Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) leads trader pricing in the Bahia gubernatorial race due to his structural position as sitting governor with mid-to-high 50s approval ratings and established PT municipal networks across the state. The contest is a direct 2022 rematch against ACM Neto (União Brasil), whose recent alignment with right-wing blocs after União Brasil’s 2025 rupture with the federal government has sharpened divisions but not shifted the overall consensus. April-May 2026 surveys show technical ties or narrow margins in first-round and runoff scenarios, underscoring the competitive dynamics while highlighting the incumbent’s edge in a polarized electorate ahead of the October 4 vote. Minor candidates remain marginal in both polling and market positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Jerônimo Rodrigues 62%
ACM Neto 37%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
João Roma <1%
$26,190 交易量
$26,190 交易量
2026-10-04
Jerônimo Rodrigues
62%
ACM Neto
37%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 62%
ACM Neto 37%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
João Roma <1%
$26,190 交易量
$26,190 交易量
2026-10-04
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$8,754 交易量
62%
ACM Neto
$6,975 交易量
37%
José Carlos Aleluia
$3,226 交易量
<1%
João Roma
$1,638 交易量
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$2,069 交易量
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,732 交易量
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,796 交易量
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) leads trader pricing in the Bahia gubernatorial race due to his structural position as sitting governor with mid-to-high 50s approval ratings and established PT municipal networks across the state. The contest is a direct 2022 rematch against ACM Neto (União Brasil), whose recent alignment with right-wing blocs after União Brasil’s 2025 rupture with the federal government has sharpened divisions but not shifted the overall consensus. April-May 2026 surveys show technical ties or narrow margins in first-round and runoff scenarios, underscoring the competitive dynamics while highlighting the incumbent’s edge in a polarized electorate ahead of the October 4 vote. Minor candidates remain marginal in both polling and market positioning.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
交易量
$26,190结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) leads trader pricing in the Bahia gubernatorial race due to his structural position as sitting governor with mid-to-high 50s approval ratings and established PT municipal networks across the state. The contest is a direct 2022 rematch against ACM Neto (União Brasil), whose recent alignment with right-wing blocs after União Brasil’s 2025 rupture with the federal government has sharpened divisions but not shifted the overall consensus. April-May 2026 surveys show technical ties or narrow margins in first-round and runoff scenarios, underscoring the competitive dynamics while highlighting the incumbent’s edge in a polarized electorate ahead of the October 4 vote. Minor candidates remain marginal in both polling and market positioning.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$26,190结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) leads trader pricing in the Bahia gubernatorial race due to his structural position as sitting governor with mid-to-high 50s approval ratings and established PT municipal networks across the state. The contest is a direct 2022 rematch against ACM Neto (União Brasil), whose recent alignment with right-wing blocs after União Brasil’s 2025 rupture with the federal government has sharpened divisions but not shifted the overall consensus. April-May 2026 surveys show technical ties or narrow margins in first-round and runoff scenarios, underscoring the competitive dynamics while highlighting the incumbent’s edge in a polarized electorate ahead of the October 4 vote. Minor candidates remain marginal in both polling and market positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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