now pursuing separate diplomatic efforts with Israel, creating new opportunities for normalization.
Analysis shows Syria prefers security arrangements over full diplomatic normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
A geopolitical analysis highlighted that Syria and Lebanon pursue separate tracks with Israel, with Syria favoring limited security agreements rather than full normalization. This reinforced market skepticism about near-term normalization, contributing to price declines.
Syrian President al-Sharaa reiterates seriousness about security deal but notes Israeli brutality
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
Al-Sharaa emphasized Syria's seriousness about reaching a security agreement with Israel to maintain regional stability but criticized Israeli military actions as brutal. This mixed message reflected ongoing tensions and stalled progress, contributing to continued low market confidence in normalization by mid-2026.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris but make no concrete progress
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for a U.S.-mediated dialogue, agreeing only to set up a joint communication cell. The lack of substantive agreements dampened market expectations that formal diplomatic ties would be announced by year‑end, contributing to the price drop from 14% to 11% for the December‑2026 outcome and keeping the June‑2026 price low.
Syria's foreign minister calls for return to 1974 security agreement with Israel
Al-Shaibani reiterated Syria's preference for a comprehensive security agreement over full diplomatic normalization, reinforcing the ongoing diplomatic process.
Syrian foreign minister calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%2%
Syria's foreign minister emphasized the need for a comprehensive security agreement separate from normalization, demanding Israeli withdrawal from seized territories. This highlighted ongoing obstacles to normalization and contributed to market decline.
Syria's foreign minister calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel
Syria's foreign minister Asaad al-Shaibani emphasized the need for a comprehensive security agreement with Israel, indicating a shift toward diplomatic engagement.
Syria's foreign minister calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel
Syria's foreign minister emphasized the need for a comprehensive security agreement with Israel, reiterating that normalization and peace are separate processes, signaling continued diplomatic efforts despite no formal normalization.
U.S.‑mediated Israel‑Syria talks resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 jumps to 13%6%
The Associated Press reported that senior officials from Israel and Syria met in Paris under U.S. mediation to discuss a security agreement, briefly reviving hopes of a formal diplomatic accord and causing a short‑term price rebound.
Syria calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel, separates normalization
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Syria’s top diplomat emphasized that normalization of diplomatic relations and a peace framework are separate processes, expressing preference for a security agreement respecting Syria’s sovereignty. This nuanced stance maintained market caution about full normalization.
Syria Foreign Minister Al-Shaibani: Normalization separate from peace framework
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani reiterated that normalization and peace agreements are separate processes, emphasizing no military provocation.
US-mediated Israeli-Syrian talks resume in Paris aiming for security agreement
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Renewed U.S.-mediated talks in Paris sought to reactivate a 1974 disengagement agreement and Israeli withdrawal from buffer zones, but Israeli reluctance to withdraw limited progress, maintaining low market confidence.
Syria aims for stable relations with Israel, calls for new security agreement
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani emphasized the need for a comprehensive security agreement with Israel, separating normalization from security arrangements, signaling ongoing dialogue but no formal normalization yet.
EU-Syria cooperation agreement restored after 2011 crackdown
The EU announced it had restored its cooperation agreement with Syria, removing trade restrictions and signaling improved diplomatic relations.
Hezbollah refuses to abide by any agreements from Lebanon-Israel talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
Hezbollah publicly rejected any agreements resulting from Lebanon-Israel talks, maintaining its armed stance and complicating regional peace efforts. This hardened position contributed to skepticism about broader normalization efforts involving Israel and its neighbors, including Syria.
Hezbollah resists disarmament amid Lebanon-Israel talks
Hezbollah's refusal to disarm despite Lebanese government efforts and ongoing Israel-Lebanon talks highlights persistent regional instability. This resistance complicates broader peace efforts, including normalization between Israel and Syria, keeping market confidence low.
EU resumes 1978 cooperation agreement with Syria
The European Union announced it would fully resume its 1978 cooperation agreement with Syria, marking a significant diplomatic step that could facilitate broader normalization efforts.
Lebanon and Israel hold first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington
December 31, 2026 jumps to 16%9%
Lebanon and Israel held direct talks brokered by the U.S., marking a historic step in regional diplomacy. Although Hezbollah opposed the talks and no breakthrough was reached, the event influenced market perceptions about regional normalization prospects, indirectly affecting the Israel-Syria market.
Syria’s Foreign Minister calls for calm and stable relations with Israel
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%3%
Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani stated Syria’s desire for calm and stable relations with Israel but emphasized the need for a new security agreement. This underscored Syria’s cautious approach, separating normalization from security arrangements, which kept market confidence low.
Syria's Foreign Minister Al Shibani calls for comprehensive security agreement with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Syria's Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani emphasized the need for a calm and comprehensive security agreement respecting Syria's sovereignty, distinguishing it from normalization, indicating ongoing challenges and slowing prospects for formal diplomatic relations.
Syria's minister appears to take aim at Hezbollah for plotting attacks on Syrian territory
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Syrian minister Al Shibani addressed Hezbollah's activities from Lebanon, stating 'there are some armed militias working out of Lebanon outside the control of the authorities and this is worrying to us.' This security concern may have influenced market sentiment.
Syria’s Foreign Minister says Syria aims for stable relations but no results yet
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%3%
Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani stated in Brussels that Syria desires calm and stable relations with Israel but acknowledged no results have been reached yet. This tempered market expectations for imminent normalization, keeping prices low.
Market skepticism peaks as no official normalization announced by deadline
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
By May 2026, despite ongoing talks and mechanisms, no official announcement of diplomatic normalization was made by Israel or Syria, leading to a sharp decline in market prices reflecting low probability of near-term normalization.
Israeli cabinet discusses settlement‑related violence, no new diplomatic moves with Syria
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%7%
A cabinet meeting focused on settler violence in the West Bank diverted attention from the Israel‑Syria track, reinforcing scepticism about any near‑term normalisation and pushing the market to its lowest point in the window.
Syrian official states no progress on strategic files without Israeli withdrawal from seized territories
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%4%
A Syrian official declared that moving forward on strategic agreements with Israel is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from Syrian territory seized since late 2024, dampening hopes for normalization and causing market prices to fall to lows.
Normalization prospects hit low amid no official announcements
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%2%
By May 2026, no official announcements of diplomatic relations were made by Israel or Syria, and market prices for normalization reached historic lows reflecting diminished expectations.
Syrian trial of former Assad officials begins
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%4%
The high‑profile trial shifted domestic focus inward, further diminishing expectations of external diplomatic moves with Israel.
Syrian President al-Sharaa states normalization talks failed as Israel changed stance
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly stated that normalization talks with Israel failed due to Israel changing its mind at the last minute, reinforcing market pessimism about formal diplomatic relations.
Reports accuse Israel of sabotaging peace talks with intensified attacks in Syria and Lebanon
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Reports emerged accusing Israel of undermining peace talks by continuing military strikes in Syria and Lebanon, increasing tensions and reducing market confidence in normalization prospects by mid-2026.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 jumps to 13%6%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for a second round of U.S.-mediated negotiations, issuing a joint statement emphasizing respect for Syria's sovereignty and Israel's security, which modestly improved market expectations for a December 2026 diplomatic breakthrough.
EU leaders visit Syria, pledge support for reconstruction
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%3%
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa met Syrian interim President Ahmad al‑Sharaa, offering substantial aid and signaling a broader diplomatic opening that could pave the way for Israel‑Syria talks.
Israeli‑Syrian diplomatic talks stall after security flare‑up
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%3%
Following the Paris meeting, reports emerged that a renewed Hezbollah‑linked attack in Damascus led both sides to suspend further negotiations, sending the market sharply lower as the prospect of a formal agreement dimmed.
U.S.-mediated Syria-Israel talks resume in Paris aiming for security agreement
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%4%
Syria and Israel resumed U.S.-mediated talks in Paris to reactivate a 1974 disengagement agreement and discuss Israeli withdrawal from buffer zones. This diplomatic effort raised hopes for normalization but progress remained uncertain, causing market fluctuations in probabilities for normalization by mid-2026 and end of 2026.
Bombing at Homs mosque kills eight and wounds eighteen
December 31, 2026 drops to 8%5%
A terrorist attack on a mosque in Homs heightened security concerns and underscored ongoing instability in Syria, reducing confidence that diplomatic breakthroughs with Israel were imminent.
Market confidence drops amid stalled progress and unresolved core issues
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%5%
Despite diplomatic mechanisms in place, lack of official announcements and unresolved disputes over Israeli troop presence and full normalization led to market price declines reflecting skepticism about deal completion.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%3%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks, agreeing to set up a joint communication cell to manage security and explore diplomatic engagement, boosting expectations of normalization.
Syrian government deal with Kurdish fighters unravels amid new clashes and IS prisoner escapes
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
The breakdown of the ceasefire and renewed fighting between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters, along with Islamic State prisoner escapes, further destabilized Syria, diminishing prospects for Israel-Syria diplomatic normalization within 2026.
Israel turns away ship with stolen Ukrainian grain, easing diplomatic tensions
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Israel rejected the Panormitis ship carrying stolen Ukrainian grain, a diplomatic win for Kyiv that helped ease tensions. This event, while peripheral, reflected Israel's responsiveness to international pressure amid complex regional diplomacy.
Israel turns away ship with stolen Ukrainian grain amid diplomatic row
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Israel rejected a shipment of grain stolen from Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories, responding to Ukrainian diplomatic pressure. While unrelated directly to Israel-Syria relations, this event reflected Israel's complex regional diplomacy and its balancing act amid multiple conflicts, contributing to cautious market sentiment on normalization prospects.
Israel turns away ship with stolen Ukrainian grain in win for Kyiv
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%3%
Israel rejected a ship carrying grain stolen from Ukrainian territories, responding to diplomatic pressure from Ukraine. This event reflects Israel's complex regional diplomacy but does not directly affect Israel-Syria normalization prospects, maintaining market skepticism.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris on security agreement
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks aimed at a security agreement to reduce tensions. They agreed to establish a joint communication cell for coordination on intelligence, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement, marking a tentative step but no formal normalization yet.
Israel and Syria agree to establish joint communication cell during Paris talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%4%
During the resumed U.S.-brokered talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to create a joint communication cell to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement, marking a significant but preliminary step toward reducing hostilities without formal diplomatic normalization.
Israel rejects allegations over ship with stolen Ukrainian grain amid diplomatic row with Kyiv
Israel faced diplomatic tensions with Ukraine over ships carrying stolen Ukrainian grain docking at Israeli ports. This incident strained Israel's international relations and distracted from regional diplomatic efforts, including with Syria, contributing to market skepticism about normalization prospects.
Syrian Foreign Minister confirms stalled normalization efforts with Israel
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani acknowledged that efforts to normalize relations with Israel have stalled, reflecting persistent mistrust and military tensions, which kept market prices near lows.
Syria's new leadership supports disarming Hezbollah, aligning interests with Israel
December 31, 2026 rises to 18%4%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly supported disarming Hezbollah and interdicted weapons shipments, showing converging interests with Israel but without translating into normalization or cooperation.
Ukraine summons Israeli envoy over ship with stolen Ukrainian grain at Haifa port
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Ukraine summoned Israel's ambassador to protest the unloading of stolen Ukrainian grain at Haifa port, straining Israel's diplomatic relations and reflecting Israel's complex regional position. While not directly related to Israel-Syria normalization, this event contributed to regional diplomatic tensions and market caution.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar Rejects Ukrainian Grain Ship Allegations
Israel rejected Ukrainian accusations over a grain ship, which could have damaged bilateral relations. This incident occurred during a period of heightened diplomatic sensitivity.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa Hints at Israeli Normalization
Sharaa publicly hinted at normalization with Israel, indicating a potential shift in Syrian policy. However, this was not followed by concrete steps toward diplomatic relations.
Israeli and Syrian interests converge against Hezbollah but normalization efforts stall
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Despite shared interests in countering Hezbollah, deep mutual distrust and ongoing Israeli military actions in Syria prevented cooperation from translating into normalization, reinforcing market pessimism.
