Lula da Silva leads the 2026 Brazilian presidential race as the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking a fourth term, with trader consensus at 40.5% reflecting his edge in late-May first-round polling of 38-42%. Flávio Bolsonaro trails at 29% after a mid-May controversy involving alleged ties to a disgraced banker eroded his momentum, shifting from earlier runoff ties. Renan Santos holds 16.4% amid rising youth support via social media and anti-corruption positioning as a Mission Party alternative. Other contenders including governors Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado register lower shares consistent with narrower national backing ahead of the October 4 first round and possible runoff. Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible following his prior conviction.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于President Lula has cataract surgery in Brasília
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 41%3%
President Lula underwent cataract surgery in Brasília, a high‑profile health event that attracted extensive coverage. While the procedure itself was routine, the media attention reinforced his incumbency image, contributing to a modest rebound of his market price from 38 % on May 27 to 41 % on May 31.
Michelle Bolsonaro gains polling parity with Flávio Bolsonaro amid right-wing division
Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 2%1%
Recent polls showed Michelle Bolsonaro matching Flávio Bolsonaro's support in first and second-round scenarios against Lula, reflecting a split in the right-wing electorate and causing market adjustments.
Flávio Bolsonaro reshuffles campaign after poll slide amid scandal fallout
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 29%6%
Following a decline in polls linked to the Vorcaro scandal, Flávio Bolsonaro replaced his campaign communications director and sought to rebuild his campaign, reflecting internal party concerns about his viability.
Former President Jair Bolsonaro hospitalized briefly after prison fall
Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 25%18%
Jair Bolsonaro was granted a brief leave from prison to undergo medical tests after falling from his bed, raising concerns about his health and impacting his presidential election prospects. This event likely contributed to a drop in his market probability from 43% to 25%.
Michelle Bolsonaro’s social‑media video boosts her market visibility
Michelle Bolsonaro jumps to 5%5%
A short video of Michelle Bolsonaro praising her husband’s political legacy circulated on social media, causing a brief uptick in her market price from 0 % to 5 % the same day before returning to 1 % the following week. The move likely reflects temporary media attention rather than substantive electoral impact.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s support drops sharply amid film funding scandal scrutiny
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 31%13%
Following increased scrutiny over a scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro’s attempt to secure funding for a film about his father, his market support dropped significantly, reflecting voter concerns about transparency and ethics.
Film funding scandal emerges involving Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 40%4%
Leaked messages revealed Flávio Bolsonaro's attempts to secure funding for a film about his father, sparking calls for investigation and adding controversy to his campaign. Despite this, his support remained resilient, reflecting the polarized political environment.
Renan Santos surges in engagement and polling after Flávio Bolsonaro audio scandal
Renan Santos jumps to 16%10%
Following leaked audios implicating Flávio Bolsonaro in a funding scandal, Renan Santos gained significant traction on social media and in polls, boosting his market price as a rising right-wing alternative candidate.
Renan Santos gains after release of Flávio Bolsonaro audio leak
Renan Santos jumps to 16%10%
Audio recordings of Flávio Bolsonaro asking Vorcaro for money were broadcast by Investidor10, which highlighted Renan Santos’ criticism of the “rabo preso” claim and positioned him as the anti‑corruption alternative. Renan’s market share jumped from 6 % to 10 % on May 17 and to 13 % on May 24, ending the period at 16 %.
Poll shows Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro after report linking Bolsonaro to disgraced banker
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 41%2%
An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff following revelations of Flávio's ties to a disgraced banker, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status and impacting market prices.
Poll shows Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro after report linking Bolsonaro to disgraced banker
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 41%3%
An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in both first-round and runoff scenarios following reports linking Flávio to a disgraced banker, reinforcing Lula's position and causing a dip in Flávio's market price.
Electoral Authority poll lifts Renan Santos to double‑digit support in Minas Gerais
Renan Santos rises to 13%4%
A regional poll released by the Superior Electoral Court showed Renan Santos jumping from 7 % to 9 % in Minas Gerais, sparking a surge to 13 % in the market as he emerged as a dark‑horse candidate.
Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41‑41 %
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 45%7%
Datafolha released a poll showing Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41 % each. The surprising strength of Lula’s lead caused his market price to climb from 38 % to 45 % over the next few days before it later slipped back, reflecting the market’s reaction to the narrowing gap.
Judge orders house arrest for 10 convicted in Bolsonaro coup plot
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%
A Brazilian judge issued house arrest orders for 10 people convicted in the Bolsonaro coup plot, signaling ongoing legal developments that kept Bolsonaro's political influence under scrutiny and affected market sentiment.
Poll shows Lula and Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 29%3%
A poll released in mid-May 2026 showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro neck and neck, reflecting the narrowing gap and intense competition leading up to the October election, influencing market prices to converge.
PGR files defamation charge against Romeu Zema over STF satire videos
Romeu Zema rises to 5%2%
The Federal Prosecutor’s Office (PGR) filed a criminal defamation complaint against former Minas governor Romeu Zema for videos satirising Supreme Court ministers. Media coverage of the case raised Zema’s profile, lifting his market price from 3 % to 5 % before settling back at 3 % as the story faded.
Flávio Bolsonaro works to contain fallout from funding scandal
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 28%2%
Following leaked audio revelations, Flávio Bolsonaro met with campaign leadership to manage damage and maintain his candidacy, while some party members considered Michelle Bolsonaro as a fallback option, reflecting internal right-wing tensions.
Lula's support dips to 37% amid rising competition
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 37%3%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's market price dropped to a low of 37% on May 5, 2026, reflecting increased competition and possible voter shifts towards other candidates like Flávio Bolsonaro.
Leaked audio reveals Flávio Bolsonaro sought funds for film about Jair Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 28%5%
An audio recording leaked showing Flávio Bolsonaro requesting money from former banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father, causing political tension and prompting Flávio to work on damage control. This scandal contributed to a decline in his market price and raised speculation about Michelle Bolsonaro as a fallback candidate.
Poll shows Lula and Bolsonaro tied amid film funding scandal for Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 29%15%
A Datafolha poll reaffirmed the tight race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, but Bolsonaro faced scrutiny over a film funding scandal involving alleged fraud, which introduced new uncertainty and may have contributed to his price decline in late May.
Scandal emerges linking Flávio Bolsonaro to film financing controversy
Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 29%16%
Leaked WhatsApp messages revealed Flávio Bolsonaro's discussions with a banker imprisoned for fraud regarding financing a film about his father. This scandal damaged Bolsonaro's campaign credibility and contributed to a decline in his market price from 45% to 29%.
Poll shows Lula and Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 40%1%
A Datafolha poll reaffirmed the tight race with Lula and Bolsonaro tied, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and intense competition. This poll influenced market prices, with fluctuations for both candidates as the election approached.
Audio scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro causes drop in his market support
Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 28%16%
The release of audio recordings in which Flávio Bolsonaro allegedly solicited funds from a disgraced banker led to a sharp decline in his market price, benefiting right-wing alternatives like Romeu Zema and Renan Santos.
