Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by a sharp energy price surge, combined with core readings near 2.8% and a resilient labor market at 4.3% unemployment, has driven trader consensus toward zero federal funds rate cuts for the full year, with the 68.7% implied probability on that outcome reflecting sustained restrictive policy at the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Recent broker forecasts and market pricing have shifted markedly hawkish from earlier 2026 expectations of modest easing, as incoming data underscore persistent price pressures over growth concerns. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting with updated projections represent the next key catalysts that could influence any modest revisions to the rate path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0（0 基点） 68.7%
1 (25 个基点) 19%
2（50个基点） 7%
3（75 个基点） 2.9%
$31,304,214 交易量
$31,304,214 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
69%
1 (25 个基点)
19%
2（50个基点）
7%
3（75 个基点）
3%
4（100 基点）
2%
5（125个基点）
1%
6（150个基点）
<1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
<1%
8（200 个基点）
<1%
9（225 个基点）
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
<1%
0（0 基点） 68.7%
1 (25 个基点) 19%
2（50个基点） 7%
3（75 个基点） 2.9%
$31,304,214 交易量
$31,304,214 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
$4,591,537 交易量
69%
1 (25 个基点)
$1,327,873 交易量
19%
2（50个基点）
$1,330,380 交易量
7%
3（75 个基点）
$1,211,611 交易量
3%
4（100 基点）
$1,336,564 交易量
2%
5（125个基点）
$1,558,851 交易量
1%
6（150个基点）
$2,760,595 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
$2,194,567 交易量
<1%
8（200 个基点）
$2,040,574 交易量
<1%
9（225 个基点）
$3,049,227 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
$3,667,125 交易量
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$3,671,290 交易量
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
$2,565,309 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by a sharp energy price surge, combined with core readings near 2.8% and a resilient labor market at 4.3% unemployment, has driven trader consensus toward zero federal funds rate cuts for the full year, with the 68.7% implied probability on that outcome reflecting sustained restrictive policy at the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Recent broker forecasts and market pricing have shifted markedly hawkish from earlier 2026 expectations of modest easing, as incoming data underscore persistent price pressures over growth concerns. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting with updated projections represent the next key catalysts that could influence any modest revisions to the rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市场开放时间： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$31,304,214结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by a sharp energy price surge, combined with core readings near 2.8% and a resilient labor market at 4.3% unemployment, has driven trader consensus toward zero federal funds rate cuts for the full year, with the 68.7% implied probability on that outcome reflecting sustained restrictive policy at the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Recent broker forecasts and market pricing have shifted markedly hawkish from earlier 2026 expectations of modest easing, as incoming data underscore persistent price pressures over growth concerns. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting with updated projections represent the next key catalysts that could influence any modest revisions to the rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$31,304,214结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by a sharp energy price surge, combined with core readings near 2.8% and a resilient labor market at 4.3% unemployment, has driven trader consensus toward zero federal funds rate cuts for the full year, with the 68.7% implied probability on that outcome reflecting sustained restrictive policy at the current 3.50-3.75% target range. Recent broker forecasts and market pricing have shifted markedly hawkish from earlier 2026 expectations of modest easing, as incoming data underscore persistent price pressures over growth concerns. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting with updated projections represent the next key catalysts that could influence any modest revisions to the rate path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题