Ongoing diplomatic engagement under the Trump administration, including multiple rounds of Oman- and Pakistan-mediated talks since April 2025 and a May 2026 tentative memorandum extending the post-strike ceasefire while launching a 60-day negotiation window on Iran's nuclear program, supports the 67% trader consensus on a deal before 2027. Progress on sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and stockpile limits has advanced framework discussions, though core gaps persist over uranium enrichment levels, facility dismantling, and verification. Recent Iranian statements accepting civilian nuclear parameters alongside U.S. insistence on verifiable curbs have sustained momentum without resolution, consistent with historical patterns of extended but ultimately productive negotiations in similar high-stakes talks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$1,682,305 交易量
$1,682,305 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$1,682,305 交易量
$1,682,305 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing diplomatic engagement under the Trump administration, including multiple rounds of Oman- and Pakistan-mediated talks since April 2025 and a May 2026 tentative memorandum extending the post-strike ceasefire while launching a 60-day negotiation window on Iran's nuclear program, supports the 67% trader consensus on a deal before 2027. Progress on sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and stockpile limits has advanced framework discussions, though core gaps persist over uranium enrichment levels, facility dismantling, and verification. Recent Iranian statements accepting civilian nuclear parameters alongside U.S. insistence on verifiable curbs have sustained momentum without resolution, consistent with historical patterns of extended but ultimately productive negotiations in similar high-stakes talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
交易量
$1,682,305结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing diplomatic engagement under the Trump administration, including multiple rounds of Oman- and Pakistan-mediated talks since April 2025 and a May 2026 tentative memorandum extending the post-strike ceasefire while launching a 60-day negotiation window on Iran's nuclear program, supports the 67% trader consensus on a deal before 2027. Progress on sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and stockpile limits has advanced framework discussions, though core gaps persist over uranium enrichment levels, facility dismantling, and verification. Recent Iranian statements accepting civilian nuclear parameters alongside U.S. insistence on verifiable curbs have sustained momentum without resolution, consistent with historical patterns of extended but ultimately productive negotiations in similar high-stakes talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$1,682,308结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic engagement under the Trump administration, including multiple rounds of Oman- and Pakistan-mediated talks since April 2025 and a May 2026 tentative memorandum extending the post-strike ceasefire while launching a 60-day negotiation window on Iran's nuclear program, supports the 67% trader consensus on a deal before 2027. Progress on sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and stockpile limits has advanced framework discussions, though core gaps persist over uranium enrichment levels, facility dismantling, and verification. Recent Iranian statements accepting civilian nuclear parameters alongside U.S. insistence on verifiable curbs have sustained momentum without resolution, consistent with historical patterns of extended but ultimately productive negotiations in similar high-stakes talks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题