Israel and Syria share common fight against Hezbollah but normalization stalled
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly supported disarming Hezbollah, aligning interests with Israel. However, efforts to bridge relations and normalize ties stalled, reflecting ongoing mistrust and unresolved issues despite shared security concerns.
Ukraine warns Israel over ship with stolen grain, straining relations
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%2%
Ukraine summoned the Israeli ambassador to protest a ship carrying stolen Ukrainian grain docking in Haifa, causing diplomatic tension. While unrelated directly to Israel-Syria normalization, this event contributed to regional diplomatic complexities affecting market sentiment.
Syrian foreign minister hints at normalization during press conference
During a press briefing, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shibani reiterated that Syria seeks full sovereignty and hinted that normalization with Israel could be part of future negotiations, tempering the earlier decline and stabilising the market near the low point.
Syrian President publicly supports disarming Hezbollah, aligning interests with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa declared support for Lebanon's efforts to disarm Hezbollah, an adversary shared with Israel. This shift in Syria's stance represents a convergence of interests but has not yet translated into formal cooperation or normalization with Israel.
Analysis highlights stalled Israel-Syria rapprochement despite shared interests
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
A Foreign Policy article noted that despite converging interests against Hezbollah, efforts to bridge gaps between Israel and Syria have stalled, reflecting ongoing mistrust and lack of cooperation. This reinforced market skepticism about normalization prospects, contributing to low prices.
Israel and Syria’s Shared Fight Against Hezbollah Highlights Stalled Normalization
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa declared support for disarming Hezbollah, aligning interests with Israel against a common enemy. However, efforts to bridge gaps and normalize relations have stalled due to mutual distrust and ongoing military tensions, dampening market optimism.
Israeli FM rejects Ukraine’s allegations over stolen grain ship, straining relations
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%2%
Ukraine accused Israel of allowing ships carrying stolen Ukrainian grain to dock in Haifa, leading to diplomatic tensions. Israeli FM rejected the allegations publicly, reflecting complex regional relations but unrelated to Israel-Syria normalization.
Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa declares support for disarming Hezbollah
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly supported Lebanon's efforts to disarm Hezbollah, marking a shift from previous Syrian support for the group. This convergence of interests with Israel against Hezbollah suggested potential for cooperation but did not translate into normalization, reflecting ongoing tensions and stalled efforts.
U.S.-mediated Israel‑Syria talks resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%3%
AP reported that Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris to restart security talks, prompting a short rally in the market as traders priced in a possible path to formal relations.
Israeli Foreign Minister rejects Ukrainian allegations over stolen grain ship
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Tensions between Israel and Ukraine rose over allegations of stolen Ukrainian grain being unloaded in Israel. While unrelated directly to Israel-Syria relations, this incident reflects Israel's complex regional diplomatic challenges, contributing to a cautious market outlook on normalization prospects.
Ukraine warns Israel of diplomatic crisis over stolen grain ship at Haifa port
Ukraine summoned the Israeli ambassador to protest Israel allowing ships carrying stolen Ukrainian grain to dock, straining Israel's regional relations and reflecting Israel's complex regional position. This incident underscored Israel's diplomatic challenges, indirectly affecting perceptions of its willingness to normalize relations with neighbors like Syria.
EU leaders visit Syria and pledge €620 million aid
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa met Syrian interim President Ahmad al‑Sharaa, signaling Syria’s growing international acceptance and indirectly supporting a regional diplomatic thaw that nudged the December‑31 price slightly higher.
Joint Israel‑Syria communication cell established under U.S. supervision
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
The joint communication cell was presented as a concrete step toward de‑escalation, yet its limited scope reinforced expectations that full diplomatic ties were still distant, pushing both outcome prices down further.
Visiting EU leaders pledge to support Syria's recovery after years of civil war
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
EU leaders visited Syria and pledged financial support for reconstruction, signaling Syria's improving international relations post-civil war. This development suggested a more stable Syrian government potentially open to diplomatic normalization, slightly influencing market optimism.
Syrian foreign minister hints at possible Israel normalization
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
In a televised interview, Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani suggested that Damascus was open to talks with Israel, sparking brief market optimism that a diplomatic breakthrough might be forthcoming.
Syrian foreign minister says Israel‑Syria talks have stalled
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
A Syrian Foreign Ministry tweet on April 23 reported that talks had stalled, undercutting the optimism from the previous day and prompting a sharp drop in market confidence for both outcomes.
Syria’s interim president calls for ceasefire amid renewed clashes
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%4%
Following renewed fighting between Syrian forces and Kurdish fighters, President al‑Sharaa announced a ceasefire, underscoring internal security challenges and reducing the likelihood of a swift diplomatic opening with Israel, nudging the market lower.
Syrian foreign minister says Israel‑Syria talks have stalled
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%1%
The same stall announcement also pushed down the June 30 2026 outcome, which fell from 5 % to 4 % as traders reassessed the likelihood of an earlier normalization date.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%3%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focusing on security, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic engagement. The agreement to establish a joint communication cell indicated progress but fell short of official normalization, leading to modest market reactions.
Second round of U.S.-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks aims to extend cease-fire
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%4%
The U.S. hosted a second round of talks between Israel and Lebanon to extend a cease-fire amid ongoing conflict with Hezbollah. The talks showed continued U.S. diplomatic engagement in the region but no direct impact on Israel-Syria normalization.
U.S. mediates second round of Israel-Lebanon talks on Hezbollah cease-fire
The U.S. hosted a second round of talks between Israel and Lebanon aimed at extending a cease-fire and launching negotiations for peace. While not directly involving Syria, these talks influenced regional dynamics and underscored the complexity of achieving broader normalization including with Syria, as Hezbollah opposed agreements.
U.S.-mediated Israel‑Syria talks resume in Paris
The Associated Press reported that Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris to discuss a security agreement and the re‑activation of the 1974 disengagement buffer. The diplomatic breakthrough lifted market optimism, causing a short‑term rise in the Yes price for both outcomes.
Syrian foreign minister hints at possible normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
In a televised interview, Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani suggested that talks on normalising relations with Israel were under consideration, briefly lifting market odds before the optimism faded amid no concrete steps.
Second round of U.S.-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks held amid Hezbollah opposition
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%5%
The U.S. hosted a second round of talks between Israel and Lebanon aimed at extending a cease-fire with Hezbollah, which opposed the talks. Continued Israeli strikes and Hezbollah's resistance underscored regional instability, indirectly affecting Israel-Syria normalization prospects by highlighting broader security challenges.
U.S.-mediated Israel‑Syria talks resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
U.S. officials announced that Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris to discuss a security pact, raising expectations for a diplomatic breakthrough and temporarily stabilising prices before the news of a deadlock emerged.
Lebanon and Israel hold first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
Lebanon and Israel held direct talks brokered by the U.S., marking a historic step though Hezbollah opposed the talks. This development influenced regional dynamics but did not directly advance Israel-Syria normalization, contributing to market uncertainty.
Israel-Lebanon talks highlight challenges for regional peace amid ongoing conflict
Analysis of Israel-Lebanon talks emphasized the political and military challenges Israel faces, including its occupation of southern Lebanon and targeting beyond Hezbollah. This situation reflects the broader regional instability that hinders progress on Israel-Syria normalization.
Israel and Syria hold second round of U.S.-mediated talks in Paris with limited progress
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
In April 2026, Israel and Syria resumed talks in Paris focusing on security and intelligence coordination but without any official announcement of diplomatic normalization. The talks aimed to prevent misunderstandings but did not resolve core issues, keeping market prices low.
U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon talks begin amid ongoing regional conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
The U.S. facilitated direct talks between Israel and Lebanon to address ceasefire and security issues, highlighting ongoing regional instability that complicates Israel-Syria normalization prospects. Market prices continued to decline.
U.S. brokers first direct Israel-Lebanon talks in decades amid ceasefire
Following intense conflict involving Hezbollah, the U.S. facilitated the first direct diplomatic talks between Israel and Lebanon in decades, aiming to extend ceasefire and open negotiations. While not directly involving Syria, this regional diplomatic activity influenced perceptions of Middle East stability and normalization prospects.
Syrian interim president Al‑Sharaa meets Turkish foreign minister in Istanbul
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%5%
The meeting focused on border security and did not address diplomatic relations with Israel, reinforcing market sentiment that normalization was unlikely.
Clashes erupt between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters amid stalled merger talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Violent clashes in northern Syria between government forces and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces undermined stability and complicated diplomatic progress, reducing market confidence in near-term normalization between Israel and Syria.
Syria thwarts Hezbollah-linked sabotage plot in Quneitra province
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Syria announced it foiled a Hezbollah-linked sabotage plot near the Israeli border, highlighting ongoing security tensions that complicate normalization efforts and dampen market enthusiasm.
Syria thwarts Hezbollah sabotage plots near Israeli border
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Syrian authorities announced the disruption of Hezbollah-linked sabotage plots in Quneitra province and Damascus, signaling Syria's new stance against Hezbollah and aligning interests with Israel. This development suggested a potential opening for improved relations but did not translate into formal diplomatic progress, contributing to market uncertainty.
Syria says it foiled Hezbollah sabotage plot in Quneitra
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%4%
Syria’s Interior Ministry announced it had stopped a Hezbollah‑linked cell planning a rocket attack from a disguised civilian vehicle. The incident highlighted ongoing security tensions and reduced market optimism that Israel and Syria were moving toward diplomatic ties.
Syria's Interior Ministry announces thwarting of Hezbollah sabotage plot in Quneitra
December 31, 2026 drops to 4%7%
Syrian authorities reported thwarting a Hezbollah-orchestrated sabotage plot in Quneitra province, demonstrating ongoing security coordination and regional tensions. This military development may have contributed to market volatility.
Syria’s Interior Ministry reports thwarting Hezbollah sabotage plot in Quneitra
The Syrian interior ministry announced the disruption of a Hezbollah‑linked sabotage operation near the Israeli‑controlled Golan Heights. The security‑focused news reinforced the perception of ongoing hostility, pushing the Yes price lower for both outcomes.
US envoy praises Syrian regime's conciliatory approach, predicts normalization with Israel
June 30, 2026 rises to 7%1%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack praised Syria's new government for its conciliatory stance toward Israel and predicted that normalization and a non-aggression agreement would be reached sooner than with Lebanon. This statement briefly boosted market sentiment but did not lead to immediate progress.
U.S. envoy says normalization with Syria is "likely" and foresees a non‑aggression pact
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%3%
U.S. Special Envoy Tom Barrack, speaking at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, predicted that a non‑aggression and normalization agreement with Syria would be reached soon. The forward‑looking comment nudged the market upward for the December‑2026 outcome, contributing to the climb from 11 % to 14 % between 2026‑05‑20 and 2026‑05‑29.
US envoy Tom Barrack: Syria normalization 'sooner than Lebanon' at Antalya forum
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%7%
US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack predicted normalization with Syria would occur sooner than with Lebanon, though he acknowledged talks were paused due to regional instability.
US envoy predicts Israel-Syria normalization soon amid praise for Syrian conciliatory approach
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
US Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack praised Syria's conciliatory approach and predicted normalization with Israel soon, providing a temporary boost to market optimism despite ongoing challenges.
US envoy Tom Barrack predicts Syria-Israel normalization soon
December 31, 2026 rises to 17%3%
US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack praised the Syrian government's conciliatory approach and predicted that Syria and Israel would soon agree to normalize relations, providing some market optimism despite ongoing tensions.
Syria's President Al-Sharaa attends Antalya Diplomacy Forum
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa participated in a major diplomacy forum in Turkey, indicating continued efforts to engage with international actors and potentially Israel.
US envoy predicts eventual normalization between Israel and Syria
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack expressed optimism that Israel and Syria would soon reach a non-aggression and normalization agreement, despite current setbacks. This statement briefly boosted market expectations for normalization by suggesting diplomatic progress was still possible.
