Current short-range weather models indicate a highest temperature near 31–32°C in Chongqing on June 4, with limited spread among leading ensemble runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration. This tight clustering of probabilities arises from typical early-June subtropical conditions featuring high humidity, variable cloud cover, and the urban heat-island effect that can add 1–2°C to peak readings. Minor differences between 31°C and 32°C outcomes hinge on the exact timing of any afternoon convection or slight shifts in steering flow, while lower or higher thresholds remain less likely given the absence of strong synoptic forcing or extreme heat advection in the latest guidance. Updated model runs and official local forecasts expected in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest resolution signals for traders.