Ongoing hostilities and entrenched positions on territory and security guarantees continue to block direct leader-level engagement, with Russian President Vladimir Putin stating in May 2026 that any meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would occur only in a third country after a comprehensive peace accord is finalized. U.S.-brokered trilateral envoy talks in Geneva, Abu Dhabi, and Miami produced limited military progress but stalled on core political issues through early 2026, with a prior June deadline unmet amid competing regional priorities. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring no bilateral summit before 2027, while modest probabilities on neutral venues such as Turkey or Gulf states reflect their past roles in indirect diplomacy without indicating near-term breakthroughs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to sign agreements
Peskov reiterated that any meeting would be limited to Moscow and only for signing already‑agreed terms, cementing the expectation that no neutral‑ground meeting will occur before 2027.
Zelenskyy warns of limited window for diplomatic breakthrough before winter
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
Zelenskyy emphasized a critical six-month window to seize battlefield initiative and strengthen his hand for peace talks, highlighting the urgency of diplomatic efforts and the need for international pressure on Russia, sustaining market belief in a meeting but with timing uncertainty.
Zelenskyy meets Belarus opposition leader Tsikhanouskaya in Kyiv
Zelenskyy met Belarusian opposition leader Tsikhanouskaya in Kyiv, signalling increased attention on Belarus as a possible venue, which lifted the “Belarus” probability modestly.
Putin and Lukashenko hold joint nuclear‑drill video call
Belarus rises to 1%1%
A joint video‑call between Putin and Belarusian leader Lukashenko on nuclear drills highlighted Belarus’s deepening involvement with Russia, nudging the Belarus outcome upward from 0 % to 1 % as traders reassessed the likelihood of a meeting on Belarusian soil.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for talks, rejects Moscow and Belarus
No meeting before 2027 rises to 86%2%
Zelenskyy issued a bold public invitation to Putin to meet in Kyiv, challenging him to come if he dares, while firmly rejecting Moscow and Belarus as venues. This hardened the market's view that a meeting in Russia or Belarus is unlikely and increased the probability of no meeting before 2027.
Kremlin insists Putin will meet Zelenskyy only after final peace deal is completed
No meeting before 2027 drops to 75%8%
The Kremlin clarified that Putin's meeting with Zelenskyy would only occur to finalize a comprehensive peace agreement, underscoring Moscow's position that no summit will happen without a concluded deal, which tempered market optimism about an early meeting.
Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelenskyy only after peace deal finalized
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%4%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin is prepared to meet Zelenskyy only after all major terms of a Ukraine settlement are finalized, reinforcing the market's dominant expectation of no meeting before 2027 without a comprehensive agreement.
Zelenskyy confirms Putin ready for real meetings but format needed
Zelenskyy stated Putin is finally ready for real meetings, acknowledging Ukraine's push and readiness, but emphasized the need to find a suitable format, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about a meeting venue or timing.
Putin states some US peace proposals are unacceptable, signaling challenges ahead
Russia rises to 4%3%
Putin publicly stated that certain points in the US peace plan are unacceptable, underscoring the difficulties in reaching a deal and contributing to a decline in the market's confidence in a meeting before 2027, while slightly increasing interest in Russia and the US as meeting venues.
Zelenskyy: Putin finally says he is ready for real meetings
Zelenskyy’s May 10 address stressed that Putin had finally signaled readiness for “real meetings”, but the same speech emphasised the requirement of a final framework, keeping the market weighted toward “No meeting”.
Putin says meeting possible only after comprehensive accord
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Putin reiterated that any meeting would only occur after a comprehensive peace accord, reaffirming the lack of a near‑term encounter and reinforcing the market’s “No meeting” trajectory.
Zelenskyy says Putin finally ready for real meetings, but format needed
Zelenskyy stated that Putin is finally ready for real meetings and that Ukraine has long been ready, but a format for the meeting must be found. This indicated progress in willingness but no confirmed meeting, supporting the market's high probability of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy confirms Putin is finally ready for real meetings, format to be found
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%3%
Zelenskyy acknowledged Putin's readiness for real meetings and emphasized the need to find a suitable format, reinforcing the conditional nature of any summit and maintaining market caution about an imminent meeting.
Zelenskyy confirms Putin is ready for real meetings, but format must be found
Turkey rises to 5%2%
Zelenskyy stated that Putin is finally ready for real meetings and that Ukraine has long been ready, but a format for the meeting must be agreed upon. This reinforced market expectations of a meeting but with uncertainty on location and timing.
Zelenskyy confirms readiness for real meetings, insists on venue outside Russia and Belarus
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
Zelenskyy stated readiness for real meetings with Putin but rejected Russia and Belarus as venues, reinforcing market view that a meeting before 2027 is unlikely without a breakthrough.
Putin suggests his war on Ukraine is ending and he could meet Zelensky abroad
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Putin reiterated willingness to meet Zelensky outside Russia, reinforcing that any meeting would require a comprehensive accord, which further dampened short‑term expectations and kept the “No meeting” price near its peak.