US envoy Tom Barrack highlights selective mediation in Syria-Israel talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
US Special Envoy Tom Barrack explained that US mediation in Syria-Israel negotiations is selective and conditional, with significant obstacles including Israeli military presence in Syria. His remarks underscored the complexity and slow progress of talks, contributing to market uncertainty.
US envoy Tom Barrack praises Syrian regime's conciliatory approach, predicts normalization soon
June 30, 2026 rises to 9%3%
US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack publicly praised Syria's conciliatory stance and predicted that Israel and Syria would soon agree to normalize relations, temporarily boosting market confidence in a near-term deal.
Israel approves $334 million plan to expand civilian settlements in occupied Golan Heights
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
Israel's government approved a significant plan to transfer thousands of civilians into the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, signaling continued occupation and undermining prospects for normalization, which negatively impacted market confidence.
Lebanon and Israel agree to 10-day cease-fire amid conflict with Hezbollah
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
A cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon began on April 16, brokered by the U.S., creating a moment of regional diplomatic activity. While this primarily involved Lebanon and Hezbollah, it influenced regional dynamics affecting Israel-Syria relations and normalization prospects.
Syrian President al-Sharaa says Israel refused normalization at last minute
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Al-Sharaa claimed that Syria reached good points in talks but Israel changed its mind at the last minute, indicating stalled negotiations and no formal diplomatic relations established.
U.S. brokers first direct diplomatic talks between Israel and Lebanon
December 31, 2026 drops to 19%9%
The United States facilitated the first direct diplomatic talks in decades between Israel and Lebanon, a neighboring country involved in regional conflicts. While this was a significant diplomatic step, it did not involve Syria and did not result in normalization between Israel and Syria, contributing to market skepticism.
Israel and Lebanon hold second round of U.S.-mediated talks on ceasefire extension
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
The U.S. hosted a second round of talks between Israel and Lebanon to extend the ceasefire, with ongoing Israeli strikes and Hezbollah attacks continuing. This sustained regional instability contributed to market skepticism about Israel-Syria normalization in the near term.
Israel and Lebanon hold second round of U.S.-mediated talks to extend ceasefire
The U.S. hosted a second round of ambassador-level talks between Israel and Lebanon to extend a ceasefire and discuss broader peace negotiations. Hezbollah opposed the talks, underscoring ongoing regional tensions that complicate broader normalization efforts including with Syria.
Israel clears final hurdle for controversial West Bank settlement project
June 30, 2026 drops to 2%6%
The Israeli government approved the tender for the E1 settlement project near Jerusalem, a move seen as contrary to peace‑building and likely to sour any normalization talks with Syria, causing the June‑30 outcome price to plunge.
U.S. proposes joint Israel-Syria economic cooperation zone
December 31, 2026 drops to 4%8%
The Trump administration proposed an economic cooperation plan including a joint economic zone and infrastructure projects, signaling broader diplomatic engagement beyond security.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks on a security agreement, agreeing to set up a joint communication cell. The breakthrough raised hopes of formal diplomatic ties, pushing the market up modestly.
Israel approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%5%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a historic gas deal with Egypt, improving Israel’s regional economic ties and shifting diplomatic focus toward energy cooperation rather than a peace pact with Syria, contributing to further price declines.
Syria reopens airspace amid ongoing regional hostilities
Syria reopened its airspace, signaling some normalization of state functions despite ongoing Israeli military activity in southern Syria, which continues to pose challenges to stability.
Syria reopens airspace amid regional tensions
December 31, 2026 rises to 17%1%
Syria reopened its airspace after closure due to regional hostilities, while Israel continued military activities in southern Syria citing national security, underscoring ongoing tensions that hinder normalization prospects.
Israel and Lebanon begin first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington
Lebanon and Israel held their first direct talks in decades, mediated by the U.S., aiming to address ceasefire and peace issues amid ongoing conflict with Hezbollah. This development highlighted regional diplomatic efforts but did not directly advance Israel-Syria normalization, reflecting the complex regional environment.
U.S. brokers ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, indirectly affecting regional dynamics
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%4%
The U.S. brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which while not directly involving Syria, influenced regional security calculations and Israel's military focus, indirectly impacting Israel-Syria relations and market sentiment on normalization prospects.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 rises to 17%1%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks aimed at a security agreement to reduce tensions, agreeing to establish a joint communication cell for coordination. However, Syria prioritized Israeli withdrawal to pre-December 2024 lines, while Israel emphasized security and protection of its citizens and the Druze minority. This indicated progress in dialogue but no formal diplomatic normalization.
Israel clears final hurdle for controversial West Bank settlement project near Jerusalem
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
The Israeli government approved a tender for the E1 settlement project, reviving a long‑frozen plan and raising concerns that settlement expansion would hinder any diplomatic breakthrough with Syria, causing the market to fall.
U.S‑mediated Israel‑Syria security talks resume in Paris
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
The announcement that Syrian and Israeli delegations would meet in Paris under U.S. mediation revived hopes of a security pact, but analysts viewed the talks as focused on buffer‑zone issues rather than full diplomatic recognition, prompting a modest price drop.
Syrian and Israeli officials resume U.S.-mediated talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%5%
Officials from Syria and Israel met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks aiming to reach a security agreement to defuse tensions. They agreed to establish a joint communication cell for coordination, but no formal normalization was announced, reflecting cautious progress.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focused on a security agreement to defuse tensions, agreeing to establish a joint communication cell for coordination under U.S. supervision. This marked a significant step toward potential normalization but fell short of official diplomatic relations.
Syrian President al-Sharaa states normalization with Israel is off the table
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%5%
In late March 2026, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly declared that normalization with Israel was not currently on the agenda, citing unresolved territorial and political issues. This statement reinforced market skepticism and contributed to further price declines.
Ongoing Israeli airstrikes and incursions in southern Syria continue
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%7%
Despite talks, Israel continued airstrikes on Syrian military facilities and incursions outside buffer zones, maintaining tensions and undermining prospects for normalization. This contributed to market declines in the probability of normalization by the end of 2026.
Syrian President Al-Sharaa says Israel refused normalization at last minute
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa revealed during a UK visit that Syria's attempts to normalize relations with Israel were unsuccessful because Israel changed its mind at the last moment. This announcement dampened market optimism about normalization by highlighting unresolved Israeli reluctance.
Syria's President Al-Sharaa says Israel changed its mind at last minute
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that despite reaching good points, Israel withdrew from diplomatic talks at the last minute, signaling a setback for normalization efforts.
Syrian President Al-Sharaa: Israel normalization attempts 'without success' at UK visit
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated during a UK visit that his government's efforts to normalize with Israel failed due to Israel changing its position at the last minute.
Syrian President al-Sharaa states talks with Israel progressing with difficulty
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%4%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa acknowledged that negotiations with Israel were progressing with great difficulty, citing Israeli insistence on maintaining military presence on Syrian soil as a major obstacle. This dampened market expectations for normalization by the mid-2026 deadline.
Al-Sharaa says normalization with Israel failed after last-minute Israeli change
June 30, 2026 drops to 4%10%
During a UK visit, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that his government's attempt to normalize relations with Israel failed due to Israel changing its mind at the last minute.
Israel intensifies military operations against Iran, impacting regional dynamics
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
Israel's ongoing military campaign against Iran and its proxies, including in Syria, heightened regional tensions and distrust, further complicating normalization efforts with Syria and depressing market confidence.
Syria’s president says Israel backed out of normalization talks at the last minute
June 30, 2026 dips to 7%2%
During a visit to London, Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa told reporters that Syria had tried to normalize relations with Israel but that Israel “changed its mind at the last minute.” The admission that talks had collapsed caused the market’s Yes odds to fall sharply, driving the June‑2026 price from 9 % to 7 % in the days that followed.
Syrian President al-Sharaa says Israel refused normalization at last minute
June 30, 2026 drops to 3%5%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated during a UK visit that Syria attempted to normalize relations with Israel but failed as Israel changed its mind at the last minute. This announcement dampened market expectations for normalization by mid-2026.
No official Israel-Syria normalization announcement as talks remain inconclusive
By late March 2026, no official announcement of diplomatic relations establishment occurred despite ongoing talks and U.S. mediation, leading to market prices dropping to historic lows for both June and December 2026 outcomes.
Israel and Syria Resume U.S.-Brokered Talks in Paris on Security Agreement
The resumption of U.S.-mediated talks in Paris focused on a security agreement, including a joint communication cell for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation. This represented a significant diplomatic step but did not result in normalized relations.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focusing on security and diplomatic coordination, including establishing a joint communication cell. This was a significant diplomatic engagement but did not result in official normalization of relations, leading to some market optimism but no resolution.
U.S.-mediated Israel‑Syria talks resume in Paris, both sides set modest goals
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
AP reported that Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris to discuss a security agreement, but the limited agenda and lack of concrete timelines kept market expectations low, maintaining the downward trend.
Israeli Foreign Minister states war goal to remove Iran threats, signaling ongoing regional conflict
December 31, 2026 drops to 15%8%
In March 2026, Israeli officials emphasized ongoing military objectives against Iran and its proxies, including in Syria, indicating continued instability and undermining prospects for normalization with Syria. This contributed to low market confidence in normalization by mid-2026.
U.S. encourages Syria to consider sending forces into eastern Lebanon to help disarm Hezbollah
December 31, 2026 dips to 15%3%
Reuters reported that the U.S. pushed Syria to send forces into eastern Lebanon to help disarm Hezbollah, reflecting shifting regional dynamics and increased Israeli military activity in southern Syria.
EU leaders visit Syria, pledge €620 million aid
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa met interim President Ahmad al‑Sharaa in Damascus, announcing a major aid package. The visit highlighted Syria’s growing openness to the West, shifting attention away from Israel‑Syria normalization and pulling the market down.
Israel and Syria agree to establish joint communication cell in Paris talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 24%11%
In a significant diplomatic development, Israel and Syria agreed to create a joint communication cell for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, signaling progress but falling short of full normalization, causing a modest market uptick.
Israeli forces seize Hamas ally in southern Lebanon amid ongoing tensions
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Israeli military operations in Lebanon targeting Hamas allies and Hezbollah continued, reflecting ongoing regional instability and security concerns that reduce likelihood of Israel-Syria normalization by mid-2026.
Israel and Syria’s shared fight against Hezbollah highlights tentative cooperation
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly supported disarming Hezbollah, a common adversary of Israel and Syria, indicating some convergence of interests. However, efforts to bridge gaps stalled, maintaining skepticism about full normalization.
Escalation between Hezbollah and Israel amid U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran
December 31, 2026 rises to 24%3%
Hezbollah fired at Israel supporting Tehran, prompting Israeli strikes in Lebanon, increasing regional tensions. The U.S. encouraged Syria to disarm Hezbollah, but Damascus hesitated, reflecting Syria's cautious stance and complicating normalization prospects.
US, Israel, Syria issue joint statement on productive talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%4%
A trilateral statement reaffirmed commitment to dialogue and cooperation but did not announce formal diplomatic relations, reflecting ongoing negotiations without resolution and contributing to market pessimism.
Syrian Foreign Minister reports stalled efforts to normalize with Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%10%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani stated that efforts to bridge gaps with Israel have stalled, reflecting deep mistrust and ongoing military tensions, which contributed to the market's sharp decline in normalization probability.
Syrian president publicly supports Lebanon’s Hezbollah disarmament, signals shift away from Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 16%5%
Al Arabiya covered President al‑Sharaa’s declaration backing Lebanon’s effort to disarm Hezbollah, a move seen as aligning Syria with Israel’s security goals but not translating into diplomatic progress, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa declares support for disarming Hezbollah alongside Lebanon and Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%6%
Syria's new leadership publicly supported Lebanon's efforts to disarm Hezbollah, an adversary shared with Israel, signaling a potential convergence of interests. However, this did not translate into direct cooperation or normalization, reflecting ongoing mistrust and stalled progress in relations.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa declares support for Lebanon's Hezbollah disarmament
June 30, 2026 plunges to 6%44%
Sharaa publicly supported Lebanon's effort to disarm Hezbollah, a shared interest with Israel. This positive development was noted but did not lead to normalization.
