Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023, fueled by a 17.9% energy price surge amid geopolitical tensions—has reinforced trader expectations for a restrictive policy stance through year-end, positioning zero rate cuts as the dominant outcome with 68.7% implied probability. Core inflation near 2.8% and a stable 4.3% unemployment rate further support the view that the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% remains appropriately tight, consistent with recent broker forecasts of no easing for the balance of 2026. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting represent near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds if disinflation accelerates or labor conditions weaken materially.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0（0 基点） 68.7%
1 (25 个基点) 19%
2（50个基点） 7%
3（75 个基点） 2.9%
$31,295,143 交易量
$31,295,143 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
69%
1 (25 个基点)
19%
2（50个基点）
7%
3（75 个基点）
3%
4（100 基点）
2%
5（125个基点）
1%
6（150个基点）
<1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
<1%
8（200 个基点）
<1%
9（225 个基点）
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
<1%
0（0 基点） 68.7%
1 (25 个基点) 19%
2（50个基点） 7%
3（75 个基点） 2.9%
$31,295,143 交易量
$31,295,143 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
$4,591,205 交易量
69%
1 (25 个基点)
$1,327,851 交易量
19%
2（50个基点）
$1,330,211 交易量
7%
3（75 个基点）
$1,211,546 交易量
3%
4（100 基点）
$1,336,364 交易量
2%
5（125个基点）
$1,558,596 交易量
1%
6（150个基点）
$2,760,010 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
$2,194,137 交易量
<1%
8（200 个基点）
$2,040,303 交易量
<1%
9（225 个基点）
$3,049,174 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
$3,662,788 交易量
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$3,669,605 交易量
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
$2,564,593 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023, fueled by a 17.9% energy price surge amid geopolitical tensions—has reinforced trader expectations for a restrictive policy stance through year-end, positioning zero rate cuts as the dominant outcome with 68.7% implied probability. Core inflation near 2.8% and a stable 4.3% unemployment rate further support the view that the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% remains appropriately tight, consistent with recent broker forecasts of no easing for the balance of 2026. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting represent near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds if disinflation accelerates or labor conditions weaken materially.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市场开放时间： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$31,295,143结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023, fueled by a 17.9% energy price surge amid geopolitical tensions—has reinforced trader expectations for a restrictive policy stance through year-end, positioning zero rate cuts as the dominant outcome with 68.7% implied probability. Core inflation near 2.8% and a stable 4.3% unemployment rate further support the view that the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% remains appropriately tight, consistent with recent broker forecasts of no easing for the balance of 2026. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting represent near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds if disinflation accelerates or labor conditions weaken materially.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$31,295,143结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023, fueled by a 17.9% energy price surge amid geopolitical tensions—has reinforced trader expectations for a restrictive policy stance through year-end, positioning zero rate cuts as the dominant outcome with 68.7% implied probability. Core inflation near 2.8% and a stable 4.3% unemployment rate further support the view that the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% remains appropriately tight, consistent with recent broker forecasts of no easing for the balance of 2026. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting represent near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds if disinflation accelerates or labor conditions weaken materially.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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