Putin says he is open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia
Putin publicly announced willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace deal was reached, the first such statement. The news increased speculation that a meeting could occur outside Russia, nudging the “US” and “Qatar / UAE” odds upward while slightly denting the “No meeting” price.
Putin says he will meet Zelenskyy abroad if a peace deal is reached
Russia rises to 2%1%
For the first time Putin said he was willing to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace deal is reached. The novelty of a Russian‐led invitation raised the probability of a meeting occurring in Russia, nudging the Russia outcome up from 1 % to 2 %.
Putin signals willingness to meet Zelenskyy outside Russia after peace deal
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%1%
For the first time, Putin publicly stated he would meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace agreement is reached, marking a significant shift from previous positions and fueling market speculation about a possible meeting venue outside Russia.
Putin says open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia if peace deal reached
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
For the first time, Putin publicly expressed willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace deal is agreed upon, signaling a potential shift in stance. However, this was conditional on a finalized deal, so no immediate meeting was expected, sustaining market skepticism.
Putin says he’s open to meeting Zelensky outside Russia once a lasting deal is reached
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 81%12%
For the first time Putin publicly said he would consider meeting Zelensky in a third country only after a lasting peace deal is reached. The conditional offer lowered the chance of an imminent meeting, supporting the continued decline of all country‑specific outcomes.
Putin open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia for first time
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
Putin publicly stated willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country if a lasting peace deal is agreed, marking a shift in stance but contingent on peace progress, slightly affecting market optimism.
Putin for first time open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia after peace deal
No meeting before 2027 dips to 83%2%
Putin publicly stated willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace agreement is reached, marking a significant shift from previous refusals. This tempered market optimism, as the meeting was conditioned on finalized agreements, limiting near-term prospects.
Putin signals openness to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia after peace deal
Turkey rises to 5%2%
For the first time, Putin stated he would meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace agreement is reached, marking a shift from previous positions and slightly increasing market confidence in a meeting occurring outside Russia or Belarus.
Putin meets US envoys in Moscow to discuss peace proposals
Russia rises to 3%2%
Russian President Putin held marathon talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow to discuss peace proposals, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but also highlighting unresolved issues, which influenced market prices for Russia and the US as potential meeting locations.
Kremlin reiterates Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only for finalizing agreements
No meeting before 2027 dips to 79%4%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized that Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow only if the meeting is productive and aimed at finalizing agreements, limiting chances of a meeting without prior progress. This reinforced market belief in no meeting before 2027.
Russian drone strikes cause major blackouts in Ukraine amid ongoing peace talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 79%4%
Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian power grids caused blackouts during ongoing US-led peace talks, highlighting continued conflict and complicating prospects for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting. This sustained market odds favoring no meeting before 2027.
Second day of peace talks held in Abu Dhabi amid Russian attacks on Ukraine
Negotiators from Ukraine, Russia, and the US met in Abu Dhabi for a second day of talks aimed at ending the war, despite ongoing Russian attacks. This event supported the possibility of a meeting in Qatar/UAE and increased market interest in diplomatic venues.
Zelenskyy expresses readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan amid stalled US-led talks
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated his willingness to meet Putin there, emphasizing openness to venues outside Russia and Belarus, reflecting Ukraine's flexible approach to finding a meeting location and increasing speculation about alternative venues.
Zelenskyy expresses readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%2%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated he is ready to meet Putin there, emphasizing openness to neutral venues except Russia or Belarus. This statement supported the market's modest rise in Qatar/UAE and Turkey options.
Zelensky says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
Turkey rises to 5%2%
Zelensky visited Azerbaijan and said he was ready to meet Putin there, highlighting a new possible venue but still no concrete arrangement, keeping the market tilted toward “No meeting”.
Zelenskyy expresses readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
Turkey rises to 5%2%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated he is ready to meet Putin in any country except Russia or Belarus, signaling openness to a third-country venue and increasing market interest in alternative locations like Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, rejects Russia and Belarus venues
Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan but ruled out Russia and Belarus, signaling preference for neutral locations and impacting market probabilities for Turkey and Qatar/UAE.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan but rejects Russia or Belarus venues
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin there, explicitly excluding Russia and Belarus as possible locations due to their roles in the conflict. This statement further reduced market confidence in meetings in Russia or Belarus and supported the growing expectation of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
No meeting before 2027 drops to 78%6%
Zelenskyy announced readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, signalling willingness to travel to a neutral venue. The statement kept a slim chance alive for a meeting but overall market sentiment remained dominated by the “No meeting” outcome.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
Belarus rises to 1%1%
Zelenskyy publicly stated he was ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, signalling a new possible venue and prompting a modest rise in the Belarus outcome (which counts as Russia‑aligned territory) from 0 % to 1 %. Traders saw the Azerbaijan hint as a proxy for a broader regional venue.