Leaked audio reveals Flávio Bolsonaro sought funds from disgraced banker
Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 28%15%
Audio and messages revealed Flávio Bolsonaro negotiated with banker Daniel Vorcaro for millions to finance a film about Jair Bolsonaro, causing a sharp drop in Flávio's market support due to scandal and legal scrutiny.
Flávio Bolsonaro caught in R$ 134 million film‑funding audio scandal
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%10%
The Intercept Brasil published audio recordings showing Flávio Bolsonaro requesting R$ 134 million from banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father. The scandal prompted a sharp drop in Flávio’s market price from 43 % to 33 % that week, while other candidates gained as voters shifted away from the candidate embroiled in corruption allegations.
Flávio Bolsonaro linked to R$134 million film‑funding scandal
Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 28%16%
The Intercept Brasil published leaked WhatsApp messages showing Flávio Bolsonaro asking disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro for R$134 million to fund a film about his father. The expose sparked a media firestorm and a Datafolha poll the next day showed Lula pulling ahead of Flávio, driving Flávio’s market price down from a recent high of 44 % to 28 % by the end of May.
Poll shows Lula and Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election
A Datafolha poll showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 45% each in a head-to-head contest, indicating a highly competitive race. This poll was conducted before a scandal involving Bolsonaro's campaign emerged, reflecting the tight race dynamics.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 41%2%
A Datafolha poll showed incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro neck and neck ahead of the October election, reflecting a tightening race and explaining the market price convergence between the two candidates.
Scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro and banker Daniel Vorcaro emerges
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%
Revelations about Flávio Bolsonaro's request for funds from banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father caused a political scandal, leading to voter backlash and a decline in his market price from 45% to 33%.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s price drops 10 points after controversial interview
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%
An interview in which Flávio made inflammatory remarks led to a rapid decline from 45 % to 33 %, reflecting voter backlash.
Scandal emerges linking Flávio Bolsonaro to disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 37%6%
Reports revealed that Flávio Bolsonaro negotiated funding with Daniel Vorcaro, a banker under investigation for fraud, damaging his campaign and causing a drop in his polling and market support.
President Lula criticizes COVID-19 denialism during National Victims Day ceremony
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 45%5%
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva publicly criticized the previous Bolsonaro administration's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, reinforcing his campaign narrative and impacting voter sentiment ahead of the election.
Analysis highlights Brazil's polarized 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
An opinion piece emphasized the deep polarization in Brazil's 2026 election, with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro as main contenders, reflecting the political landscape that influenced market perceptions and candidate support.
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 34%10%
Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered the transfer of Jair Bolsonaro to a larger prison cell with better conditions, which may affect his health and political influence. This event followed his recent medical issues and was part of ongoing legal proceedings.
Flávio Bolsonaro peaks at 45% market support
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 45%5%
Flávio Bolsonaro's market price peaked at 45% on May 7, 2026, indicating a significant surge in his perceived chances of winning the presidency during this period.
Brazil Supreme Court orders Bolsonaro's transfer to larger prison cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 38%2%
The Supreme Court ordered Jair Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger cell with better conditions, reflecting ongoing judicial management of his incarceration and health, which maintained political uncertainty around Bolsonaro's influence and his son's campaign.
Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery while in prison
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 29%5%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery during his prison sentence, raising concerns about his health and impacting perceptions of his political viability and that of his son Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign.
Supreme Court orders probe into Flávio Bolsonaro for alleged defamatory posts
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 39%1%
Brazil’s Supreme Court authorized an investigation into Flávio Bolsonaro for defamatory statements against Lula, increasing political tensions and impacting market perceptions of Bolsonaro's candidacy.
Bolsonaro leaves house arrest for shoulder surgery, wife says
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 29%5%
Jair Bolsonaro underwent shoulder surgery under house‑arrest conditions; his wife Michelle announced the procedure. The health episode dampened Bolsonaro‑related optimism, causing Flávio’s price to fall from the mid‑30s to the high‑20s.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad rises to 4%1%
Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, slightly increasing his political visibility and market support ahead of the presidential election.
Brazilian Congress overrides Lula's veto, enabling sentence reduction for Jair Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 38%19%
The Brazilian Congress overrode President Lula's veto on a law reducing prison sentences for sedition, benefiting former President Jair Bolsonaro and energizing Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign, which was reflected in his rising market support.
Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in Brasília hospital
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 24%6%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving a 27-year prison sentence, highlighting his ongoing health issues and legal troubles, which influenced market perceptions of his political future and indirectly affected his son Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy.
Lula plans Supreme Court nomination after historic defeat, sources say
Lula is expected to run for his fourth non-consecutive term after being the first Brazilian leader in 132 years to have a top court nominee rejected by Congress.
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Datafolha runoff poll for first time
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 31%5%
A Datafolha poll showed Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead of Lula in a runoff simulation for the first time, signaling a shift in the race and causing market volatility with Flávio's price rising and Lula's declining.
Polls show high rejection rates for Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
Polls revealed both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro faced high and stable rejection rates, limiting their growth potential and indicating a polarized electorate. This dynamic influenced market perceptions of the election's competitiveness and candidate ceilings.
Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 41%2%
A Supreme Court order moved Bolsonaro to a larger cell with an outdoor area, viewed as a concession to his health demands. The news boosted Flávio Bolsonaro’s odds (from 39 % to 41 %) as it suggested the family’s legal team was gaining small victories, while Lula’s price slipped marginally.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad rules out 2026 presidential run
Fernando Haddad dips to 2%3%
Haddad publicly announced he would not run for president in 2026, focusing instead on a state‑level project. The clarification caused his market price to fall from 5 % to 2 % over the next week, as traders reassessed his electoral relevance.
Romeu Zema faces potential legal action amid criticism of Supreme Court
Romeu Zema rises to 6%4%
Romeu Zema intensified criticism of Brazil's Supreme Court, leading to his inclusion in an investigation on fake news and attacks on democratic institutions. This institutional tension raised his profile but also political risks, reflected in market fluctuations.
Lula’s poll share hits low of 35 % amid economic slowdown
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 35%5%
A slowdown in Brazil’s GDP growth lowered voter confidence in Lula, driving his price to a new trough.
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 40%1%
The Supreme Court ordered Jair Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger prison cell with better conditions, which was seen as a response to his health and legal situation, affecting market perceptions of his political future.
Brazil government proposes bill to offset fuel tax cuts amid oil price surge
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 39%4%
The government unveiled a bill to use additional revenue from higher oil prices to offset fuel tax cuts, aiming to protect consumers amid the Middle East conflict. This economic challenge affected Lula's standing and contributed to his market price decline.
Governor Zema unveils new economic‑development plan ahead of presidential race
Romeu Zema rises to 5%4%
Zema’s campaign announced a new economic‑development platform, which briefly lifted his market share from 1 % to 5 % while Caiado’s share fell from 5 % to 2 % as voters re‑allocated support.
Lula da Silva advocates for Brazilian companies to use Portugal as EU entry point
During an official visit to Portugal, Lula promoted economic ties and encouraged Brazilian companies to operate in Portugal as a gateway to the EU, highlighting his international economic strategy and potentially influencing market perceptions of his leadership.
