Current forecasts from regional meteorological models position Chongqing’s June 2 peak temperature near 27–28°C, aligning with the market’s strongest implied probabilities. Early June marks the transition into the subtropical monsoon regime, where average daily highs rise from the mid-20s in late May toward 29–30°C by mid-month; persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 80%, and scattered light precipitation are limiting daytime heating and suppressing the urban heat-island effect within the Sichuan Basin. Official guidance shows only modest model spread around these values, with no strong high-pressure ridge or clear-sky conditions expected to push readings into the low 30s. Traders are therefore assigning the bulk of probability mass to the narrow 27–28°C band that best matches both climatological normals and the latest short-range guidance.