Zelenskyy announces trilateral peace talks with Russia and US in UAE
Qatar / UAE rises to 3%1%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US would be held in the United Arab Emirates, signaling a diplomatic push that increased market interest in Qatar/UAE and Turkey as potential meeting locations.
Ukraine pushes for direct Zelenskyy-Putin summit to revive peace talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%3%
Ukraine's top diplomat advocated for a face-to-face summit between Zelenskyy and Putin to inject momentum into stalled US-led peace efforts. This renewed push came amid increased Ukrainian attacks and ongoing refusal by Putin to accept unconditional ceasefire.
Ukraine pushes for Zelenskyy-Putin summit to revive peace talks
Turkey rises to 5%1%
Ukraine publicly advocated for a direct summit between Zelenskyy and Putin to inject momentum into stalled US-led peace efforts, with Turkey proposed as a potential host. This increased market interest in Turkey as a meeting venue but skepticism remained high due to Russia's conditions and ongoing conflict.
Ukraine pushes for Zelenskyy-Putin summit to revive stalled peace efforts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%3%
Ukraine advocated for a face-to-face summit to inject momentum into US-led peace efforts, but Putin refused unconditional ceasefire demands, keeping direct talks elusive and market confidence in a meeting low.
Kremlin states Putin will meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict agreements
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%4%
On April 22, 2026, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin would only meet Zelenskyy to finalize peace agreements, signaling that a meeting is unlikely before such agreements are reached. This statement reinforced market confidence in the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Putin reiterates meeting Zelenskyy only after final peace deal reached
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%4%
Putin publicly stated on April 22, 2026, that a meeting with Zelenskyy would only occur as a final step to sign a peace treaty, possibly in a third country. This reinforced market expectations that no meeting would happen before 2027.
Kremlin spokesman states Putin-Zelenskyy meeting only for finalizing conflict agreements
Peskov clarified that Putin would only meet Zelenskyy for the purpose of finalizing agreements on the conflict, signaling a significant shift in Russian diplomatic posture and reducing expectations for a meeting.
Kremlin says Putin can meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict arrangements
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy only to agree on final conflict arrangements, emphasizing a narrow scope for any meeting and limiting market optimism for broader talks.
Ukraine formally requests Turkey to host Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
Turkey rises to 6%4%
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha announced that Kyiv has asked Turkey to help arrange a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin to reinvigorate stalled peace talks, emphasizing readiness to meet in any country except Russia or Belarus. This boosted the market probability for Turkey as a meeting venue.
Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelensky only in Moscow and only to finalise conflict arrangements
Russia plunges to 1%43%
Kremlin spokesman Peskov said Putin would meet Zelensky only in Moscow and only to finalize a deal, signalling a very narrow venue. This reinforced market expectations that a meeting was unlikely before 2027, keeping the “No meeting” price near its high.
Kremlin states Putin will meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict arrangements
Russia drops to 2%6%
Kremlin spokesman clarified Putin’s willingness to meet Zelenskyy only for finalizing agreements, limiting expectations for broader peace talks and reducing meeting likelihood in Russia or Belarus.
Kremlin says Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize agreements
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated Putin would meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow and only to finalize agreements already reached, rejecting other venues. This hardened Russia's position and reduced market expectations for a meeting outside Russia, reinforcing the likelihood of no meeting before 2027.
Ukraine requests Turkey to host Zelenskyy-Putin summit to revive peace talks
Turkey rises to 5%3%
Ukraine officially asked Turkey to facilitate a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin to inject momentum into stalled peace negotiations, signaling Kyiv's willingness to meet in a neutral venue other than Russia or Belarus. This raised market interest in Turkey as a potential meeting location.
Kremlin says Putin can meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict arrangements
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%3%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated Putin would only meet Zelenskyy to finalize agreements, not for broader talks, limiting chances of a meaningful summit and reinforcing market expectations of no meeting.
Putin will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalise agreements
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%1%
Kremlin spokesman Peskov said Putin would only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow and only to finalise conflict arrangements, effectively closing off all neutral‑country options and strengthening the market’s “No meeting” position.
Ukraine asks Turkey to host Zelensky‑Putin summit
Turkey rises to 5%2%
Ukraine’s foreign minister announced that Kyiv had formally asked Turkey to host a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin. The request highlighted Turkey as a potential neutral venue and pushed the market away from “No meeting before 2027” toward options involving third‑party hosts, nudging the “Turkey” and “Qatar / UAE” probabilities upward.
Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelensky only to finalize peace deal
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 81%6%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Putin would meet Zelenskyy only to sign a final peace treaty, underscoring the difficulty of arranging a meeting and reinforcing market belief that a summit is unlikely before 2027. This pushed the “No meeting before 2027” outcome upward.
Kremlin states Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize agreements
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow and only to finalize conflict arrangements, emphasizing the limited scope and location of any potential meeting. This hardened stance diminished market expectations for meetings outside Russia and increased the likelihood of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy demands direct talks with Putin as Istanbul peace summit nears
Ahead of a proposed peace summit in Istanbul, Zelenskyy insisted he would only attend if Putin is present, emphasizing the need for genuine negotiations. The Kremlin had not confirmed Putin's attendance, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about a meeting.