Renewed optimism as US-backed talks continue with focus on economic cooperation
December 31, 2026 jumps to 26%6%
US mediation helped sustain talks focusing on economic ties and regional stability, briefly boosting market confidence despite unresolved core issues.
Syrian government announces ceasefire with Kurdish forces in Aleppo
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%3%
A brief ceasefire was declared, offering a fleeting hope that could explain a short‑term price uptick, but the lack of a lasting agreement quickly reversed the market move.
Continued diplomatic dialogue with no breakthrough on normalization
December 31, 2026 jumps to 22%6%
Israel and Syria continued talks focusing on security and economic cooperation, but Syria's refusal to establish full diplomatic relations without Israeli withdrawal kept market confidence low.
Israel continues military operations in Syria amid distrust of new Syrian leadership
December 31, 2026 jumps to 24%10%
Israel maintained military strikes and control in southern Syria, reflecting ongoing distrust of Syria’s interim government and complicating normalization prospects. This sustained tension contributed to market declines in early 2026.
Market briefly rebounds on reports of ongoing US-mediated talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 25%14%
Market prices for normalization temporarily increased due to reports of continued US-brokered discussions and hopes for progress, though no concrete breakthroughs were announced.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris, agree to joint communication cell
December 31, 2026 jumps to 23%9%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris and issued a joint statement establishing a communication cell to coordinate intelligence, de‑escalation and commercial opportunities, signalling a concrete step toward normalisation and pushing the market higher.
No breakthrough in Israel-Syria relations as core issues remain unresolved
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%4%
Despite ongoing US-mediated talks and the joint communication mechanism, Syria demands Israeli troop withdrawal from territories seized after December 2024, and full diplomatic relations remain off the table, leading to market price declines.
Lebanon and Israel hold first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington
December 31, 2026 jumps to 23%7%
Lebanon and Israel held direct talks brokered by the U.S. following conflict with Hezbollah, signaling a regional shift toward dialogue but not normalization with Syria. This event reflected broader regional diplomatic efforts but did not directly advance Israel-Syria normalization, contributing to market uncertainty.
Syrian defense ministry announces ceasefire in Aleppo amid stalled Israel talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 20%6%
Syria’s defense ministry declared a ceasefire in Aleppo, a modest confidence‑building step, but without any parallel progress on Israel‑Syria normalisation, the market saw a modest rebound in price for the December‑2026 outcome.
U.S. and Israel begin war against Iran, Syria sees new regional dynamics
Israel launched airstrikes on Iran-backed militias in Syria following U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran, prompting Syria to reassess its regional position.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris to ease tensions
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%5%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focusing on respect for Syria's sovereignty and Israel's security, agreeing to establish a joint communication cell for coordination. This raised hopes for normalization but did not include official diplomatic relations, leading to some market optimism but no resolution.
Syria’s interim president announces ceasefire with Kurdish forces in Aleppo
The ceasefire announcement was intended to stabilize northern Syria but did not involve Israel, leaving the broader Israel‑Syria normalization question unchanged and contributing to continued price weakness.
Syrian Foreign Minister signals possible security negotiations with Israel
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%3%
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani indicated that negotiations with Israel focused on security arrangements excluding the Golan Heights, suggesting a pragmatic approach to normalization. This raised market hopes for progress toward normalization by the end of 2026.
Syrian FM more outspoken about Israel than in past year
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani increased public statements on Israel, indicating Syria's shift toward pragmatism and reduced emphasis on Golan Heights disputes.
Syria admits security deal with Israel won't secure Golan Heights liberation
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%8%
Syrian Foreign Minister Al-Shaibani acknowledged talks with Israel focus on ending military interference, signaling a pragmatic shift toward normalization despite unresolved Golan Heights dispute.
U.S. debate over guaranteeing Israel’s qualitative military edge intensifies
A War on the Rocks analysis highlighted growing U.S. skepticism about continued military aid to Israel, suggesting a shift that could reduce Israel’s leverage in regional diplomatic talks, including with Syria, further lowering market confidence.
Clashes erupt in Aleppo after SDF‑government tensions
December 31, 2026 drops to 13%6%
Violent confrontations in Aleppo between Syrian forces and SDF fighters highlighted ongoing instability, further eroding confidence in any near‑term Israel‑Syria diplomatic breakthrough.
Market hits lowest confidence in normalization amid ongoing military strikes and political resistance
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%10%
By mid-February 2026, market prices for normalization reached lows (11% for December 31, 2026), reflecting persistent Israeli military actions in Syria, Syrian political resistance, and lack of progress in talks, signaling diminished chances of normalization soon.
Syrian president’s overtures to Israel face renewed criticism
December 31, 2026 dips to 4%4%
Foreign Policy reported on Feb 14 2026 that Sharaa’s earlier hints at normalization were met with criticism from regional actors, reinforcing the view that a deal was unlikely and pushing prices lower.
U.S. defense analysts argue Israel’s military edge reduces incentive for diplomatic deals
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
War on the Rocks argued that Israel’s qualitative military edge, bolstered by U.S. aid, lessens its need for a Syrian peace deal, prompting the market to slide to its lowest point in February.
Market dips amid reports of Israeli military activity in southern Syria
December 31, 2026 drops to 13%8%
Continued Israeli military operations in southern Syria raised tensions and cast doubt on the prospects for normalization, contributing to a market price trough.
Hezbollah‑Israel border clashes raise security concerns, dampening normalization hopes
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%4%
Following renewed Hezbollah rocket fire and Israeli retaliation reported on Feb 13 2026, regional security tensions rose, reducing confidence in any near‑term Israel‑Syria diplomatic breakthrough and driving both market prices to their lowest points.
Syria insists on Israeli withdrawal before strategic progress possible
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%12%
A Syrian official stated that moving forward on strategic files with Israel is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal, reinforcing barriers to normalization and pushing market prices lower.
Market confidence dips amid ongoing Israeli military actions and Syrian reluctance
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%11%
Continued Israeli military operations in Syria and Syria's refusal to engage in full normalization led to a sharp drop in market prices, reflecting diminished expectations for a deal by mid-2026.
US‑Saudi talks fail to produce Israel normalization roadmap
June 30, 2026 drops to 5%6%
War on the Rocks noted on Feb 13 2026 that a high‑level US‑Saudi meeting produced no concrete steps toward Israel‑Saudi or Israel‑Syria normalization, deepening market doubts.
Israel’s far‑right government expands settlement policy
December 31, 2026 dips to 15%4%
Further settlement expansion announcements by Israel’s far‑right coalition signaled a continued focus on territorial issues rather than diplomatic outreach to Syria, pushing prices lower.
Clashes between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters continue amid stalled talks
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Renewed clashes and failure to merge Kurdish forces with Syrian army further diminished prospects for normalization, causing market prices for both June 30 and December 31, 2026 outcomes to fall to historic lows.
EU leaders pledge support for Syria’s recovery post-civil war
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%11%
European Union officials visited Syria and pledged financial aid for reconstruction, signaling Syria’s improving relations with the West but not directly with Israel. This nuanced development did not significantly boost market expectations for Israel-Syria normalization by the end of 2026.
Syrian Foreign Minister reports stalled Israeli-Syrian rapprochement efforts
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani stated that efforts to bridge gaps with Israel have stalled, reflecting deep mistrust and ongoing military tensions. This news further reduced market confidence in normalization by mid-2026 and end-2026.
U.S.‑brokered Israel‑Syria talks in Paris fail to produce agreement
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%10%
AP reported on Feb 11 2026 that Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under U.S. mediation but left without a concrete security accord, reinforcing market pessimism and coinciding with the steep price decline from 21 % to 11 % for the December‑31 outcome.
Analysis questions effectiveness of U.S. military aid in fostering Israeli peace concessions
December 31, 2026 drops to 10%11%
A critical analysis highlighted that despite Israel's military edge and U.S. support, there is no Israeli intent to make concessions, reducing the likelihood of normalization with Syria or other neighbors in the near term.
Hezbollah official states group will not abide by Lebanon-Israel talks agreements
December 31, 2026 drops to 13%8%
Hezbollah's rejection of any agreements from Lebanon-Israel talks signaled continued regional hostility and instability, indirectly affecting Syria-Israel normalization prospects and contributing to market pessimism.
U.S. military aid to Israel escalates but no Israeli concessions on Syria normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%5%
U.S. military support to Israel increased, reinforcing Israel's military edge. However, Israel showed no intent to make political concessions in Syria, continuing military operations and occupation, which reduced market confidence in normalization prospects.
Analysis questions effectiveness of Israel's military edge for peace
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
Experts noted that despite Israel's military dominance, there was no corresponding political progress toward peace or normalization with neighbors including Syria, reflecting entrenched positions and reducing market optimism.
Syrian official states no progress without Israeli troop withdrawal timeline
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%4%
In early February 2026, Syrian officials emphasized that strategic progress with Israel requires a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from Syrian territory. This hardened stance reduced market confidence in full normalization by mid-2026.
U.S. and Iran agree to hold nuclear talks in Oman amid regional tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
The U.S. and Iran agreed to resume talks in Oman, reflecting ongoing regional diplomatic activity that indirectly affects Israel-Syria relations by influencing broader Middle East dynamics, but no direct progress on normalization was reported.
U.S. analysis questions effectiveness of Israel’s military edge for peace
June 30, 2026 drops to 13%6%
A critical analysis emerged questioning whether Israel’s military superiority fosters peace, highlighting Israel’s territorial expansions and lack of concessions, which dampened market optimism for normalization with Syria by mid-2026.
Limited travel through Rafah crossing resumes under EU supervision
June 30, 2026 dips to 10%2%
The partial reopening of the Rafah crossing indicated some humanitarian easing but did not translate into diplomatic normalization between Israel and Syria, maintaining low market confidence in normalization by mid-2026.
Trump administration promotes Syria-Israel peace initiative
June 30, 2026 plunges to 6%44%
Trump emphasized the importance of Israel maintaining a strong dialogue with Syria, but Netanyahu remained cautious about territorial concessions. Market price remained low.
Israel and UAE deepen cooperation supporting Druze factions in Syria amid Saudi opposition
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%7%
Israel’s cooperation with the UAE to support Druze groups in Syria, opposed by Saudi Arabia, exacerbated regional divisions and complicated prospects for Israeli-Syrian normalization, contributing to market decline.
Israel and UAE cooperate to support Druze groups in Syria
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
Israel and UAE reportedly cooperating to support Druze groups in Syria, increasing regional tensions and complicating any potential normalization with Syria.
Syrian President Sharaa consolidates control, undermines Kurdish autonomy
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
President Ahmed al-Sharaa's efforts to unify Syria and suppress Kurdish autonomy reduced fragmentation risks but maintained tensions with Israel, limiting normalization prospects and keeping market prices low.
Reports indicate Israel and Syria to finalize US-brokered security deal soon
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%6%
Sources close to Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa indicated that Israeli and Syrian officials were expected to finalize a security agreement under US mediation, with discussions on potential joint economic projects. However, full diplomatic normalization remained uncertain, contributing to market price declines.
Syrian source says Israel-Syria to finalize US-brokered security deal soon
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%2%
A Syrian source indicated that Israeli and Syrian officials are expected to finalize a security agreement under US mediation, with potential for joint strategic and economic projects, but formal diplomatic relations remain uncertain.
Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev meets U.S. delegates in Davos amid peace talks
Russian negotiator Dmitriev met with U.S. envoys including Jared Kushner to discuss peace plans, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts involving regional conflicts but with no direct breakthrough on Israel-Syria normalization, maintaining market uncertainty.
Syrian foreign minister says normalization talks have stalled
June 30, 2026 drops to 9%7%
A tweet from Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shaibani on Jan 17 2026 reported that efforts to bridge the gap with Israel had stalled, reinforcing market pessimism and prompting a further price drop.
