Tarcísio de Freitas maintains an 83% implied probability as the São Paulo governor election winner on October 4, 2026, reflecting consistent polling leads as the incumbent Republicanos candidate with approval ratings above 60%. Recent surveys from Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest show him at 47% in first-round scenarios against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 33%, with no other contender reaching double digits. Kim Kataguiri and lower-polling figures such as Márcio França and Erika Hilton trail due to limited name recognition and weaker organizational support in the state. Traders price in the incumbent’s structural advantages in a race where second-round simulations also favor de Freitas by wide margins, though the October first-round vote and any late alliance shifts remain key variables.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Tarcísio de Freitas 83%
金·卡塔古里 9.1%
Fernando Haddad 5.8%
Erika Hilton 1.7%
$54,928 交易量
$54,928 交易量
2026-10-04
Tarcísio de Freitas
83%
金·卡塔古里
9%
Fernando Haddad
6%
Erika Hilton
2%
Márcio França
2%
Tarcísio de Freitas 83%
金·卡塔古里 9.1%
Fernando Haddad 5.8%
Erika Hilton 1.7%
$54,928 交易量
$54,928 交易量
2026-10-04
Tarcísio de Freitas
$17,111 交易量
83%
金·卡塔古里
$8,482 交易量
9%
Fernando Haddad
$18,900 交易量
6%
Erika Hilton
$5,516 交易量
2%
Márcio França
$4,920 交易量
2%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas maintains an 83% implied probability as the São Paulo governor election winner on October 4, 2026, reflecting consistent polling leads as the incumbent Republicanos candidate with approval ratings above 60%. Recent surveys from Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest show him at 47% in first-round scenarios against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 33%, with no other contender reaching double digits. Kim Kataguiri and lower-polling figures such as Márcio França and Erika Hilton trail due to limited name recognition and weaker organizational support in the state. Traders price in the incumbent’s structural advantages in a race where second-round simulations also favor de Freitas by wide margins, though the October first-round vote and any late alliance shifts remain key variables.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
交易量
$54,928结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas maintains an 83% implied probability as the São Paulo governor election winner on October 4, 2026, reflecting consistent polling leads as the incumbent Republicanos candidate with approval ratings above 60%. Recent surveys from Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest show him at 47% in first-round scenarios against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 33%, with no other contender reaching double digits. Kim Kataguiri and lower-polling figures such as Márcio França and Erika Hilton trail due to limited name recognition and weaker organizational support in the state. Traders price in the incumbent’s structural advantages in a race where second-round simulations also favor de Freitas by wide margins, though the October first-round vote and any late alliance shifts remain key variables.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$54,928结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas maintains an 83% implied probability as the São Paulo governor election winner on October 4, 2026, reflecting consistent polling leads as the incumbent Republicanos candidate with approval ratings above 60%. Recent surveys from Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest show him at 47% in first-round scenarios against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 33%, with no other contender reaching double digits. Kim Kataguiri and lower-polling figures such as Márcio França and Erika Hilton trail due to limited name recognition and weaker organizational support in the state. Traders price in the incumbent’s structural advantages in a race where second-round simulations also favor de Freitas by wide margins, though the October first-round vote and any late alliance shifts remain key variables.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题