Lula’s approval dips after controversial Amazon mining concessions
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 40%12%
Environmental controversy hurt Lula’s standing, contributing to a decline from 52 % to 40 % in his market price.
Brazil’s federal police open probe into Flávio Bolsonaro for defamatory statements
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 39%1%
Brazil’s Supreme Court authorized an investigation into whether Flávio Bolsonaro made defamatory statements about Lula, increasing scrutiny on Bolsonaro and potentially damaging his campaign. This legal pressure contributed to volatility and a decline in Bolsonaro's market price.
Brazil’s police open a probe into presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 24%5%
The Supreme Court authorized a Federal Police probe into alleged defamatory statements by Flávio Bolsonaro. The legal pressure caused his market price to retreat from the low‑30s to the high‑20s.
PGR files calumny charges against Romeu Zema for accusations against STF minister
Romeu Zema rises to 2%1%
The Prosecutor General of the Republic filed charges against Romeu Zema for calumny against Supreme Court minister Gilmar Mendes, following Zema's critical social media posts, increasing legal pressure and political tension around his candidacy.
Brazil’s Supreme Court authorizes federal police probe into Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 27%3%
Brazil’s Supreme Court allowed federal police to investigate whether Flávio Bolsonaro made defamatory statements about Lula. This legal scrutiny added pressure on Bolsonaro's campaign and influenced market perceptions, contributing to volatility in his support.
Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro surpasses Lula numerically in second round for first time
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%4%
A poll indicated that Flávio Bolsonaro overtook Lula numerically in a hypothetical second-round runoff, signaling increased competitiveness and causing market adjustments reflecting uncertainty about the election outcome.
CNT/MDA poll shows Lula narrowly ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 43%3%
A poll released on April 14, 2026, showed Lula narrowly leading Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second round, causing minor fluctuations in market prices for both candidates.
Camilo Santana discusses expanded social‑program agenda
Santana’s brief press conference on social‑programs modestly raised his visibility, nudging his market price from 1 % to 1 % (stable) while keeping the field’s overall distribution intact.
Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in runoff
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 39%4%
A Datafolha poll showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied within the margin of error in a potential runoff, reflecting a highly competitive race and influencing market prices accordingly.
Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 40%2%
An April 11, 2026 Datafolha poll showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied within the margin of error in a potential runoff, reflecting a highly competitive race and influencing market prices accordingly.
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 40%1%
The Supreme Court ordered Jair Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger cell with better conditions, reflecting ongoing legal and health considerations that kept Bolsonaro in the political spotlight but did not improve his electoral prospects.
Judge orders house arrest for ten convicted Bolsonaro allies
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 35%3%
A judge ordered house arrest for ten Bolsonaro‑aligned convicts involved in the 2025 coup‑plot, signalling a crackdown on the Bolsonaro network. The decision was reported on 9 April and coincided with a short‑term dip in Flávio’s price from 38 % to 35 %, before his recovery later in the month.
Lula announces government bill to cut working hours without reducing salaries
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 46%2%
President Lula announced a legislative proposal to reduce working hours without salary cuts, a key campaign plank aimed at appealing to workers ahead of the October election. This policy move was intended to bolster Lula's support among labor groups and influenced market perceptions of his campaign strength.
Brazil proposes bill to cut working hours without reducing salaries
Lula announced a key policy proposal to reduce working hours while maintaining salaries, reinforcing his platform and potentially appealing to voters concerned about labor conditions.
Bolsonaro briefly hospitalized after falling in prison
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 40%4%
Bolsonaro was temporarily hospitalized for medical tests after a fall in prison, raising concerns about his health and affecting market perceptions of his and his son’s candidacies.
São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas formally endorses Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 44%2%
Tarcísio de Freitas, São Paulo's popular former governor, formally endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro, providing him with institutional infrastructure and helping close a 23-point runoff deficit against Lula.
Fernando Haddad resigns as Finance Minister to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad rises to 4%1%
Fernando Haddad officially stepped down as Finance Minister to launch his campaign for governor of São Paulo, a move seen as positioning him for future political influence and affecting his presidential prospects.
Lula confirms Alckmin as running mate for 2026 election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 52%1%
Lula announced Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate, reinforcing his campaign and boosting his market position as he sought a fourth term.
Brazil Supreme Court orders Bolsonaro’s transfer to larger prison cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 44%4%
The Supreme Court moved Bolsonaro to a more comfortable prison cell with outdoor access, addressing his health and detention conditions, which influenced market views on his ongoing political influence.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in simulated runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 26%9%
A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro tied in a simulated second-round runoff, indicating a highly competitive race and causing market adjustments reflecting increased uncertainty.
Caiado confirmed as PSD’s presidential candidate
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 6%1%
Caiado officially switched to the PSD and was confirmed as its presidential candidate, causing a modest rise in his market price from 5 % to 6 % before settling at 1 % as the race tightened.
Fernando Haddad resigns as finance minister to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad rises to 3%1%
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigned to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, increasing his political profile and positioning him as a potential successor to Lula, slightly boosting his market price.
Latest poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in simulated runoff
A Nexus poll for BTG Pactual showed the tightest race yet with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 46% each in a simulated second round, indicating a highly competitive election and impacting market prices accordingly.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in tight race
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 44%15%
A Nexus poll for BTG Pactual showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 46% each in a simulated second round, indicating a highly competitive race and causing market prices for Bolsonaro to peak at 44%.
Flávio Bolsonaro edges ahead of Lula in new poll
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 24%8%
A poll released in late March showed Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula da Silva for the first time in a second-round matchup, marking a significant shift in the race and causing Flávio's market price to rise sharply.
Social Democratic Party selects Ronaldo Caiado as presidential candidate
Ronaldo Caiado joined PSD and was confirmed as its presidential nominee, consolidating his position as a center-right alternative to Bolsonaro and Lula, which briefly increased his market support.
Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro edging ahead of Lula in run-off scenario
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 40%10%
An AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg News showed Flávio Bolsonaro slightly leading Lula in a run-off, reflecting his rising support and narrowing Lula's lead. This poll contributed to a rise in Bolsonaro's market price and a decline for Lula.
Datafolha poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro slightly ahead of Lula in runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 25%9%
Datafolha poll indicated Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula 46% to 45% in a runoff, marking the first time Bolsonaro numerically surpassed Lula, though within margin of error. This boosted Bolsonaro's market price and signaled a shift in voter sentiment.
Governor Romeu Zema resigns to launch presidential campaign
Romeu Zema rises to 3%2%
Zema announced his resignation as governor of Minas Gerais to run for president, clearing the legal hurdle for candidacy. The move lifted his visibility and helped his price rise from 1 % to 3 % by the end of March, as the market rewarded his entry into the race.
Romeu Zema resigns as Minas Gerais governor to run for president
Romeu Zema rises to 5%4%
Romeu Zema resigned as governor of Minas Gerais to pursue the presidency under the Novo party, representing a liberal-right alternative. This event marked his official entry into the presidential race, briefly boosting his market support.
Flávio Bolsonaro decries political persecution by Lula government
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 28%3%
Flávio Bolsonaro publicly accused the Lula administration of political persecution against conservatives, framing his campaign as a fight against lawfare and promising to restore constitutional norms, which energized his base and increased his market support.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad dips to 2%3%
Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, reducing his presidential election odds as he shifted focus to state politics.