Israeli military intensifies operations in Gaza amid ongoing conflict
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%13%
Israel's focus on military operations and settlement expansion signaled a hardening stance, reducing optimism for diplomatic breakthroughs with Syria. This contributed to a further decline in market prices for normalization by December 31, 2026.
Reports of stalled progress as Syria demands Israeli troop withdrawal before normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%6%
Syrian officials insisted on Israeli withdrawal to pre-December 2024 borders before any final agreement, while Israel maintained demands for security guarantees, causing market skepticism and price declines.
EU leaders visit Syria, pledge reconstruction aid but note security concerns
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%6%
AP reported a visit by EU officials to Damascus, offering billions in aid while stressing that ongoing clashes and lack of a clear diplomatic path with Israel keep normalization prospects low, contributing to another price decline.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu approves major natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Netanyahu’s approval of a $35 billion natural gas deal with Egypt strengthened regional economic ties but did not directly advance Israel-Syria normalization, contributing to stable but low market confidence in normalization by end of 2026.
Syrian‑Kurdish talks in Damascus end without tangible results
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%8%
A high‑level meeting between Syrian officials and SDF commander Mazloum Abdi produced no concrete agreement, reinforcing market pessimism about any diplomatic progress with Israel.
Israel reiterates commitment to regional stability and economic cooperation with Syria
Israel's Prime Minister's office emphasized ongoing dialogue to promote security, protect minorities, and advance economic cooperation, indicating continued talks without breakthrough on normalization.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 plunges to 6%44%
Joint statement confirmed establishment of a joint communication cell for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, but no agreement on normalization was reached. Market price remained low.
Trilateral meeting between US, Israel, and Syria shows promise in diplomatic engagement
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
A trilateral meeting under US leadership reaffirmed commitments to lasting security and stability, establishing a joint fusion mechanism for coordination, indicating positive diplomatic momentum but no formal normalization yet.
Expert analysis highlights potential breakthrough in Israel-Syria relations
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%10%
On January 9, 2026, analysis from Texas A&M University noted the recent Israel-Syria agreement as a potential breakthrough toward normalization, citing prior de-escalation agreements. Despite this, ongoing hostilities and unresolved issues tempered market enthusiasm.
Texas A&M analysis says Israel‑Syria talks could lead to breakthrough
An analysis piece highlighted the significance of the communication cell and suggested it could pave the way for full diplomatic ties. The expert commentary added credibility to the process, keeping the market flat around 11 % for the December‑2026 outcome.
Netanyahu reportedly cuts tactical deal with Iran amid regional tensions
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%6%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly reached a tactical non-aggression deal with Iran, easing some regional tensions but not directly advancing Israel-Syria normalization. Market impact was limited but contributed to cautious sentiment.
Expert analysis highlights promise of US-brokered Israel-Syria communication cell
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%1%
A Texas A&M professor noted the joint communication cell as a major success story potentially paving the way for positive diplomatic engagement, though internal Syrian hostilities pose risks.
Experts highlight potential for positive diplomatic engagement after US-brokered Israel-Syria meeting
December 31, 2026 drops to 15%5%
Analysis from experts noted the establishment of the joint coordination mechanism as a major success and a potential foundation for future diplomatic progress, though normalization remained uncertain.
Experts say public announcement of talks marks first official acknowledgment
June 30, 2026 dips to 19%2%
Texas A&M analyst Emma Lawson quoted Barrack describing the Paris talks as a “breakthrough” and noted that the public acknowledgment of the talks was the first time they were disclosed. The commentary reinforced market doubts that the talks would lead to full diplomatic relations, keeping the “Yes” probability low at 19 % for the June‑30 outcome.
Expert analysis highlights promise and challenges in Israel-Syria-US trilateral talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%5%
A Texas A&M professor noted the historic nature of the US-brokered talks and the establishment of a communication cell, but warned that recent hostilities in Syria could threaten progress, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
State Department publishes joint statement on Israel‑Syria trilateral meeting
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
The US State Department released the official joint statement confirming the fusion mechanism and reiterating both sides’ commitment to “lasting security and stability”. The formal documentation further weakened market optimism, pushing the price down to 11 % for the December‑2026 outcome.
Joint US-Israel-Syria statement affirms commitment to security and stability arrangements
A trilateral joint statement was released confirming the establishment of a dedicated communication cell and a commitment to security and stability, reflecting progress in talks but no formal normalization announcement.
Israel reiterates commitment to regional stability and economic cooperation with Syria
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
Israel's Prime Minister's office emphasized ongoing dialogue to promote security and economic cooperation, including protecting the Druze minority, indicating sustained but cautious engagement without full normalization.
US-backed Israel-Syria talks focus on border security and economic cooperation
June 30, 2026 dips to 14%2%
US mediation continued with talks emphasizing border security and economic ties, but no breakthrough on full diplomatic normalization was reported, contributing to continued market decline.
Analysis highlights promise and challenges in Israel-Syria diplomatic engagement
December 31, 2026 drops to 13%6%
Experts noted the establishment of the communication cell as a breakthrough in relations, but also warned that hostilities and internal opposition in Syria could threaten progress toward normalization, contributing to market skepticism.
Everything you need to know about the Syria‑Israel deal in Paris
A background article summarised the deal, reinforcing market perception that the talks were moving forward but still far from a formal peace treaty, leaving the probability unchanged.
EU leaders pledge support for Syria's recovery post-civil war
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%6%
European Union officials visited Syria and pledged financial aid for reconstruction, indicating Syria's improving international relations but highlighting ongoing internal challenges that complicate normalization with Israel.
Detailed overview of Israel-Syria deal highlights security and economic cooperation
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
Reports detailed the joint mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, emphasizing US influence and Israel's interest in countering Turkish influence, but no full diplomatic normalization yet.
US-backed Israel-Syria deal aims to boost Syrian economy and regional stability
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
A US-mediated deal proposed economic cooperation and security arrangements between Israel and Syria, but full diplomatic normalization remained uncertain, leading to continued market decline.
Analysis highlights Syrian public opposition to normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%5%
Polling showed only 14% of Syrians support normalization, indicating strong domestic resistance that complicates official diplomatic recognition and contributed to market price declines.
U.S., Israel, Syria announce resumption of diplomatic dialogue in Paris
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%16%
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under U.S. mediation, marking a major diplomatic breakthrough after months of silence and renewed security coordination discussions.
Israel, Syria, US launch dedicated communication cell to coordinate intelligence and de‑escalation
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%10%
A joint statement from the US, Israel and Syria reported the creation of a dedicated communication line – the “fusion mechanism”. The announcement marked the first concrete institutional framework, lifting the “December 31 2026” probability from 22 % to 12 % the following day.
Israel and Syria agree on joint intelligence sharing and military de-escalation mechanism
December 31, 2026 jumps to 20%6%
Israel and Syria, under US supervision, agreed to a dedicated communication cell to coordinate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement, signaling a positive but limited step toward normalization.
Syrian official states no progress without Israeli withdrawal from seized territories
December 31, 2026 drops to 11%10%
A Syrian official declared that strategic progress with Israel is impossible without a clear timeline for Israeli troop withdrawal from Syrian territory seized since late 2024, highlighting a key obstacle to normalization and pressuring market sentiment downward.
Joint US-Israel-Syria statement affirms commitment to security and stability
December 31, 2026 jumps to 26%5%
The US, Israel, and Syria released a joint statement confirming the establishment of a joint fusion mechanism to facilitate coordination on intelligence, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement, reflecting a diplomatic breakthrough but not full normalization.
Israel and Syria agree to set up joint communication mechanism in US-mediated talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%3%
During US-mediated talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities. This was seen as a step toward reducing tensions but fell short of full normalization.
Israel and Syria agree to dedicated communication line in US-brokered talks
Israel and Syria agreed to set up a joint mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation under US supervision, aiming to prevent misunderstandings and facilitate diplomatic engagement, but key strategic issues remained unresolved.
US State Department publishes joint statement on Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%8%
The US State Department released a joint statement on January 6, 2026, confirming the establishment of a "joint fusion mechanism" between Israel and Syria. This official acknowledgment reinforced the partial normalization but highlighted the absence of full diplomatic relations, contributing to market decline.
US State Department confirms joint mechanism for Israel-Syria coordination
December 31, 2026 jumps to 27%7%
The US Department of State announced the dedicated communication cell to facilitate ongoing coordination on intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities.
Israel, Syria agree to joint communication mechanism under U.S. supervision
Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation under U.S. oversight, reflecting progress in dialogue but not full normalization, causing minor price fluctuations.
Israel, Syria agree to dedicated communication cell under US supervision
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%4%
Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint mechanism for sharing intelligence and coordinating military de-escalation under United States supervision, which will also facilitate diplomatic engagement and commercial opportunities. This agreement was a significant step toward normalization.
Joint U.S.-Israel-Syria statement affirms commitment to lasting security arrangements
December 31, 2026 drops to 19%7%
The U.S. State Department released a joint statement confirming Israel and Syria's commitment to lasting security and stability arrangements and the establishment of a dedicated communication cell, reflecting progress but no formal diplomatic relations yet.
U.S. releases joint statement on Israel‑Syria communication cell
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%21%
The official U.S. press release on Jan 6 announced the establishment of the joint communication cell, widely reported as a “breakthrough”. The market reacted with a sharp decline (‑21 points) from 32 % on Dec 10 to 11 % on Jan 5, reflecting skepticism that the step amounted to full normalization.
Israel and Syria reaffirm commitment to security and establish joint communication cell
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
Under US auspices, Israel and Syria publicly confirmed a joint mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, maintaining diplomatic dialogue but without progress toward full normalization, leading to modest market gains.
Israel, Syria, and US announce joint communication cell for coordination
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
A trilateral statement confirmed establishment of a joint fusion mechanism to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities under US supervision, maintaining cautious optimism.
US State Department releases joint statement on Israel-Syria trilateral meeting
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%4%
The US Department of State released the official joint statement confirming the establishment of the joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing and military coordination under US supervision. This formalized the Paris agreement.
US State Department issues joint statement on Israel-Syria talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%7%
The US, Israel, and Syria released a joint statement affirming their commitment to lasting security and stability arrangements and the establishment of a joint fusion mechanism. This official endorsement reinforced the diplomatic progress but did not confirm normalization.
Israel and Syria formalize joint communication mechanism in US-brokered talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%6%
The US Department of State and involved parties announced the formalization of the joint fusion mechanism to manage intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, signaling continued cooperation but no full diplomatic normalization.
Delcy Rodríguez sworn in as Venezuela’s interim president
While unrelated directly to Israel-Syria relations, this event reflects regional political shifts and complexities in Middle Eastern and allied countries' diplomacy, indirectly influencing geopolitical calculations.
US-mediated Syria-Israel talks held in Paris on security arrangements
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%5%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for US-mediated talks to discuss security arrangements, signaling some diplomatic engagement but no breakthrough on normalization. The talks provided a modest positive signal but did not reverse the downward market trend.
US-mediated Syria-Israel talks resume after months of silence
June 30, 2026 dips to 21%1%
Diplomatic talks resumed in Paris under US mediation focusing on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement and Israeli troop withdrawal demands, signaling renewed but cautious progress.
EU leaders visit Syria, pledge support and lift sanctions
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
AP reported on Jan 5 2026 that EU officials met interim President Ahmad al‑Sharaa, announced €620 million aid and lifted sanctions, signalling improved ties with the West but no direct Israel‑Syria breakthrough, which kept market sentiment low.
EU delegation highlights Syria’s reconstruction, not Israel ties
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%10%
During the EU visit, officials focused on reconstruction aid and a ceasefire with Kurdish forces, offering no progress on Israel‑Syria diplomatic normalization, reinforcing market pessimism.
Syrian government and Kurdish-led force deal unravels amid new clashes
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%5%
The breakdown of a ceasefire deal between the Syrian government and Kurdish forces, with ensuing violence and IS prisoner escapes, further destabilized Syria, diminishing hopes for normalization with Israel and pushing market prices lower.