Zelenskyy rules out Russia and Belarus as venues for talks
Russia dips to 1%1%
Zelenskyy publicly stated that peace negotiations with Putin cannot be held in Russia or Belarus, citing their roles as aggressors. This sharply reduced market confidence in Russia and Belarus as meeting venues, pushing their prices near zero.
Zelenskyy meets European leaders in London to discuss US peace plan and security
Zelenskyy met with British, French, and German leaders in London to coordinate on the US peace plan and security guarantees, showing European support but no direct meeting with Putin. This maintained market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council announces dissolution after leader flees to UAE
The UAE-backed separatist Southern Transitional Council in Yemen announced its dissolution following internal divisions and regional pressure, with its leader fleeing to the UAE. This development further strained Saudi-UAE relations and reduced the chances of the UAE hosting a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Istanbul to restart talks
Turkey rises to 3%1%
Zelenskyy expressed readiness to hold peace talks with Putin in Istanbul, signaling openness to Turkey as a venue and supporting the market's modest rise in Turkey as a potential meeting location.
Zelenskyy signs defence deals with UAE and Qatar on Gulf tour
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%2%
Zelenskyy’s Gulf tour culminated in defence‑cooperation agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. The high‑profile visits raised expectations that the Middle East could serve as a meeting venue, lifting the “Qatar / UAE” price while the “No meeting” price fell slightly.
Zelenskyy signs defence cooperation deal in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia dips to 1%1%
Zelenskyy’s surprise visit to Saudi Arabia and the signing of a defence cooperation pact shifted market sentiment away from the Gulf as a meeting venue, pushing the Saudi Arabia outcome down from 2 % to 1 %. The focus moved toward other regions.
No breakthrough in Geneva talks between Russia and Ukraine, both sides say
The Geneva talks ended with no breakthrough and persistent political and military differences, including over territory, reducing expectations for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting and reinforcing the market's preference for no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy confirms trilateral talks planned in Abu Dhabi amid Middle East escalation
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%1%
Despite regional security concerns, Zelenskyy confirmed trilateral talks with the US and Russia planned in Abu Dhabi, but noted uncertainty about the venue. This maintained market skepticism about a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy says Russia peace talks depend on Middle East situation, no Putin summit agreed
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%1%
Ukrainian intelligence chief stated Russia had not agreed to a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, indicating no direct meeting was planned soon, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Saudi Arabia bombs Yemen port city over UAE weapons shipment to separatists
Saudi Arabia plunges to 1%48%
Saudi Arabia bombed Yemen’s Mukalla port city after a weapons shipment from the UAE to separatist forces, escalating regional tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This conflict distracted regional powers and complicated diplomatic efforts, indirectly reducing the likelihood of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in Saudi Arabia or UAE.
Zelenskyy expects next Russia meeting in Abu Dhabi in early March
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%4%
Zelenskyy indicated a potential trilateral meeting involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Abu Dhabi, signaling diplomatic progress but no confirmed direct meeting with Putin. This briefly raised hopes but did not significantly shift market prices for a meeting venue.
Zelenskyy expects new peace talks in Abu Dhabi in March
Zelenskyy announced plans for a new round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi, increasing market interest in Qatar/UAE as a meeting location, though actual meeting with Putin remained uncertain.
Zelenskyy expects new peace talks in Abu Dhabi, open to meeting Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%2%
Zelenskyy announced expectations for a new round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi, expressing that the format could solve many issues and implying readiness to meet Putin in a neutral location. This raised market hopes for a meeting outside Russia or Belarus but no confirmed meeting occurred.
Zelenskyy expects next peace talks with Russia in Abu Dhabi in March
Zelenskyy announced that the next round of peace talks with Russia would likely be held in Abu Dhabi in early March, signaling a preference for a neutral venue and raising hopes for a meeting outside Russia or Ukraine.
Zelenskyy expects peace talks in Abu Dhabi, hints at meeting Putin
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%2%
Zelenskyy announced expectations for a new round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi, expressing hope for a meeting with Putin in a trilateral format. This raised some market interest in a meeting in Qatar/UAE but did not materialize.
Trump tells Zelenskyy he wants war to end within a month, discusses trilateral meeting
Trump told Zelenskyy in a phone call that he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed the possibility of a trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy, and Putin, raising hopes for a meeting and influencing market expectations.
Lukashenka and Putin schedule Union State meeting for Feb 25 in Moscow
Belarus dips to 1%1%
An announcement that Lukashenka and Putin would meet in Moscow on Feb 25 under the Union State framework further signaled that any Zelensky‑Putin encounter would be unlikely, reinforcing the “No meeting” view and keeping all venue probabilities near the 1 % floor.