Former President Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 17%5%
Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving his 27-year prison sentence, temporarily affecting his health and political activity. This event coincided with a temporary increase in attention to Bolsonaro's condition and his son Flávio's candidacy.
Former President Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery
Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 1%1%
Bolsonaro’s double‑hernia surgery, approved by Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, kept the ex‑president in the public eye and sparked sympathy for his family, lifting Michelle Bolsonaro’s market share from 0 % to 1 % and slightly hurting Flávio’s odds as focus shifted to personal health.
Lula cancels Chile inauguration trip amid Flávio Bolsonaro's attendance
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 44%2%
Lula withdrew from attending Chilean President José Antonio Kast's inauguration after it was revealed Flávio Bolsonaro would attend, reflecting political tensions and Lula's strategic avoidance of direct confrontation. This event underscored the rivalry and may have influenced market perceptions of the candidates' political positioning.
Lula withdraws from Chile inauguration amid Flávio Bolsonaro's presence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 45%8%
Lula canceled his trip to Chile's presidential inauguration after it emerged that Flávio Bolsonaro would attend, a politically sensitive move reflecting the rivalry and Lula's attempt to avoid direct confrontation. This event highlighted Bolsonaro's rising prominence and affected market perceptions.
Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 28%3%
Datafolha poll indicated Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro were statistically tied in a runoff scenario, reflecting the tightening race and contributing to market volatility and increased support for Bolsonaro.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% in runoff
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 44%2%
A Genial/Quaest poll showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% each in a potential runoff, confirming the tightness of the race and increasing market focus on the Bolsonaro challenge to Lula's incumbency.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% in runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 25%9%
A Genial/Quaest poll revealed a statistical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro at 41% each in a potential runoff, indicating a highly competitive race and boosting market interest in Bolsonaro's chances.
Genial/Quaest poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% in runoff
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 46%3%
A Genial/Quaest poll revealed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% each in a potential runoff, confirming the highly competitive nature of the race and influencing market prices accordingly.
Genial/Quaest poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% in runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 38%9%
A Genial/Quaest poll released in March showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% each in a potential runoff, confirming the tight race and contributing to market volatility and shifting probabilities between the two frontrunners.
Datafolha poll shows Lula’s lead tightening against Flávio
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 50%2%
Datafolha released a poll showing Lula’s first‑round lead narrowing, with Flávio gaining ground. The slide from 52 % to 50 % for Lula on 6 March coincided with a market dip, marking the beginning of a three‑point swing that continued through March.
Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro drawing level with Lula in potential runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 11%9%
An AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg News showed Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula virtually tied in a simulated second-round vote, with Bolsonaro gaining significant market support as the race tightened. This poll was the first to show parity, boosting Bolsonaro's price sharply.
AtlasIntel poll shows Bolsonaro and Lula tied in Brazil runoff simulation
A Bloomberg News poll found Bolsonaro at 46.3% versus Lula at 46.2% in a simulated runoff, the first time the younger Bolsonaro surpassed Lula numerically, signaling a potential close contest.
AtlasIntel poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro drawing level with Lula in potential runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 27%8%
An AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg News showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro virtually tied in a simulated second-round vote, reflecting a significant shift in voter sentiment and market expectations.
AtlasIntel poll shows Bolsonaro and Lula tied in Brazil runoff at 46.3% vs 46.2%
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 44%18%
A major poll showing the top two candidates tied in a simulated runoff for the October election caused significant market movement, with Bolsonaro's price rising sharply as he surpassed Lula numerically for the first time in a Datafolha poll.
Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison hospital
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 14%13%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro underwent surgery while serving his prison sentence, highlighting his health issues and impacting perceptions of his political viability and that of his son Flávio Bolsonaro.
Flávio Bolsonaro's support surges in polls
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 30%15%
Flávio Bolsonaro's market price rose sharply to 30% by late February 2026, reflecting increased public support and visibility in the presidential race.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in Brazil election runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 30%14%
An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in a potential runoff, reflecting a highly competitive race. This led to increased market support for Bolsonaro and a decline for Lula.
Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro drawing level with Lula in potential runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%3%
An AtlasIntel poll showed Flávio Bolsonaro virtually tied with Lula in a simulated second-round vote, marking a significant gain for Bolsonaro and intensifying the election race, which influenced market perceptions of the election outcome.
Severe rains cause deadly floods in Minas Gerais, state of Romeu Zema
Romeu Zema rises to 3%1%
Heavy rains in Minas Gerais led to floods and landslides causing over 60 deaths and thousands displaced. Governor Romeu Zema declared a state of mourning and emergency, with federal aid mobilized, highlighting his leadership during the crisis and increasing his visibility.
Lula vetoes bill that could cut Bolsonaro’s prison term
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 49%4%
President Lula vetoed a bill that would have reduced former President Bolsonaro’s 27‑year prison term. The move was framed as a stand against the 2023 coup attempt and was interpreted as bolstering Lula’s law‑and‑order image while hurting Flávio Bolsonaro’s prospects, pushing Lula’s market price down from 53 % to 49 % and Flávio’s up from 27 % to 30 % the next day.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announces resignation to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 2%50%
Fernando Haddad declared his intention to leave the finance ministry to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, reducing his presidential election odds and causing a sharp drop in his market price from over 50% to around 3%.
Flávio Bolsonaro reaches 29 % after releasing detailed policy platform
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%3%
Flávio’s rollout of a concrete economic platform reassured voters, pushing his price upward during February.
Opposition files legal complaints against Lula over Rio Carnival tribute
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%1%
Brazilian opposition accused President Lula of illegal early campaigning funded by public money due to a Rio Carnival tribute, escalating political tensions and impacting Lula's campaign dynamics.
Flávio Bolsonaro announced as Liberal Party's presidential candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 27%11%
Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the Liberal Party's presidential candidate, significantly increasing Flávio's market support as he became the main challenger to Lula da Silva.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro neck and neck in second round
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 30%15%
A February poll indicated a tightening race with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in a potential runoff, leading to increased market support for Bolsonaro and a decline for Lula.
Finance minister Haddad resigns to launch São Paulo governor bid
Fernando Haddad rises to 4%2%
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigned to run for governor of São Paulo, raising his personal profile and adding a new name to the election field. The announcement lifted Haddad’s market share from 2 % to 4 % and gave a modest bump to Lula’s odds as the administration signalled a broader coalition.
Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison hospital
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%2%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving his prison sentence, raising concerns about his health and impacting perceptions of his political viability and that of his family.
Poll shows Lula leads first-round but faces tighter runoffs against Bolsonaro
A poll by Instituto Ideia showed Lula leading first-round scenarios but with narrow margins in runoff matchups against Flávio Bolsonaro, indicating a tightening race and increasing uncertainty in the market.
Poll shows Lula leading first-round but tighter runoff scenarios
A new survey by Instituto Ideia published by Canal Meio showed Lula leading in first-round scenarios but facing statistically tied runoff matchups against Bolsonaro-linked candidates, indicating a polarized electorate and tightening race. This contributed to market adjustments reflecting increased uncertainty about Lula's outright win.