Syria and Israel resume US-mediated security talks in Paris
On January 5, 2026, Syria and Israel resumed US-mediated talks focusing on reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement and addressing Israeli troop presence. This renewed dialogue was a positive step but did not yet indicate formal normalization, causing moderate market optimism.
Israel clears final hurdle for E1 West Bank settlement project
December 31, 2026 jumps to 28%6%
Israel’s approval of the contentious E1 settlement tender heightened regional tensions and signaled a focus on settlement expansion rather than diplomatic outreach to Syria, pulling prices down further.
Analysis warns of grim outlook for Middle East peace including stalled Israel-Syria normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
Despite earlier optimism, regional politics and recalcitrance of players like Israel and Syria have collided with peace efforts. Israel continues military actions in Syria and occupies territory, while Syria faces internal challenges. This reality dampened market optimism further, pushing prices down.
Optimism fades as regional realities stall Israel-Syria progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%6%
Despite earlier hopes, Israeli military actions in Syria and ongoing distrust, especially regarding Syria's new leadership and Israeli security concerns, have stalled normalization prospects, leading to further market price declines.
U.S.-brokered Israeli-Syrian security talks show promise but face challenges
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%6%
Washington brokered senior-level talks between Israel and Syria about a security accord, offering a historic opportunity for easing tensions. However, Israeli strategic interests and Syria's internal challenges limited progress toward normalization, contributing to market decline.
Israeli military actions and regional tensions keep normalization prospects low
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%14%
Despite a new Syrian regime and some diplomatic overtures, Israel's ongoing military strikes in Syria and Lebanon, and its policies in Gaza and the West Bank, sustained deep mistrust and diminished hopes for normalization with Syria by mid-2026.
Middle East outlook grim as Israeli-Syrian talks stall
June 30, 2026 drops to 13%9%
Despite initial promise of a U.S.-brokered Israeli-Syrian security accord, Israeli concerns over security and territorial control stalled progress, reducing market confidence in normalization by mid-2026.
U.S.-mediated Israeli-Syrian talks resume in Paris
June 30, 2026 plunges to 6%44%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-brokered talks aimed at a security agreement, signaling renewed diplomatic efforts. However, no normalization was achieved, and the market price dropped sharply.
Middle East looks toward grim 2026 outlook
June 30, 2026 rises to 15%1%
Foreign Policy article warned that promising regional developments have collided with recalcitrant Middle Eastern players, creating a pessimistic outlook for normalization.
Syrian and Israeli officials resume U.S.-mediated talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%9%
Officials from Syria and Israel met in Paris to discuss reactivating the 1974 disengagement agreement and Israeli withdrawal from the buffer zone, aiming to reduce tensions but without progress toward full normalization.
Israeli settlement construction tender clears final hurdle near Jerusalem
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%14%
Israel cleared the final administrative step to begin construction on the contentious E1 settlement project near Jerusalem, further straining regional relations and diminishing hopes for normalization with Syria by year-end 2026.
U.S.‑Saudi reconfiguration article notes no concrete steps toward Israel‑Syria normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 24%11%
War on the Rocks analysis on Dec 30 2025 highlighted that Saudi and broader Arab leaders see no tangible timeline or confidence‑building measures for Israel‑Syria diplomatic ties, underscoring regional skepticism and contributing to the market’s decline in late December.
Hezbollah replaces top security official amid internal restructuring
Hezbollah’s leadership change signalled ongoing instability on Israel’s northern frontier, reinforcing concerns that security tensions would dominate the agenda and further dampen normalization hopes, pushing prices lower.
Syria hints at conditional liaison office in Damascus
June 30, 2026 rises to 13%1%
Reports emerged that a Syrian source indicated willingness to open a limited liaison office in Damascus contingent on progress in talks. The optimism was short‑lived; the market dipped again to 13 % on Feb 23, suggesting the news failed to alter expectations of full normalization.
Saudi Arabia uses military force in Yemen amid UAE tensions
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%8%
Saudi Arabia's military action in Yemen against UAE-backed forces underscored regional rivalries and complicated Gulf cooperation, indirectly affecting Israel-Syria normalization prospects by highlighting broader regional instability.
US President Trump hosts Netanyahu, urges renewal of Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%5%
President Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, urging the restart of stalled talks with Syria as part of his Middle East peace vision, temporarily boosting market optimism.
Trump meets Netanyahu, urges renewal of Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 jumps to 37%6%
US President Donald Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, urging the renewal of stalled talks with Syria as part of his Middle East peace vision, boosting market hopes for progress.
Trump meets Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss Middle East peace
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%4%
On December 29, 2025, President Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, reinforcing US efforts to broker peace and normalization with Syria. This meeting briefly boosted market confidence in normalization prospects.
Trump hosts Netanyahu and Syrian President al‑Sharaa to launch new US‑backed Israel‑Syria peace effort
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%6%
US President Donald Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa at Mar‑a‑Lago and announced a renewed US‑backed peace push, stating that the three sides would resume direct talks. The high‑profile meeting lifted market expectations of a formal diplomatic breakthrough, pushing the “December 31 2026” probability up from 35 % to 29 % the next day.
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic talks under US mediation
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
On December 29, 2025, Israel and Syria resumed diplomatic talks with US backing, focusing on border security and regional stability. This renewed dialogue raised market optimism about potential progress toward normalization.
US President Trump hosts Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu amid Syria talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
President Trump met with Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, emphasizing US support for Israel-Syria dialogue and peace efforts. Despite this high-level backing, Israeli demands and Syrian reservations kept normalization prospects uncertain, reflected in market price volatility.
US President Donald Trump meets Israeli PM Netanyahu, expressing hope for Syria deal
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%2%
Trump's meeting with Netanyahu reinforced US support for Middle East peace efforts including potential normalization between Israel and Syria, temporarily boosting market confidence.
US, Israel, Syria announce joint statement on security and economic cooperation
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
The three countries released a joint statement affirming commitment to security arrangements and economic cooperation, including a $4 billion GDP growth proposal for Syria, but no formal diplomatic relations were announced.
Trump meets Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago on Syria peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%4%
President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, reinforcing US support for Israel-Syria peace efforts. Trump's statement that Israel must maintain a strong dialogue with Syria provided momentum for the peace process.
Trump hosts Netanyahu, urges restart of Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 26%4%
US President Trump met Israeli PM Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, urging renewed negotiations with Syria as part of his Middle East peace vision, boosting market hopes temporarily.
Trump, Netanyahu meet at Mar-a-Lago; US, Israel, Syria announce renewed diplomatic push
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%6%
President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, and the US, Israel, and Syria announced that senior Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under US auspices, marking a renewed diplomatic push with plans for closer security coordination and potential economic engagement.
State Department says Israel‑Syria mechanism excludes troop‑withdrawal issue
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%9%
A follow‑up press release emphasized that the mechanism would not address “strategic files” until Israeli troops withdrew, dampening hopes and pulling the price down to 20 % for the December‑2026 outcome.
Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa meets EU leaders pledging support for Syria’s recovery
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%10%
The EU pledged financial aid to Syria and recognized the new leadership under al-Sharaa, signaling improved Western relations. However, internal Syrian challenges and ongoing regional tensions limited immediate normalization prospects with Israel.
EU leaders visit Syria, pledge support for recovery post-civil war
December 31, 2026 rises to 27%1%
European Union officials met with Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, signaling Syria's improving relations with the West but no direct progress on Israel normalization. This event reflected Syria's fragile state and complex regional relations, dampening market optimism.
Syrian president hints at possible Israel normalization in interview
June 30, 2026 jumps to 38%5%
Al Arabiya quoted President Ahmed al‑Sharaa suggesting that Syria might consider diplomatic ties with Israel, sparking a brief rally that lifted the June‑30 outcome by 5 points before the effect faded.
Syria's new leadership supports Lebanon's effort to disarm Hezbollah
June 30, 2026 drops to 20%5%
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly supported disarming Hezbollah, signaling a shift in Syria's stance and potential for regional cooperation, but Israeli distrust and ongoing military actions kept normalization uncertain, causing market fluctuations.
EU leaders visit Syria, pledge aid but no diplomatic breakthrough on Israel ties
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa met Syrian interim president Ahmad al‑Sharaa, offering reconstruction aid but the visit did not produce any concrete steps toward Israel‑Syria diplomatic relations, reinforcing market pessimism.
Israel recognizes Somaliland amid regional tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%3%
Israel's recognition of Somaliland highlighted shifting regional alliances and distracted from progress on Israel-Syria normalization, contributing to market declines in normalization prospects.
Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa meets EU leaders signaling improved Western ties
December 31, 2026 rises to 36%4%
The EU delegation's visit and financial support pledge to Syria under al-Sharaa indicated Syria's diplomatic opening to the West but did not translate into progress on normalization with Israel, maintaining market skepticism.
EU leaders visit Syria and pledge financial support
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%10%
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa visited Syria, announcing €620 million in aid and signaling improved Western ties, but no mention of diplomatic relations with Israel, leaving normalization prospects unchanged.
Talks progress on Syria-Israel security agreement, possible signing soon
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%3%
Reports indicated significant progress in talks over a security agreement between Syria and Israel, with a diplomatic annex possibly to be signed soon, raising market optimism for a deal by mid-2026.
Syrian government casts Israeli military actions as attempt to fracture state
December 31, 2026 rises to 28%2%
Damascus criticized Israeli strikes and support for Druze factions as efforts to undermine Syrian unity, heightening regional tensions and complicating normalization prospects.
Israel and Syria agree to continue dialogue focusing on Druze minority security
December 31, 2026 rises to 27%1%
Following US-mediated talks, Israel and Syria agreed to maintain dialogue emphasizing security for the Druze minority, reflecting cautious progress but no formal normalization, leading to modest market stabilization.
Surge in Israeli settler violence in West Bank amid settlement expansion
December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%10%
Israeli settler violence surged in the West Bank following settlement expansions, increasing regional instability and reducing chances of diplomatic normalization with Syria. This contributed to further market price declines.
Israel approves 19 new West Bank settlements including Yatziv
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
Israel's government approved new settlements in the West Bank, including Yatziv, escalating tensions with Palestinians and undermining prospects for peace and normalization with Syria. This contributed to a market price drop reflecting reduced chances of normalization by June 30, 2026.
Israeli cabinet approves 20 new West Bank settlements
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%8%
The Israeli government approved a batch of new settlements, underscoring a hard‑line stance that reduced optimism for any peace overture toward Syria, contributing to a price drop for both outcomes.
Israeli government approves 19 new West Bank settlements including Yatziv
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%8%
The Israeli government approved multiple new settlements in the West Bank, including Yatziv, escalating tensions with Palestinians and undermining prospects for peace and normalization with Syria. This dampened market expectations for normalization by December 31, 2026.
EU leaders pledge support for Syria’s recovery after civil war
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%13%
European Union officials visited Syria and pledged financial support for reconstruction, indicating Syria’s improving international relations but not directly impacting Israel-Syria normalization prospects, leading to minor market fluctuations.
Paris talks reaffirm communication cell but leave troop‑withdrawal dead‑locked
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%9%
The joint statement from the Paris talks was repeated by U.S. officials, emphasizing that the “dedicated communication cell” would not address strategic files such as Israeli troop withdrawal. The lack of progress on core issues caused the market’s “Yes” odds to fall sharply to 21 % by Dec 30.
Israel clears final hurdle for controversial West Bank settlement project
Israel approved the tender for the E1 settlement project near Jerusalem, underscoring its settlement expansion agenda and diminishing prospects for a regional diplomatic thaw, which contributed to a further price drop.
U.S. sanctions threaten Syria's recovery under new leadership
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
U.S. sanctions aimed at the previous Assad regime continued to impact Syria's recovery under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, complicating prospects for normalization with Israel and regional stability.
EU leaders pledge €620 million support to Syria’s reconstruction
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%4%
While the EU’s financial pledge improved Syria’s economic outlook, it underscored Syria’s focus on internal rebuilding rather than regional diplomatic breakthroughs, contributing to a modest price rise then reversal.