US envoy expresses hope for Zelenskyy-Putin meeting soon
Turkey rises to 6%3%
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff expressed strong belief in a potential Zelenskyy-Putin meeting within weeks, aiming to resolve territorial issues. This raised market optimism briefly but did not translate into an actual meeting, limiting price gains for meeting locations.
Zelenskyy says meeting with Putin could be decisive for ceasefire
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%2%
Zelenskyy stated that a face-to-face meeting with Putin could be decisive in reaching a workable ceasefire agreement, emphasizing Ukraine's readiness for a leaders' format meeting and the importance of US mediation, which supported market optimism but no concrete meeting was set.
US, Russia, Ukraine continue peace talks without direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
As of February 2026, peace talks mediated by the US continued but no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy occurred, maintaining market skepticism about a near-term meeting and supporting the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva focus on territory, peace plan progress
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%1%
Trilateral talks in Geneva involving US, Ukraine, and Russia focused on territorial issues and peace proposals. Despite some progress, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov dismissed optimism, and no agreement on a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was reached, dampening expectations for a near-term summit.
Trilateral peace talks in Geneva with US, Ukraine, Russia; no direct meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
In February 2026, trilateral talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia took place in Geneva focusing on territorial issues and ceasefire, but both Zelenskyy and Putin rejected offers to meet in person. This maintained market skepticism about a direct meeting occurring soon.
Geneva trilateral talks with Ukraine, Russia, and US advance negotiations but no meeting set
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%2%
Negotiations in Geneva included security advisers and Putin's aide, marking a new phase in talks. Despite progress, no agreement on a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting location or date was reached, sustaining market doubts about a meeting before 2027.
Russian attacks on Ukraine continue amid peace talks in UAE
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%4%
Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine occurred simultaneously with ongoing peace talks in Abu Dhabi involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US, undermining prospects for a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin and increasing market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Lukashenka and Putin discuss Union State agenda in phone call
Belarus plunges to 1%46%
Lukashenka’s phone call with Putin discussed the upcoming Union State council meeting, hinting that a Belarus‑Russia venue might host the next high‑level talks. The market responded by moving the “Belarus” probability sharply lower, from around 47 % to 1 %.
Putin says any Zelensky‑Putin meeting could only be in Russia or Belarus
Turkey plunges to 3%26%
Putin’s public suggestion that any meeting could only be held in Russia or Belarus, coupled with Zelensky’s invitation to Kyiv, led markets to view meetings in Qatar/UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and Turkey as highly unlikely, pushing all those outcomes to 1 %‑2 % levels.
Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy threaten trilateral peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%2%
Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure undermined trust in peace talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia, with both Putin and Zelensky rejecting in-person meetings, dampening prospects for a direct meeting.
Trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi amid ongoing conflict
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
US, Ukraine, and Russia held trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, but both Putin and Zelenskyy rejected offers to meet in person. Putin suggested Russia or Belarus as hosts, while Zelenskyy invited Putin to Ukraine, reflecting ongoing stalemate and no direct meeting.
Putin and Zelenskyy reject in-person meeting offers amid energy strikes
No meeting before 2027 dips to 77%1%
Both leaders rejected proposals to meet in person, with Putin suggesting Russia or Belarus as hosts and Zelenskyy inviting Putin to Ukraine. Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure cast doubt on sincerity, further reducing meeting prospects before 2027.
Ukraine shifts approach to peace talks amid Russian attacks
Qatar / UAE dips to 3%2%
In early February 2026, Zelenskyy indicated a shift in Ukraine's approach to peace talks in the Emirates following heavy Russian bombardment. This development did not lead to a direct meeting with Putin, contributing to low market prices for meetings in Qatar/UAE and other locations.
Trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi postponed amid ongoing tensions
Scheduled trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Abu Dhabi were postponed, with both Putin and Zelensky rejecting offers to meet in person. Putin suggested Russia or Belarus as hosts, but Zelenskyy insisted on any country except Russia or Belarus, maintaining the deadlock and reducing chances of a meeting in those locations.
Putin agrees to halt Kyiv strikes after Trump’s request, but both leaders still refuse in‑person talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 78%9%
Russia halted strikes on Kyiv after a personal request by Trump, but both leaders still declined a face‑to‑face meeting, confirming the stalemate and contributing to the market’s shift toward “No meeting”.
Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid threaten peace talks
Russia launched attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure just before trilateral talks, casting doubt on Moscow’s sincerity and reducing market confidence in imminent meetings, especially in Russia or Belarus.
Putin agrees to pause strikes on Kyiv until Feb 1, 2026
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Russia’s abrupt halt to Kyiv attacks until Feb 1 2026, announced by Trump, was reported as a de‑escalation step but did not include a Zelenskyy‑Putin meeting, further cementing the market’s shift toward “No meeting before 2027” (price climbed to 81 % by 2026‑04‑14).