Ceará Senate race turmoil as Camilo Santana auctions off state’s two Senate slots
Education Minister Camilo Santana's political maneuvers in Ceará complicated the local political landscape, signaling his potential future candidacy and affecting local support dynamics, but with limited direct impact on presidential market prices.
Brazil’s finance minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for Sao Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to run for governor of Sao Paulo, reducing his chances in the presidential race and causing his market price to drop significantly from over 50% to around 3%.
Fernando Haddad resigns as Brazil’s finance minister to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigned to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, signaling his political ambitions and potential as Lula’s successor, which affected his market support and Lula’s dynamics.
Ronaldo Caiado switches parties and announces presidential candidacy
Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado left Brazil Union for the Social Democratic Party (PSD) to run for president, aiming to consolidate the right-wing vote. This move caused a shift in market support, with Caiado's price initially rising then falling as the right-wing field fragmented.
Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado joins PSD, becomes party’s presidential hopeful
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 3%2%
Caiado announced his departure from Brazil Union and his registration with the Social Democratic Party (PSD), positioning himself as the PSD’s presidential candidate. The party switch gave him a national platform and lifted his market share from 1 % to 3 % before it fell back to 1 % later in May.
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 25%7%
The Supreme Court ordered Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger cell with better conditions, reflecting ongoing judicial management of his incarceration and affecting public and market views on his status.
Ronaldo Caiado switches parties to PSD, announces presidential bid
Ronaldo Caiado jumps to 15%10%
Governor Ronaldo Caiado left Brazil Union to join the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and announced his intention to run for president, positioning himself as a conservative alternative and causing his market price to rise.
Flávio Bolsonaro announced as presidential candidate by his father Jair Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 26%11%
Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the Liberal Party's presidential candidate for the 2026 election, boosting Flávio's market price significantly as he became the main challenger to Lula.
Education Minister Camilo Santana releases poor medical school performance data
Minister of Education Camilo Santana announced results of the first ENAMED exam showing poor performance in nearly one-third of medical schools, emphasizing quality concerns. This event highlighted Santana's role and may have influenced his low market support as a presidential candidate.
Education Minister Camilo Santana flags poor performance at nearly one-third of medical schools
Camilo Santana, Minister of Education, released data showing poor performance in many medical schools, emphasizing quality control and transparency, which raised his political profile but had limited direct impact on presidential market prices.
Ministry of Education flags poor performance at nearly one-third of medical schools
Minister of Education Camilo Santana announced results of the first National Medical Training Assessment Exam (ENAMED), highlighting quality concerns in medical education. This event underscored Santana's role but did not significantly boost his presidential prospects, reflected in his low market support.
Lula undergoes cataract surgery
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%3%
Lula disclosed that he underwent cataract surgery in Brasília, raising concerns about his health but also demonstrating his ability to continue campaigning. The market dipped 3 percentage points in the days that followed.
Brazilian judge orders house arrest for 10 convicted in Bolsonaro coup plot
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 18%3%
A judge issued house arrest orders for several Bolsonaro allies convicted in the coup plot, highlighting ongoing legal pressures on Bolsonaro's circle and influencing market perceptions of Bolsonaro's political viability.
Lula leads Flávio by nine points in Jan 2026 Quaest poll
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 53%1%
A Reuters‑quoted Quaest poll released on 14 January showed Lula leading Flávio by 9 percentage points (40 % vs 31 %). The poll reinforced Lula’s lead and helped stabilize his market price around 53 %, ending the early‑year volatility.
Michelle Bolsonaro backs Tarcísio de Freitas, hints at split with Flávio
Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 1%1%
Michelle Bolsonaro posted a video endorsing São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and criticizing President Lula’s economic policy. The move was interpreted as a split with her son Flávio, signalling internal right‑wing rifts and nudging her own market price up from 0 % to 1 % (the smallest rise recorded).
Lula maintains lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in early 2026 poll
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%4%
A January poll showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintaining a lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status early in the election cycle. This helped keep Lula's market price relatively high at the start of the year.
Poll shows Lula leading right-wing rivals including Flávio Bolsonaro
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 53%1%
A January poll showed President Lula leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and other right-wing rivals in voting intentions for the 2026 election, reinforcing Lula's position as the frontrunner and influencing market prices accordingly.
Poll shows Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro and Tarcísio de Freitas in early 2026 race
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%3%
A Quaest poll released in mid-January showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and Governor Tarcísio de Freitas in voting intentions, setting the initial market expectations for the election.
Lula leads early 2026 presidential polls over Flávio Bolsonaro
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%3%
A January poll showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in voting intentions, supporting Lula's stable market price and Flávio's moderate position in the race.
Michelle Bolsonaro signals break with Flávio Bolsonaro
Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 1%1%
Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro publicly shared a video endorsing São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and criticizing Lula’s economic policy, signaling internal divisions within the Bolsonaro camp and affecting right-wing dynamics.
President Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 50%3%
On the third anniversary of the 2023 riots, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed a bill that would have reduced Jair Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence for his failed coup attempt, reinforcing Bolsonaro's legal challenges and impacting perceptions of Bolsonaro's political viability.
Brazil’s Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro’s prison time
President Lula vetoed a bill that would have reduced Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence for his coup attempt, reinforcing Bolsonaro's continued incarceration and diminishing any market optimism for his political comeback.
Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro's prison time
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%3%
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed a bill that would have reduced Jair Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence for his 2023 coup attempt, reinforcing Lula's tough stance on Bolsonaro and impacting Bolsonaro's political prospects negatively.
Flávio Bolsonaro announces plan to name finance minister before election
Flávio Bolsonaro declared he would announce his finance minister ahead of the 2026 election to signal a pro-market agenda, aiming to reassure investors and boost his viability as a presidential candidate. This announcement helped increase his market support as it showed readiness and seriousness in economic policy.
Flávio Bolsonaro announces finance minister pick ahead of election
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro announced plans to name his finance minister before the 2026 election, signaling a pro-market agenda and aiming to reassure investors about his economic policies. This announcement boosted his candidacy's credibility and market support.
Flávio Bolsonaro to announce finance minister before election
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 17%6%
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro announced plans to name his finance minister before the 2026 election to signal a pro-market agenda, aiming to reassure investors and strengthen his candidacy, which helped increase his market support.
Flávio Bolsonaro to announce finance minister before election
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 24%9%
Flávio Bolsonaro announced plans to name his finance minister ahead of the election to signal a pro-market economic agenda, aiming to reassure investors and improve his campaign's credibility amid rising poll numbers.
Central Bank keeps interest rates at 15%, slowing economic growth
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%2%
The Banco Central do Brasil maintained high interest rates in January 2026, which contributed to economic deceleration and weighed against Lula's re-election prospects, reflected in a dip in his market price.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 5%47%
Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to launch a high-profile campaign for governor of São Paulo, reducing his presidential election odds as he shifted focus to state politics, which was reflected in a sharp decline in his market price.
Bolsonaro returns to jail after hernia surgery in Brasilia
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 15%5%
After undergoing double hernia surgery, Bolsonaro was released from hospital and returned to jail, maintaining his incarceration status and limiting his political activity, which influenced market perceptions and kept his family's candidacies under scrutiny.