Calls to repeal U.S. Caesar sanctions on Syria to aid recovery and diplomacy
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%9%
U.S. lawmakers urged repeal of sanctions to support Syria's reconstruction and political alignment with U.S. interests, potentially facilitating normalization talks. However, no immediate breakthrough occurred, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
Netanyahu places Ambassador Leiter at head of Israel‑Syria negotiating team
December 31, 2026 dips to 35%3%
Israel’s Prime Minister announced a reshuffle of its negotiating team, placing Ambassador Yechiel Leiter in charge of talks. Analysts interpreted the move as a sign of Israel’s willingness to compromise, nudging the market down from 38 % to 35 % for the December‑2026 outcome.
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic dialogue under US mediation in Paris
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%
Senior officials from Israel and Syria met in Paris under US auspices to renew diplomatic talks, agreeing to establish a joint communication mechanism for intelligence sharing and military de-escalation, signaling progress but not full normalization.
Renewed Israel-Syria talks in Paris stall over humanitarian corridor and diplomatic recognition
December 31, 2026 drops to 29%10%
During the fifth round of US-brokered talks in Paris, Israel's demand for a humanitarian corridor in Sweida and full diplomatic relations was rejected by Syria, causing progress to stall and dampening market expectations for near-term normalization.
Israel demands full diplomatic relations; Syria rejects, complicating talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 34%7%
Reports indicated Israel shifted to demanding full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected as not currently feasible, causing stalled progress and market price declines.
Israel and Syria resume talks in Paris amid stalled progress
June 30, 2026 drops to 20%12%
A fifth round of talks began in Paris after a pause, with Israel demanding humanitarian corridors and full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected, causing stalled progress and market price declines.
Renewed Israel-Syria talks resume in Paris under US mediation after months of silence
December 31, 2026 rises to 24%4%
Following a period of stalled negotiations, Israel and Syria resumed talks in Paris with US backing, focusing on border security and regional stability, which briefly raised hopes for progress in normalization.
Israeli leadership reshuffles team amid stalled Syria talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 28%6%
With negotiations stalling, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu appointed new officials to lead talks, signaling intent to push forward but also reflecting challenges in reaching agreement, causing market fluctuations.
Trump meets Netanyahu, pledges push for Israel‑Syria peace
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%3%
During a meeting at Mar‑a‑Lake, Trump publicly affirmed his support for a Syrian‑Israeli peace track and urged Netanyahu to resume talks. The announcement sparked a brief rally in the market (price rising to 32 % on Dec 3) before subsequent setbacks reversed the gain.
Renewed Israel-Syria talks in Paris face stalled progress over humanitarian corridor and diplomatic demands
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%13%
A fifth round of talks began in Paris but progress stalled due to Israel's demand for a humanitarian corridor in Sweida and later full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected. This caused market prices to drop significantly reflecting increased doubts about near-term normalization.
Fifth round of Israel-Syria talks begins in Paris after stalled progress
December 31, 2026 dips to 30%3%
Negotiations resumed in Paris with new Israeli team leadership, aiming to revive stalled security arrangement talks, but fundamental disagreements persisted.
Israel appoints new team to lead Syria talks amid stalled progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%5%
With negotiations stalling over humanitarian corridor and diplomatic recognition demands, Israel replaced its lead negotiator, signaling a recalibration of its approach and causing market fluctuations.
Clashes erupt between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters in Aleppo
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%8%
Violent clashes between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters in northern Syria undermined stability and complicated Syria's internal situation, reducing prospects for normalization with Israel and causing market prices to fall.
EU delegation visits Syria, signals renewed Western engagement
December 31, 2026 drops to 23%8%
AP reported on Dec 14 2025 that EU leaders met Syrian interim president, offering financial aid and political support, which briefly lifted hopes for broader diplomatic openings before the market corrected.
Syrian government and Kurdish-led forces discuss military merger with no tangible results
June 30, 2026 drops to 11%5%
Talks in Damascus between Syrian government and Kurdish-led forces over military merger failed to produce tangible results, signaling ongoing divisions and reducing prospects for normalization by mid-2026.
Recall of July 2025 Israeli strike fuels skepticism on talks
December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%21%
An Israeli airstrike on the Syrian Defence Ministry headquarters in July 2025 was referenced in multiple reports on Dec 12, reminding traders that military clashes remained possible despite diplomatic talks, contributing to a sudden 21‑point drop from 32 % to 11 % on Dec 13.
Syrian president hints at possible Israel talks but acknowledges obstacles
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%7%
Foreign Policy reported on Dec 11 2025 that Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa publicly hinted at normalization while noting internal and regional challenges, tempering expectations and contributing to a price dip.
US-backed Israel-Syria talks resume focusing on border security and regional stability
December 31, 2026 dips to 32%4%
Diplomatic dialogue between Israel and Syria resumed with US backing, emphasizing border security and potential economic engagement, reflecting ongoing efforts to stabilize relations despite unresolved core issues.
US President Trump urges Israel to maintain dialogue with Syria
December 31, 2026 dips to 33%4%
President Trump emphasized the importance of strong dialogue between Israel and Syria, supporting ongoing diplomatic efforts and signaling US commitment to peace in the region.
Israel and Syria agree on mechanism to facilitate de-escalation and economic ties
December 31, 2026 plunges to 18%24%
During talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to create a mechanism to facilitate de-escalation, diplomacy, and commercial opportunities, signaling progress but falling short of full normalization, causing mixed market reactions.
Israel demands full diplomatic relations, complicating Syria talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%7%
Reports indicated Israel shifted its demands to require full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected, stalling progress and tempering initial optimism about normalization prospects.
Fifth round of Israel-Syria talks in Paris after stalled progress
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%1%
After a pause, Israel and Syria resumed talks in Paris focusing on security arrangements, but progress remained limited due to unresolved issues like humanitarian corridors and diplomatic recognition, leading to market price declines.
Israel expands buffer zone in Syria despite US mediation efforts
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
Israel's military actions to expand a buffer zone in southern Syria, contrary to US diplomatic efforts, increased tensions and reduced market confidence in normalization prospects.
Trump reminds both sides of US commitment after talks stall
December 31, 2026 drops to 22%12%
After a brief setback, Trump reiterated US commitment, causing a sharp drop in the market from 34 % to 22 % as traders interpreted the statement as acknowledging stalled progress.
Israel and Syria agree to continue dialogue and establish joint communication cell under US supervision
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%10%
A joint statement confirmed the establishment of a dedicated communication cell to facilitate ongoing coordination on intelligence, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement, reflecting progress but not full normalization.
EU leaders visit Syria and pledge €620 million aid
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council President António Costa met interim President Ahmad al‑Sharaa, signalling a thaw in Syria’s relations with the West and briefly boosting optimism for regional rapprochement, which caused a short‑term price rise.
Poll shows only 14% of Syrians support normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 25%6%
A nationwide poll revealed very low Syrian public support for normalization with Israel, reflecting deep societal opposition and complicating the political feasibility of formal diplomatic relations. This contributed to declining market confidence in normalization by both target dates.
Syrian government forces enter northern towns after Kurdish withdrawal
December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
Syrian troops moved into Maskana and Deir Hafer as Kurdish forces withdrew, signaling a consolidation of state control and reducing hopes for a diplomatic opening with Israel.
Saudi analysts say normalization with Israel remains politically untenable
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%9%
A War on the Rocks analysis on Dec 5 2025 highlighted Saudi Arabia’s view that any Israel‑Saudi deal is blocked by settlement expansion and public outrage, signaling no imminent regional breakthrough and pulling down market optimism.
Israel expands buffer zone in Syria despite US opposition
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%8%
Israel expanded its buffer zone in southern Syria, defying US efforts to promote normalization and causing market doubts about the deal's viability. This military action undermined trust and reduced prices for normalization outcomes.
Israel and Syria meet in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%10%
Israeli and Syrian officials held a meeting in Paris, issuing a joint statement that emphasized a communication cell but stopped short of any concrete diplomatic breakthrough, reinforcing market doubts about a formal normalization before year‑end.
Syrian President al-Sharaa declares support for Lebanon's Hezbollah disarmament
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%6%
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa publicly declared support for Lebanon's effort to disarm Hezbollah, a significant diplomatic gesture that could facilitate regional cooperation.
Trump administration highlights stalled Middle East peace opportunities including Israel-Syria talks
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%7%
A Foreign Policy article detailed how diplomatic efforts to capitalize on openings in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran had stalled, with Israel wary of losing freedom of action in Syria and cautious about a security agreement. This dampened market optimism for normalization by mid-2026.
Trump administration highlights missed opportunities for Middle East peace including Israel-Syria normalization
December 31, 2026 drops to 37%7%
A senior Israeli defense official noted that diplomatic efforts have stalled, with all fronts in the Middle East still open. Despite openings created by recent conflicts, Israel remains wary of losing freedom of action in Syria, dampening prospects for normalization and causing market prices to fall.
Israel, Syria, U.S. agree to set up joint communication cell in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 35%8%
A joint statement released by the United States, Israel and Syria announced the creation of a U.S.–supervised “joint fusion mechanism” (communication cell). The news was interpreted as a step toward de‑escalation rather than full diplomatic recognition, prompting a further decline in the market to 35 % Yes.
Trump's peace initiative stalls amid regional complexities
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%7%
Despite initial optimism, diplomatic efforts including Trump's peace plan failed to translate military successes into political normalization, with Israel maintaining hardline policies and regional tensions persisting, leading to market declines.
Israel and Syria abandon joint communication cell in Paris talks
December 31, 2026 plunges to 21%15%
Israeli and Syrian delegations met in Paris but left without agreeing to establish the joint communication cell intended to coordinate intelligence and de‑escalation, signaling a setback in normalization efforts and prompting a sharp price drop for both outcomes.
Trump administration's peace plan raises hopes but progress stalls
June 30, 2026 drops to 24%9%
Despite initial optimism from the Gaza ceasefire and regional shifts, diplomatic efforts including with Syria have stalled due to Israeli reluctance to concede territory and ongoing military actions, dampening market confidence in normalization by June 30, 2026.
Trump administration highlights stalled Middle East peace efforts including Israel-Syria talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 26%10%
In early December 2025, reports indicated that despite openings, diplomatic efforts including Israel-Syria talks were stuck due to Israeli wariness and ongoing military actions. This reinforced market skepticism about normalization prospects, contributing to further price declines.
U.S. President Trump pushes Israeli-Syrian security agreement amid stalled progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%
Despite initial optimism, Israeli reluctance to lose freedom of action in Syria and ongoing military operations led to stalled progress. Trump urged Netanyahu to maintain dialogue with Syria, but Israel insisted on security guarantees, dampening normalization prospects.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%11%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks aiming to broker a security agreement focused on sovereignty, stability, and security. They agreed to establish a joint communication cell for coordination under U.S. supervision. This raised hopes for normalization but did not resolve core issues, leading to a moderate price decline for normalization by June 30, 2026.
Trump administration highlights missed Middle East peace opportunities including Syria
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
A senior Israeli defense official noted that diplomatic opportunities in Syria and other regional fronts were being squandered due to mishandling and delays by the U.S., Israel, and Arab states. This underscored the stalled progress in Israel-Syria relations and contributed to market pessimism about normalization.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu says Syria deal possible with buffer zone
December 31, 2026 dips to 38%1%
Netanyahu expressed optimism about a possible deal with Syria contingent on establishing a demilitarized buffer zone, signaling a potential breakthrough in negotiations. This statement temporarily boosted market confidence in a deal by the end of 2026.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu signals possibility of deal with Syria but demands buffer zone
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%7%
Netanyahu stated a deal with Syria is possible contingent on Syrian authorities establishing a demilitarized buffer zone, reflecting Israel's firm conditions that complicated negotiations and tempered market expectations.
Israel, Syria, US agree to joint intelligence sharing mechanism in Paris talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 31%6%
Following meetings in Paris, Israel, Syria, and the United States agreed to establish a joint fusion mechanism—a dedicated communication cell—to facilitate coordination on intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial opportunities under US supervision. This agreement was a major diplomatic breakthrough.
