Trader consensus on a low likelihood of North Korean invasion before 2027 reflects Pyongyang’s policy pivot to treating South Korea as a permanently hostile neighboring state, formalized in 2026 constitutional revisions that abandoned reunification goals. Recent missile tests, border fortification orders from Kim Jong Un explicitly framed as deterring conflict, and continued prioritization of ties with Russia and China over southern engagement have shown no signs of offensive troop concentrations or invasion preparations. Sustained U.S.-South Korea alliance commitments, Seoul’s rising defense spending, and the Lee administration’s de-escalation efforts further elevate perceived costs of large-scale action. Residual uncertainty stems from potential miscalculation during provocations or shifts in U.S. regional posture that could alter deterrence calculations within the resolution window.