Renan Santos’ poll share collapses after poor debate performance
Renan Santos plunges to 6%44%
A televised debate in late December highlighted Santos’ lack of national recognition, causing his price to tumble from 50 % to single‑digit levels.
Flávio Bolsonaro faces challenges due to family unpopularity
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 18%3%
Polls showed 70% of independent voters rejecting any Bolsonaro family member, limiting Flávio Bolsonaro's appeal despite his moderate positioning, causing market volatility in his support around late December.
Real slides as polls lift Flávio Bolsonaro’s election odds
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 23%11%
A Bloomberg report on the Brazilian real’s weakening after a poll showing Flávio gaining ground sparked a rapid price jump for Flávio from 12 % to 23 % on 28 Dec, the highest level in the analysis window.
Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison hospital
Michelle Bolsonaro drops to 1%10%
Bolsonaro underwent a successful double hernia surgery, temporarily affecting his political activity and public perception. His health issues and imprisonment status contributed to market uncertainty, impacting his and related candidates' probabilities.
Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential candidacy gains momentum in polls
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%
Following the announcement of his candidacy, Flávio Bolsonaro's market probability surged from 1% to 10%, reflecting increased public and political attention on his campaign as a serious contender against Lula.
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Jair Bolsonaro to larger prison cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 13%12%
The Supreme Court ordered Bolsonaro's transfer to a more comfortable prison cell with better facilities, which was part of ongoing legal and health developments affecting his political viability and indirectly influencing market perceptions of his and his family's electoral prospects.
Jair Bolsonaro appoints son Flávio Bolsonaro as presidential candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro wrote a letter appointing his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the Liberal Party's presidential candidate for the 2026 election, signaling a direct challenge to incumbent Lula and boosting Flávio's market probability from near zero to double digits.
Flávio Bolsonaro announced as presidential candidate by his father Jair Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 12%11%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the presidential candidate for their party, boosting Flávio's profile and causing a significant rise in his market price from near 1% to over 12%. This announcement positioned Flávio as a main challenger to Lula.
Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery and returns to prison
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 27%15%
Bolsonaro’s health episode kept him out of the public eye, limiting his campaign impact and shifting attention to his son Flávio, whose price continued to rise.
Michelle Bolsonaro’s public support drops after husband’s surgery
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 1%51%
With Jair Bolsonaro’s limited visibility, Michelle Bolsonaro’s own political relevance faded sharply, reflected in a plunge of her market price to near‑zero.
Right-wing fragmentation as Flávio Bolsonaro faces resistance within his own camp
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 15%3%
Despite Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement, Flávio Bolsonaro faced lukewarm support and resistance from other right-wing politicians and family members, causing volatility in his market price.
Right-wing fragmentation opens space for Renan Santos candidacy
Renan Santos rises to 8%2%
Political analysts noted that Flávio Bolsonaro's unpopularity and right-wing fragmentation created an opening for Renan Santos, boosting his candidacy and market price amid concerns about opposition unity against Lula.
Jair Bolsonaro endorses son Flávio for 2026 presidency
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 12%10%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro publicly endorsed his son Flávio as the right‑wing candidate. The endorsement lifted Flávio’s odds dramatically, lifting his price from 2 % to 12 % between 29 Nov and 7 Dec 2025.
Right-wing fragmentation as Bolsonaro endorsement fails to unite opposition
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%
Following Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement of Flávio Bolsonaro, right-wing leaders expressed skepticism and fragmentation increased, with other candidates like Renan Santos gaining attention. This dynamic affected Flávio Bolsonaro's polling ceiling and market prices.
Bolsonaro endorses Flávio Bolsonaro as 2026 presidential candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 18%8%
From a hospital bed, former President Jair Bolsonaro formally endorsed his son Flávio Bolsonaro for the 2026 presidential election, solidifying Flávio's position as the main right-wing candidate and boosting his market price.
Flávio Bolsonaro declares pre‑candidacy with father’s backing
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%
In a televised interview, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro announced his official pre‑candidacy with his father’s endorsement, sparking a rapid rise in his market price from 1 % to 10 % within a week.
Finance Minister Haddad to resign in February, ending presidential speculation
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announced he would leave the government in February 2026 to help Lula’s campaign, effectively ending his presidential bid. Traders cut Haddad’s price from around 52 % on 18 Sept to 3 % by 1 Oct, reflecting the market’s reaction to his exit from the race.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announces he will leave government to support Lula's campaign
Fernando Haddad plunges to 2%50%
Fernando Haddad confirmed he would leave his finance minister position in February 2026 to collaborate with Lula's reelection campaign, effectively ending his own presidential bid and causing a sharp decline in his market price.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad confirms he will leave government to support Lula's 2026 campaign
Fernando Haddad plunges to 2%50%
Fernando Haddad announced his intention to leave the finance ministry in February 2026 to collaborate with Lula's re-election campaign, causing his market price to drop sharply from 52% to 2%.
Poll shows Lula far ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026 race
A Bloomberg poll showed Lula well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro despite the latter's rising profile, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status and causing some market adjustments.
Markets react negatively to Lula's lead in election polls
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 48%1%
A poll showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead in the 2026 election caused Brazilian markets to slump, reflecting investor wariness about Lula's economic policies and the election outlook. This event coincided with Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy announcement, influencing market sentiment.
Poll shows Lula leading, causing market jitters and asset sell-off
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 48%11%
A poll published on December 16, 2025, showed President Lula ahead in the election, which led to a slump in Brazilian markets as investors grew wary of the economic outlook under his continued leadership.
Quaest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro gaining ground, jolting markets
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 18%8%
A poll revealed Flávio Bolsonaro's rising support, causing market volatility with stock declines and currency gains as investors reassessed his chances against Lula. The poll also indicated high rejection rates for Bolsonaro, suggesting uncertainty about his candidacy's viability.
Datafolha poll puts Lula ahead, markets slump on fiscal‑risk fears
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 42%13%
A Datafolha poll released on 16 Dec 2025 showed Lula ahead of all rivals. The market interpreted the poll as a signal that Lula’s fiscal agenda could tighten, causing his price to fall from 55 % to 42 % in two days.
Flávio Bolsonaro officially announces presidential pre-candidacy
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 20%19%
Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the imprisoned former president, announced his pre-candidacy for president, mobilizing the Liberal Party's evangelical and rural networks, which led to a significant rise in his market price from 1% to 20%.
Jair Bolsonaro endorses son Flávio Bolsonaro for presidency
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 6%5%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the far-right Liberal Party's presidential candidate, causing Flávio's market support to surge from 1% to 6% and later higher as right-wing voters rallied.
Flávio Bolsonaro ramps up campaign after father returns to prison
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 16%8%
Following Jair Bolsonaro’s return to prison after his hernia operation, Flávio Bolsonaro campaigned actively on television, further raising his profile and pushing his probability up to 16 % by late December.