Netanyahu signals possibility of deal with Syria but demands buffer zone
December 31, 2026 rises to 38%1%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that an agreement with Syria is achievable if Syria establishes a demilitarized buffer zone, reflecting ongoing negotiation complexities and Israeli security concerns.
Netanyahu says deal with Syria possible, expects demilitarized buffer zone
December 31, 2026 jumps to 35%5%
Netanyahu publicly expressed optimism about a possible deal with Syria involving a demilitarized buffer zone, briefly boosting market confidence in normalization prospects.
Israeli PM Netanyahu says Syria deal possible with demilitarized buffer zone
December 31, 2026 drops to 36%7%
Netanyahu expressed optimism about a possible deal with Syria involving a demilitarized zone from Damascus to Mount Hermon, signaling some progress but also emphasizing Israeli security concerns and red lines, which tempered market optimism.
Netanyahu says Syria deal possible with buffer zone establishment
December 31, 2026 dips to 37%1%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed optimism about a possible deal contingent on Syrian authorities establishing a demilitarized buffer zone, reflecting ongoing negotiation dynamics.
Reports indicate stalled progress due to Israeli demands for full diplomatic relations
December 31, 2026 dips to 36%4%
Negotiations faced setbacks as Israel reportedly shifted demands to require full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected, complicating the process and reducing market optimism.
Reports indicate Israel hardens stance, demands full peace deal for troop withdrawal
December 31, 2026 dips to 31%4%
Israeli media reported that Israel would only withdraw troops from Syrian territory in exchange for a comprehensive peace agreement, not a mere security pact. This hardened stance complicated negotiations and dampened market expectations for near-term normalization.
Israeli army kills 13 in Syrian town of Beit Jinn amid rising tensions
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%14%
The killing of 13 individuals by the Israeli army in Beit Jinn escalated tensions and undermined trust, contributing to market declines in normalization prospects for both June and December 2026 outcomes.
Israeli military raid in southern Syria kills at least 10
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%11%
An Israeli operation in Beit Jin, southern Syria, resulted in at least 10 deaths and heightened tensions. This military action undermined trust and prospects for normalization, causing market prices for June 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026, outcomes to drop significantly.
Saudi Arabia signals no immediate normalization with Israel without Palestinian progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%8%
Saudi Arabia publicly stated that normalization with Israel is contingent on progress toward Palestinian statehood, a condition unlikely to be met soon, dampening regional prospects for Israel-Syria normalization and reducing market confidence.
Saudi Crown Prince reiterates Palestinian statehood as precondition for normalization with Israel
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly and privately emphasized that normalization with Israel remains contingent on progress toward Palestinian statehood, with no concrete steps toward normalization expected soon. This stance reinforced regional skepticism and reduced market confidence in imminent Israel-Syria normalization.
Trump pushes Saudi crown prince to advance Israel‑Syria normalisation, prince resists
During a tense meeting, President Trump urged Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to move toward normalisation with Israel and Syria, but the prince reiterated that Palestinian statehood was a precondition, signalling no imminent progress.
Trump pushes Saudi crown prince to advance Israel‑Syria normalization, prince rebuffs
December 31, 2026 drops to 44%7%
Axios reported that President Trump urged Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to move toward normalizing relations with Israel and Syria, but the prince emphasized that Palestinian statehood remains a precondition, dampening market optimism and triggering a 13‑point drop.
Saudi Arabia signals normalization with Israel contingent on Palestinian statehood progress
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%8%
Saudi Arabia publicly stated normalization with Israel is a distant possibility contingent on Palestinian statehood progress, with no concrete steps toward normalization. This stance influenced regional dynamics and lowered market expectations for Israel-Syria normalization.
Reports indicate Israel demands full diplomatic relations, complicating talks with Syria
June 30, 2026 plunges to 32%18%
Reports emerged that Israel shifted its demands to require full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected as not currently feasible, causing stalled progress and market price declines for normalization by both June and December 2026.
Israel hardens stance, refuses troop withdrawal without full peace deal
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%13%
Reports indicated Israel would not withdraw troops from Syrian territory seized after Assad's fall without a comprehensive peace agreement, complicating negotiations and dampening market optimism.
Israel and Syria hold first U.S.-mediated talks in Paris
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for U.S.-brokered talks on a security arrangement, raising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough but ending without a joint statement, which led to a modest price decline as traders saw no concrete progress.
EU delegation visits Syria, signals openness to diplomatic engagement
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%11%
Senior EU officials met Syrian interim President Ahmad al‑Sharaa, offering substantial financial support and expressing willingness to improve relations, which briefly raised hopes of a Syrian‑Israeli rapprochement before the market corrected as no concrete steps with Israel followed.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu tours IDF positions near Druze village amid tensions
June 30, 2026 drops to 24%9%
Netanyahu visited military positions near the Druze village of Hader in southern Syria, signaling Israel's focus on security and buffer zones rather than normalization, which negatively impacted market sentiment.
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa visits White House to discuss Israel-Syria security treaty
June 30, 2026 drops to 36%14%
Syrian President al-Sharaa met with U.S. officials to discuss a potential security treaty with Israel brokered by the Trump administration, marking a historic moment but also revealing stalled negotiations due to Israel's demands for a comprehensive peace deal before troop withdrawal. This raised doubts about near-term normalization.
Saudi Crown Prince's US visit signals shift away from Israel normalization pressure
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Mohammed bin Salman's White House visit crystallized a shift in U.S.-Saudi relations, reducing U.S. leverage to demand Saudi normalization with Israel. This indicated broader regional resistance to normalization with Israel, negatively impacting prospects for Israel-Syria normalization.
Reports indicate Israel demands full diplomatic relations, complicating talks with Syria
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%3%
Reports emerged that Israel shifted its demands to require full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected as not currently feasible, causing a stall in negotiations and dampening market optimism for normalization by mid-2026.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris for security agreement
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focused on a security agreement to reduce tensions, agreeing to establish a joint communication cell for coordination. This was a positive diplomatic step but did not indicate imminent normalization, leading to moderate market optimism for the longer-term outcome.
Israeli Prime Minister visits Syria buffer zone amid stalled talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the buffer zone in Syria, signaling Israel's intent to maintain military presence despite stalled negotiations. Syria condemned the visit, and reports indicated talks had reached a dead end, dampening prospects for normalization.
Syrian foreign minister says talks on normalising ties with Israel have stalled
Syrian FM Asaad al‑Shaibani publicly stated that the tentative opening toward Israel had stalled, dampening hopes for any diplomatic breakthrough and pushing market sentiment lower.
Israel says it will pull back from Syrian territory only for a full peace deal
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%10%
Israeli officials publicly announced that they would withdraw from Syrian‑occupied positions only in exchange for a comprehensive peace treaty, not a security pact. The hardening of Israel’s stance was reported by Israel’s public broadcaster Kan and caused the market’s “Yes” probability to slide from 51 % to 41 % over the next few days.
Syrian President al-Sharaa emphasizes Israeli withdrawal precondition for agreement
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
During a Washington visit, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that Israel must withdraw to pre-December 8 borders before a final agreement, signaling a major sticking point and dampening market expectations.
Reports indicate Israel demands full diplomatic relations, Syria resists
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%7%
Reports emerged that Israel's terms had shifted to demanding full diplomatic relations, which Syria rejected as not currently feasible, complicating negotiations and dampening market optimism.
Syria insists no full diplomatic relations without Israeli withdrawal
December 31, 2026 plunges to 30%16%
Syria stated it would not agree to full diplomatic relations without Israel withdrawing to pre-December 8 borders, complicating negotiations and causing market confidence to drop sharply.
Warming US-Syria ties put pressure on Israel over Syria security deal
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%3%
Improved relations between US President Trump and Syrian President al-Sharaa increased US leverage in talks, pressuring Israel to advance security arrangements with Syria, though full normalization remained uncertain.
Clashes erupt between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters in Aleppo
June 30, 2026 plunges to 33%19%
Violent clashes between Syrian government forces and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in Aleppo undermined the stability needed for normalization talks, causing market prices for June 30, 2026 to drop sharply.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
June 30, 2026 drops to 36%14%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks focusing on security, sovereignty, and cooperation, signaling a potential thaw but without concrete normalization agreements. This initially supported market optimism for normalization by June 30, 2026.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-mediated talks in Paris to defuse tensions
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
On November 12, 2025, Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris under U.S. mediation to discuss a security agreement focusing on sovereignty, security, and prosperity. The talks aimed to reactivate a 1974 disengagement agreement and establish a joint communication cell for coordination, but no breakthrough on normalization was announced, leading to a moderate price drop.
Israel and Syria agree to establish joint communication mechanism in Paris talks
June 30, 2026 drops to 44%6%
During talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to create a joint fusion mechanism for intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and diplomatic engagement under US supervision, signaling a positive step toward reducing tensions.
U.S.-mediated Israel-Syria talks resume in Paris to defuse tensions
June 30, 2026 rises to 52%2%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris under U.S. mediation to discuss a security agreement focused on sovereignty, stability, and security, raising hopes for normalization. This event initially boosted market optimism for normalization by June 30, 2026.
Trump declares Israel‑Syria talks a turning point for regional stability
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%26%
Trump publicly praised the renewed talks, saying a “new page” was being turned. The optimistic statement temporarily boosted the market, raising the December‑2026 probability to 77 % before the subsequent reversal.
U.S.-mediated Israeli-Syrian talks resume in Paris aiming for security agreement
June 30, 2026 drops to 36%14%
Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under U.S. mediation to discuss a security agreement focused on sovereignty, stability, and security, signaling a tentative diplomatic opening. This raised market optimism temporarily for normalization by June 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
U.S.-mediated Syria-Israel talks resume in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 39%12%
Syrian and Israeli officials began U.S.-mediated talks in Paris aimed at reaching a security agreement, with Syria seeking withdrawal of Israeli forces from a buffer zone and Israel seeking protection of its border.
Israel, Syria, and US agree to establish joint fusion mechanism for intelligence and diplomatic coordination
June 30, 2026 drops to 36%14%
Following meetings in Paris, Israel, Syria, and the US announced a joint fusion mechanism to facilitate intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, diplomatic engagement, and commercial cooperation under US supervision. This marked a significant step toward reducing tensions but fell short of full diplomatic normalization.
U.S.-mediated talks between Israel and Syria resume in Paris to seek security agreement
December 31, 2026 drops to 45%6%
Syrian and Israeli officials, led by Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani, resumed U.S.-brokered talks in Paris aiming to reactivate the 1974 disengagement agreement and reduce tensions. This raised hopes for normalization, causing initial market optimism.
Renewed Israel-Syria talks in Paris focus on security and economic cooperation
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under US auspices to discuss reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement and establishing mechanisms for de-escalation and commercial ties, signaling a diplomatic push under President Trump's vision for Middle East peace.
Israel and Syria agree to create joint mechanism for de-escalation and economic ties
During talks in Paris, Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint mechanism to facilitate intelligence sharing, de-escalation, and commercial cooperation, signaling a potential thaw in relations under US mediation. This raised market optimism for normalization by both June and December 2026.
U.S.-mediated talks between Israel and Syria resume in Paris
Officials from Israel and Syria met in Paris to discuss a security agreement aimed at defusing tensions, including reactivating a 1974 disengagement agreement and Israeli withdrawal from a buffer zone. This raised hopes for normalization, causing initial market optimism.
Israel and Syria resume U.S.-brokered talks in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 43%8%
Syrian and Israeli officials met in Paris for U.S.-mediated talks to broker a security agreement, signaling renewed diplomatic engagement but no immediate path to normalization.
Israel and Syria resume diplomatic talks under US mediation in Paris
December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Senior Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris under US auspices to restart diplomatic dialogue focusing on border security and regional stability, signaling a renewed diplomatic push.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa rules out direct negotiations with Israel for now
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%3%
In an interview, Syria's President al-Sharaa stated Syria would not enter direct negotiations with Israel immediately, dampening hopes for rapid normalization and causing market prices to fall.
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题