US-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi described as constructive but no breakthrough
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 76%6%
Ukraine, Russia, and the US held trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi, which Zelenskyy called 'constructive.' Despite progress on some issues, key sticking points like territorial concessions and peacekeepers remain unresolved, maintaining market skepticism about imminent meetings.
Next round of trilateral talks scheduled in UAE, Zelenskyy says
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Following constructive trilateral talks in the UAE, negotiators planned to return for another round on Feb. 1, showing ongoing diplomacy but no direct leader meeting. This maintained high market odds for no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to Kyiv for talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%14%
Zelenskyy publicly invited Putin to Kyiv, stating the request had been received. While the invitation raised hope of a meeting in Ukraine, the Kremlin’s vague response kept the odds of a meeting low, reinforcing the “No meeting” trend.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to Kyiv for talks, Kremlin confirms receipt
Zelenskyy publicly invited Putin to Kyiv for talks, which Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed Putin had received and agreed to consider. Zelenskyy ruled out meeting in Moscow or Belarus, complicating prospects for a meeting in Russia and pushing market probability away from Russia and Belarus options.
Zelensky invites Putin to Kyiv; Kremlin says Putin received the request
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 81%6%
Zelensky publicly invited Putin to Kyiv; the Kremlin confirmed the request was received. The invitation, combined with Putin’s refusal to meet in Kyiv, kept expectations low for a near‑term meeting, reinforcing the “No meeting” trend.
Kremlin states Moscow is only venue for Putin-Zelensky meeting
Russia plunges to 8%36%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declared that Moscow is the sole location under discussion for a potential Putin-Zelensky summit, emphasizing Russia's position and impacting market confidence in meetings elsewhere.
US-mediated Ukraine-Russia talks in Abu Dhabi show progress but no breakthrough
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 79%12%
Negotiations mediated by the US in Abu Dhabi involved Ukraine and Russia discussing key issues including territorial matters and ceasefire parameters. Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin personally to resolve sensitive issues, but no meeting was scheduled, maintaining market skepticism about near-term talks.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, refuses Moscow or Belarus
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 70%6%
Zelenskyy issued a bold public invitation to Putin to meet in Kyiv 'if he dares,' while firmly rejecting meetings in Moscow or Belarus, labeling Russia as aggressor and Belarus as partner in war. This hardened positions and reduced market confidence in meetings in Russia or Belarus.
Putin warns Russia will extend gains if peace talks fail
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
Russian President Putin publicly warned that Russia would seek to extend its territorial gains in Ukraine if peace talks fail, signaling hardened positions and reducing likelihood of a direct meeting with Zelenskyy, which influenced market prices downward for meeting locations and upward for no meeting.
Trump hosts Board of Peace signing ceremony in Davos with Putin invited
The US hosted a Board of Peace signing ceremony in Davos, inviting Russia and other countries, including those in the Middle East, to participate in peace efforts. This diplomatic initiative raised hopes but did not lead to a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, affecting market prices for meeting locations.
Kremlin aide praises Trump's peace efforts after Zelenskyy meeting and Putin call
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%2%
Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev praised Trump's peace efforts following the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting and a phone call between Trump and Putin, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting. This reinforced market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy meets Trump in Florida to discuss Ukraine security guarantees
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 80%13%
Zelenskyy met with Trump in Florida to discuss security guarantees and peace proposals, signaling progress in US-led diplomacy but no direct meeting with Putin. This meeting increased optimism for peace but did not raise chances of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in the US or elsewhere.
Russian official alleges Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 72%5%
Russia claimed Ukraine launched a drone attack on Putin's residence, which Zelenskyy dismissed as disinformation. This escalated tensions and hardened Russia's negotiating stance, reducing chances of a meeting in Russia or Belarus and lowering related market prices.
Putin claims Ukrainian drone attack, toughens peace stance
No meeting before 2027 dips to 59%4%
Following Zelenskyy's meeting with Trump, Putin cited a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence as justification for a tougher line in peace talks, signaling reluctance to compromise and reducing chances of a direct meeting soon.
Trump and Zelenskyy suggest peace deal could be close after cordial meeting
No meeting before 2027 rises to 71%1%
Following a more cordial meeting, Trump and Zelenskyy expressed optimism about concluding a peace deal soon, but no direct meeting with Putin occurred. This maintained market expectations that a face-to-face meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was unlikely before 2027.
Zelenskyy meets Trump in Florida amid peace deal optimism
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 67%8%
Zelenskyy met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, with Trump stating peace talks were in final stages and he planned to speak with Putin again. This raised hopes for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting but no direct meeting occurred, influencing market prices.
Trump and Zelenskyy suggest peace deal could be close after Mar-a-Lago meeting
Trump and Zelenskyy emerged from talks at Mar-a-Lago expressing optimism that a peace deal was imminent, boosting confidence in a resolution involving US-mediated negotiations.
