Traders assign overwhelming probability to Morena securing the most seats in Mexico’s upcoming legislative election, consistent with its sustained polling advantage and strong performance in recent national contests. The party benefits from consolidated backing tied to the sitting administration’s agenda on economic and social policy. Opposition groups such as PRI, PAN, MC, PT, and PVEM remain divided, reducing prospects for coordinated gains under the mixed-member proportional system. Although the frontrunner’s lead is pronounced, shifts in regional turnout, candidate selection controversies, or late economic developments could still narrow margins and affect final seat distribution.