Recent observational data from Copernicus and other monitoring agencies show April and March 2026 global surface temperatures at 1.48–1.51°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, with February near 1.18°C above the 20th-century average. These readings, combined with the rapid transition toward El Niño conditions now favored at over 80% probability for May–July 2026 by NOAA and IRI forecasts, anchor trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C band for May. Weakening La Niña influences earlier in the year produced relatively cooler early-2026 readings compared with 2024 peaks, while ongoing greenhouse-gas forcing and sea-surface temperature trends support values clustered near 1.1–1.2°C rather than extremes. Updated model runs and the upcoming final Copernicus or NOAA May dataset release in early June represent the next key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities within this narrow window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 79%
<1.10ºC 18%
1.15–1.19ºC 2.7%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$152,558 交易量
$152,558 交易量
2026-06-10
<1.10ºC
18%
1.10–1.14ºC
79%
1.15–1.19ºC
3%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 79%
<1.10ºC 18%
1.15–1.19ºC 2.7%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$152,558 交易量
$152,558 交易量
2026-06-10
<1.10ºC
$48,917 交易量
18%
1.10–1.14ºC
$20,540 交易量
79%
1.15–1.19ºC
$24,411 交易量
3%
1.20–1.24ºC
$19,325 交易量
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$17,655 交易量
<1%
>1.29ºC
$21,709 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from Copernicus and other monitoring agencies show April and March 2026 global surface temperatures at 1.48–1.51°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, with February near 1.18°C above the 20th-century average. These readings, combined with the rapid transition toward El Niño conditions now favored at over 80% probability for May–July 2026 by NOAA and IRI forecasts, anchor trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C band for May. Weakening La Niña influences earlier in the year produced relatively cooler early-2026 readings compared with 2024 peaks, while ongoing greenhouse-gas forcing and sea-surface temperature trends support values clustered near 1.1–1.2°C rather than extremes. Updated model runs and the upcoming final Copernicus or NOAA May dataset release in early June represent the next key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities within this narrow window.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
交易量
$152,558结束日期
2026-06-10市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from Copernicus and other monitoring agencies show April and March 2026 global surface temperatures at 1.48–1.51°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, with February near 1.18°C above the 20th-century average. These readings, combined with the rapid transition toward El Niño conditions now favored at over 80% probability for May–July 2026 by NOAA and IRI forecasts, anchor trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C band for May. Weakening La Niña influences earlier in the year produced relatively cooler early-2026 readings compared with 2024 peaks, while ongoing greenhouse-gas forcing and sea-surface temperature trends support values clustered near 1.1–1.2°C rather than extremes. Updated model runs and the upcoming final Copernicus or NOAA May dataset release in early June represent the next key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities within this narrow window.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$152,558结束日期
2026-06-10市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from Copernicus and other monitoring agencies show April and March 2026 global surface temperatures at 1.48–1.51°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, with February near 1.18°C above the 20th-century average. These readings, combined with the rapid transition toward El Niño conditions now favored at over 80% probability for May–July 2026 by NOAA and IRI forecasts, anchor trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C band for May. Weakening La Niña influences earlier in the year produced relatively cooler early-2026 readings compared with 2024 peaks, while ongoing greenhouse-gas forcing and sea-surface temperature trends support values clustered near 1.1–1.2°C rather than extremes. Updated model runs and the upcoming final Copernicus or NOAA May dataset release in early June represent the next key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities within this narrow window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题