Trump and Putin hold productive call ahead of Zelenskyy peace talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 64%5%
Donald Trump announced a 'good and very productive' call with Putin just before meeting Zelenskyy to discuss a peace plan. This raised hopes for progress but did not resolve venue disputes, keeping meeting prospects uncertain.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet at Mar-a-Lago for peace talks amid renewed diplomatic push
The high-profile lunch meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago followed a flurry of US, Russian, and Ukrainian talks, signaling renewed diplomatic momentum for a potential peace deal.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at Mar-a-Lago amid peace talks push
US plunges to 2%20%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met with US President Trump in Florida to discuss peace negotiations, signaling progress but with significant obstacles remaining, including Putin's willingness to sign a deal. This high-profile meeting raised hopes but did not lead to a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, causing a slight market shift away from a meeting in Russia or US.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at Mar-a-Lago amid peace talks push
No meeting before 2027 dips to 55%4%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met with US President Trump in Florida to discuss a peace deal with Russia, with Trump expressing optimism about nearing an agreement and planning to call Putin. This high-profile meeting raised hopes but did not include Putin, keeping direct Zelenskyy-Putin talks uncertain.
Trump hosts Zelensky at Mar‑a‑Lago, says Putin “serious” but no direct meeting scheduled
No meeting before 2027 surges to 75%16%
Trump and Zelensky met at Mar‑a‑Lago; Trump said Putin was “serious” but no direct meeting was arranged. The lack of a three‑way summit caused traders to push the probability of any Zelensky‑Putin meeting down, driving the “No meeting before 2027” price up sharply.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet at Mar-a-Lago amid peace talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 80%9%
President Trump met Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Florida, expressing optimism about progress toward a peace deal and suggesting Putin also wanted a trilateral meeting. This raised market hopes for a meeting but did not include Putin, limiting expectations for a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet at Mar-a-Lago, Trump speaks with Putin, peace deal seen close
No meeting before 2027 rises to 70%4%
Zelenskyy met Trump in Florida and Trump spoke with Putin by phone, expressing optimism about a peace deal nearing completion. Despite this, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin took place, reinforcing market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Trump says Putin ‘serious’ after Mar‑a‑Lago talks with Zelenskyy
No meeting before 2027 surges to 82%15%
After a joint press conference in Florida, Trump claimed Putin was “serious” about peace, but no personal meeting was arranged. The absence of a concrete rendez‑vous led the market to further favour the “No meeting” outcome.
Zelenskyy to meet Trump in US amid ongoing peace talks, Putin shows little sign of softening
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 66%5%
Zelenskyy planned a meeting with Trump in Florida as part of a diplomatic push for peace, but Putin remained resistant. The meeting raised hopes for progress but no direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred, leading to continued market skepticism about a meeting location.
Zelenskyy to meet Trump in Florida to discuss peace plan
US plunges to 3%19%
Zelenskyy confirmed a meeting with former US President Trump to discuss peace negotiations, highlighting US involvement but no direct talks with Putin. This kept market expectations for a US venue low and reinforced the likelihood of no meeting before 2027.
Zelensky to travel to US for Trump meeting amid push for Ukraine peace deal
US plunges to 3%19%
Zelensky announced travel to the US for a Trump meeting in Florida, shifting focus to US‑Ukrainian talks and away from a direct Zelensky‑Putin meeting, reinforcing the “No meeting” price rise.
Zelenskyy to travel to US for Trump meeting amid push for Ukraine deal
US dips to 2%3%
Zelenskyy confirmed travel to the US for a planned meeting with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, marking a significant diplomatic development in the peace process.
Hungarian premier says he would talk to Putin but won’t initiate contact
A brief statement that Hungarian leader Péter Magyar might speak with Putin raised the Hungary outcome to 23 % on 2025‑11‑06, but the probability quickly fell as attention shifted to US‑led talks.
U.S. envoy Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow as Zelenskyy tours Europe
Russia plunges to 1%43%
U.S. envoy Witkoff met Putin in Moscow while Zelenskyy toured Europe, signalling that a direct Zelenskyy‑Putin encounter was not on the agenda and contributing to the sharp drop in the Russia outcome (price fell to 1 % by 2025‑12‑14).
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow
US plunges to 2%20%
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff travelled to Moscow for a closed‑door meeting with Putin. The news shifted attention to U.S.‑led mediation and reduced the market’s view that the meeting would occur in the U.S., sending the “US” outcome down from ~22 % to ~2 % over the following weeks.
Zelenskyy announces new round of peace talks with US cooperation
No meeting before 2027 rises to 65%4%
Zelenskyy announced ongoing coordination with American representatives to advance peace and security guarantees, signaling diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting with Putin. This maintained market uncertainty and supported the 'No meeting before 2027' option.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine ready to move forward with US peace plan
US plunges to 5%44%
Zelenskyy announced Kyiv was ready to advance a US-backed peace deal and discuss sensitive points with Donald Trump, signaling a major diplomatic step toward potential Zelenskyy-Putin talks.
Zelenskyy signals readiness to discuss US peace plan with Trump, Trump envoy to meet Putin
No meeting before 2027 surges to 79%20%
Zelenskyy expressed willingness to move forward with a US-backed peace deal and discuss sensitive points with Trump, while Trump dispatched envoy Steve Witkoff to meet Putin in Moscow. This raised hopes for progress but Trump stated he would only meet Zelenskyy and Putin when the deal was in final stages, causing market shifts.
Trump dispatches special envoy Witkoff to meet Putin in Moscow
US plunges to 5%44%
Trump sent US special envoy Steve Witkoff to meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow, part of a broader diplomatic effort to finalize a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.
Geneva peace talks flashpoint as Trump administration leaks 28-point Ukraine peace plan
The controversial 28-point peace plan leaked to the press, reportedly involving a cap on Ukraine's military and a freeze on NATO membership, causing market uncertainty about the feasibility of a peace deal.
Ukraine appeals to Turkey to help organize Zelenskyy-Putin summit
Turkey plunges to 7%22%
Ukraine requested Turkey's assistance in organizing a summit-level meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, with Turkey seen as a mediator. Kremlin stated Putin is ready to meet in Moscow only if the meeting yields concrete results, limiting venue options and keeping market prices for Turkey and Russia low.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, refuses Moscow or Belarus
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
Zelenskyy issued a bold public invitation to Putin to meet in Kyiv, challenging him to come "if he dares," while firmly refusing to travel to Moscow or Belarus. This escalated the diplomatic standoff and diminished prospects for a meeting in Russia or Belarus, pushing market prices for Kyiv and Belarus options down.
Putin skips scheduled Istanbul meeting with Zelensky, citing logistical issues
Turkey plunges to 7%22%
Early speculation that Istanbul could host direct talks collapsed after Putin failed to attend the scheduled May 15 meeting, prompting a sharp decline in the “Turkey” outcome and a rise in “No meeting”.
Kremlin insists Moscow only venue for Zelenskyy-Putin talks
Russia plunges to 1%43%
The Kremlin reiterated that it considers only Moscow as the appropriate venue for a meeting with Zelenskyy, rejecting other locations and emphasizing the need for specific agreements before a meeting, reinforcing diplomatic stalemate and lowering market confidence in a meeting outside Russia.
Kremlin sees no grounds for Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 surges to 75%16%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated Moscow does not see concrete steps from Kyiv to organize a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, emphasizing territorial issues as complex and requiring expert-level work. This dampened market expectations for a meeting soon, increasing the 'No meeting before 2027' price.
Kremlin insists Moscow only venue for Zelenskyy-Putin talks
Russia plunges to 8%36%
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia considers only Moscow as the location for a meeting with Zelenskyy, rejecting other venues. This hardened stance contributed to market declines in the likelihood of meetings outside Russia, particularly Kyiv or Belarus.
US, Russia and Ukraine to hold trilateral talks in UAE, Zelenskyy says
No meeting before 2027 surges to 79%20%
Zelenskyy announced trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US to be held in the UAE, signaling a diplomatic push but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. This news caused a sharp drop in the Qatar/UAE meeting probability and increased the likelihood of no meeting before 2027.
Trump announces potential trilateral summit with Putin and Zelenskyy
Trump signaled interest in a three-way meeting between Russia, Ukraine, and the US, boosting hopes for direct negotiations and influencing market expectations for a meeting location.
Kremlin says no grounds for a Zelensky‑Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 drops to 59%5%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia sees no grounds for a Zelensky‑Putin meeting, stating that Kyiv has made no concrete steps. The market interpreted this as a strong signal that a meeting was unlikely, pushing the “No meeting before 2027” probability up sharply.
Talks hint at possible Abu Dhabi trilateral summit
Early‑month speculation that a trilateral summit could be hosted in the Gulf (Abu Dhabi) led to a brief spike in the Qatar/UAE outcome (price at 49 % on 2025‑11‑06) before the prospect faded as other venues were discussed.
Zelenskyy announces trilateral talks with Russia and US in UAE
Qatar / UAE plunges to 3%46%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the United States would be held in the United Arab Emirates, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. This announcement initially affected market expectations for a meeting in UAE/Qatar and related locations.
Kremlin insists Zelenskyy must come to Moscow for talks
Russia plunges to 8%36%
Russian officials, including Dmitry Peskov, reiterated that Moscow is the only acceptable venue for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, rejecting other locations. Zelenskyy publicly refused to meet in Moscow or Belarus, sharply reducing market confidence in meetings in Russia or Belarus and increasing "No meeting before 2027" odds.
US President Trump proposes trilateral meeting with Zelenskyy and Putin
Trump expressed willingness to host a trilateral meeting and provide security guarantees to Ukraine, raising initial market interest in a US-hosted meeting. However, skepticism remained due to ongoing conflict and negotiation challenges.
US Special Envoy says Zelenskyy-Putin meeting possible within weeks
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff stated that a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin could happen within three weeks, possibly including US President Trump, raising market hopes for a near-term summit and causing some price fluctuations in related outcomes.
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