Flávio Bolsonaro retracts “price” comment on abandoning campaign
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 2%1%
Flávio Bolsonaro claimed he could withdraw from the race for a “price”, then retracted the comment, generating a brief market dip for Flávio (down to 1 %) and a modest rebound for Luiz Lula as the scandal faded.
Lula announces Fernando Haddad as Minister of Economy in new government
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Lula's announcement of Fernando Haddad as Minister of Economy reinforced Haddad's political relevance but did not translate into sustained market support, as Haddad's election chances declined significantly afterward.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s São Paulo rally goes viral
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%
A Reuters video of Flávio Bolsonaro’s rally in São Paulo was widely shared, boosting his public profile. The surge helped his market price climb from 1 % to 10 % in the following days.
Flávio Bolsonaro announces presidential run, boosting his market support
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%
Flávio Bolsonaro's entry into the presidential race caused a sharp increase in his market price as he gained recognition as a right-wing contender, reflecting shifting dynamics in the opposition.
Jair Bolsonaro endorses son Flávio Bolsonaro for 2026 presidential race
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 11%9%
Imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro publicly endorsed his son Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential bid, boosting Flávio's market price from 2% to 11% and signaling him as the right-wing candidate.
Flávio Bolsonaro enters Brazil’s 2026 presidential race with father’s endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 6%5%
Imprisoned ex-President Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his eldest son Flávio Bolsonaro as the far-right Liberal Party's presidential candidate, causing Flávio's market support to surge from 1% to 6% and later higher as right-wing voters rallied behind him.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 4%48%
Haddad’s resignation removed a senior Lula ally from the cabinet, diminishing his personal political brand and causing a steep decline in his own election market price.
Lula’s administration replaces Haddad with Dario Durigan
Fernando Haddad dips to 2%2%
The cabinet shuffle further signaled a shift away from Haddad’s influence, reinforcing the market’s move away from his candidacy.
Flávio Bolsonaro Endorsed by Imprisoned Father for 2026 Presidential Bid
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 32%30%
Imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential campaign, significantly boosting the far-right candidate's visibility and leading to a price surge from 2% to 32%.
Flávio Bolsonaro named pre‑candidate, DI rates surge
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 12%11%
Infomoney reported that the announcement of Flávio Bolsonaro’s pre‑candidate status caused DI rates to spike 50 bp and lifted Flávio’s market price sharply, from 1 % on 29 Nov to 12 % on 7 Dec.
Flávio Bolsonaro named presidential candidate in Bolsonaro’s handwritten letter
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 8%6%
During a press conference before his father’s hernia surgery, Flávio Bolsonaro read a handwritten letter in which Jair Bolsonaro formally appointed him as the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate, sending Flávio’s market odds soaring from 2 % to 8 % in a single day.
Jair Bolsonaro endorses son Flávio for 2026 presidency
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 11%10%
Jair Bolsonaro publicly endorsed his son Flávio for the 2026 presidency. The endorsement lifted Flávio’s perceived viability and drove his market price from 1 % to 11 % within a few days, starting the upward trend that peaked at 23 % on 28 December.
Jair Bolsonaro backs son Flávio for 2026 presidential candidacy
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%
Jair Bolsonaro publicly endorsed his son Flávio as the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate. The endorsement sent Flávio’s price soaring from near‑zero to double‑digits (≈2 % on 18 Nov to 10 % on 6 Dec) and sparked a broader rally of right‑wing support.
Flávio Bolsonaro announces presidential candidacy with father's endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 11%10%
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, eldest son of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro, officially announced his candidacy for the 2026 presidential election with his father's endorsement, causing a surge in his market support from near zero to double digits.
Flávio Bolsonaro officially enters 2026 presidential race with father's endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 4%3%
Flávio Bolsonaro announced his candidacy for the presidency with the backing of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, marking a significant moment that boosted his visibility and polling numbers. This announcement contributed to his rise in the market from near 1-2% to higher levels.
Flávio Bolsonaro announces 2026 presidential bid with father’s endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 26%24%
Flávio Bolsonaro announced his presidential candidacy, backed by an endorsement letter from his imprisoned father. The announcement lifted Flávio’s market price from ~1 % to double‑digits within a week.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Fernando Haddad resigned as finance minister to run for governor of São Paulo, reducing his presidential election prospects and causing his market probability to drop sharply.
Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in Brasilia hospital
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 13%12%
Bolsonaro underwent a medically necessary double hernia surgery, which temporarily removed him from active political engagement and raised concerns about his health, impacting market confidence in his and his family's electoral prospects.
Jair Bolsonaro backs son Flávio for 2026 presidential race
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%
Jair Bolsonaro publicly endorsed his son Flávio as the right‑wing candidate, triggering a surge in Flávio’s market price from 2 % to 10 % within a few days and later to a peak of 23 % on 28 Dec 2025.
Poll shows Lula leads all potential right-wing challengers ahead of 2026 vote
A poll released on November 25 confirmed Lula leading against right-wing challengers including former President Bolsonaro, his son Eduardo Bolsonaro, and Michelle Bolsonaro. This reinforced Lula’s frontrunner status despite some opposition presence.
MDA poll shows Lula leads all right-wing challengers, including Bolsonaro
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%2%
A poll by MDA found Lula leading in all potential second-round matchups, with 46% against São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas (39%) and 49% against former President Bolsonaro (37%). This reinforced Lula's position and showed Bolsonaro's candidacy was still generating interest despite legal barriers.
Poll shows Lula leading all right-wing rivals ahead of 2026 election
A poll released in late November showed Lula leading potential right-wing challengers by a significant margin, reinforcing his frontrunner status and causing market prices to stabilize around his candidacy.
Jair Bolsonaro arrested after tampering with ankle monitor
Jair Bolsonaro dips to 1%1%
On November 22, 2025, Jair Bolsonaro was arrested after attempting to damage his electronic ankle monitor, ending his house arrest. This event confirmed his incarceration and further diminished his political viability, reflected in his market price falling to near zero.
Fernando Haddad's market price collapses amid lack of campaign momentum
Fernando Haddad plunges to 4%48%
Fernando Haddad's price fell sharply from 52% to 4% over the analysis window, reflecting his diminishing viability as a leading candidate in the election, likely due to campaign dynamics and voter shifts.
Trump lifts tariffs on Brazilian products after meeting Lula
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 56%6%
Following a meeting between Lula and Trump, the US lifted tariffs on Brazilian goods, improving Brazil's economic outlook and bolstering Lula's popularity and market support.
Federal police arrest Jair Bolsonaro over alleged escape plot
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 1%1%
Jair Bolsonaro was arrested by federal police on suspicion of plotting to escape his 27-year prison sentence, intensifying political tensions and impacting the Bolsonaro family’s electoral prospects, especially Flávio Bolsonaro.
Flávio Bolsonaro formally launches 2026 presidential campaign with father's endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%
Flávio Bolsonaro announced his candidacy for president in 2026 with formal endorsement from his imprisoned father Jair Bolsonaro, energizing right-wing voters and causing a significant rise in his market price.
Renan Santos gains attention with national Bitcoin reserve proposal
Renan Santos rises to 7%2%
Renan Santos publicly advocated for establishing a national Bitcoin reserve to transform Brazil's economy and fight corruption, boosting his profile and increasing market support for his candidacy from 5% to 7%.
Polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in presidential runoff race
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 47%7%
Polling data indicated a statistical tie between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro in the upcoming runoff, reflecting a highly polarized electorate and influencing market prices to stabilize around these candidates.
Flávio Bolsonaro endorsed as candidate by Jair Bolsonaro's movement
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%
After speculation about the right-wing candidate, former president Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son Flávio Bolsonaro, boosting Flávio's profile and causing his market price to rise from 2% to 10% in December.
Fernando Haddad resigns as Brazil's finance minister to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 2%50%
Fernando Haddad resigned from his position as finance minister to launch a high-profile campaign for governor of São Paulo, reducing his chances in the presidential race and causing his market price to drop from 52% to 2%.
Lula’s popularity declines but opposition fails to gain ground
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 49%7%
An analysis on November 14 showed Lula’s lead shrinking against several rivals, including Michelle Bolsonaro and Eduardo Bolsonaro, but no significant opposition gains occurred. This contributed to a decline in Lula’s market price and a collapse in Renan Santos and Fernando Haddad’s prices.
Former President Jair Bolsonaro hospitalized with pneumonia, raising health concerns
Renan Santos dips to 5%2%
Jair Bolsonaro was admitted to intensive care with pneumonia, causing uncertainty about his ability to campaign or influence the election. This health crisis contributed to a decline in market prices for Bolsonaro-linked candidates.
Brazilian Congress overrides Lula’s veto, reducing Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
The Brazilian Congress overrode President Lula’s veto to pass a law reducing prison sentences for sedition, potentially cutting Bolsonaro’s sentence by up to 20 years, boosting the Bolsonaro political faction’s morale and market support for Flávio Bolsonaro.
Poll shows Lula leads but with narrowing edge amid Bolsonaro's shadow
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 54%5%
A poll released on November 13, 2025, showed Lula still leading the 2026 presidential race but with a narrowing margin as Bolsonaro's support increased despite his legal ineligibility. This contributed to some market volatility and a slight decline in Lula's price and a minor uptick for Bolsonaro and Renan Santos.
Poll shows Lula's lead narrowing as Bolsonaro's support grows
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 9%8%
A Genial/Quaest poll showed Lula still leading but with a narrowing margin against conservative rivals, while Flávio Bolsonaro's support increased from 18% to 26%, reflecting a more competitive race and causing market adjustments.
Poll shows Lula’s lead narrows as Bolsonaro’s shadow grows
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 49%10%
A November 13 poll showed Lula’s lead narrowing against Bolsonaro-backed candidates despite Bolsonaro’s legal ineligibility. Support for Bolsonaro’s candidacy increased, while Lula’s reelection support slipped, impacting market prices for Lula and Michelle Bolsonaro.
Lula’s approval rating halts upward trend amid rising security concerns
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 49%10%
Polls showed Lula’s approval rating plateauing and disapproval rising due to growing public concern over violence and security issues, which negatively impacted his market price. This reflected voter unease affecting Lula's perceived strength.
Former President Jair Bolsonaro sentenced to 27 years for coup attempt
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 56%6%
The sentencing of Jair Bolsonaro removed a major right-wing contender from the race, weakening the opposition and indirectly strengthening Lula's position in the market.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins 2022 Brazilian presidential election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 63%8%
Lula's victory in the 2022 election solidified his position as a leading political figure, initially supporting his high market price in late 2025. This event set the stage for his re-election campaign and influenced early market confidence.
Lula meets Trump in Malaysia to discuss trade tensions
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva surges to 63%20%
During the ASEAN summit, Lula and Trump held a nearly hour-long meeting addressing the 50% tariffs imposed by the US on Brazilian exports. Lula advocated for suspension of tariffs during negotiations, signaling diplomatic efforts to ease economic tensions, which likely bolstered Lula's market confidence temporarily.
President Lula announces re-election campaign for fourth term
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 56%1%
In late October 2025, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially launched his campaign for a fourth presidential term, reinforcing his frontrunner status and impacting market confidence in his candidacy.
Lula confirms 2026 re‑election bid in Indonesia
President Lula announced his intention to run for a fourth term during a state visit to Indonesia, formally confirming his candidacy and reinforcing his frontrunner status. Market probability for Lula rose to the mid‑50 % range shortly after.
Lula vetoes bill lowering Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 52%14%
Lula vetoed a bill that would have reduced Jair Bolsonaro’s 27‑year prison term, reinforcing his tough stance on the Bolsonaro faction and causing a modest rebound of his price from 38 % to 52 % in late October.
Lula Announces Fourth Presidential Term in 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 49%6%
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva confirmed he will run for a fourth non-consecutive term in the 2026 election, boosting his campaign momentum and leading to a price increase from 55% to 49%.
Lula announces he will seek a historic fourth term in 2026 election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 57%9%
On October 23, 2025, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva publicly announced his intention to run for a fourth nonconsecutive term in the 2026 presidential election, reinforcing his frontrunner status and impacting market prices positively for his candidacy.
Lula announces bid for historic fourth presidential term
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 56%13%
Lula officially declared his intention to run for a fourth term, defying expectations given his age, which caused a rally in his market price as he reaffirmed his political ambitions and leadership.
Lula announces run for fourth presidential term in 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva surges to 63%22%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially declared his candidacy for a fourth term, reinforcing his frontrunner status and causing his market price to rebound from a dip.
Renan Santos says ‘right can win without Bolsonaro’
Renan Santos rises to 4%3%
Renan Santos, founder of the new Mission party, gave an interview declaring the right‑wing could succeed without the Bolsonaro name. The message resonated with independent voters and lifted his market price from 1 % (mid‑October) to 4 % by the end of the month.
Electoral Institute corrects Renan Santos poll from 50 % to 4 %
Renan Santos plunges to 7%43%
A poll released by the Brazilian Electoral Institute showed Renan Santos at 50 % support early October, but a subsequent corrected poll a week later placed him at just 4 %, explaining the sharp decline from 50 % to 7 % in the market.
Flávio Bolsonaro emerges as Bolsonaro’s official presidential candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 11%9%
Following the veto, Flávio Bolsonaro announced he would run as the official candidate of the Bolsonaro camp, giving his name a clear electoral identity and driving his market price upward.
President Lula vetoes bill that would reduce Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 63%8%
Lula’s veto signaled a hard‑line stance against Bolsonaro’s legal challenges, boosting Lula’s perceived strength and raising Flávio Bolsonaro’s profile as the main challenger, while hurting Bolsonaro‑aligned candidates.
Michelle Bolsonaro says she will not run for president
Michelle Bolsonaro drops to 0%6%
In a Reuters interview Michelle Bolsonaro dismissed any speculation she would run for president, stating the decision depended on “God’s will”. The clear denial caused her market price to fall sharply from 6 % to 0 % within a week.
Congress defeats Haddad’s tax‑revenue measure
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 43%13%
Congress voted down a tax‑revenue package that Haddad had counted on for a primary‑surplus goal. The failure hurt Lula’s fiscal narrative, pulling his price down from 56 % to 43 % by the end of October.
Quaest poll shows Lula with 39% lead over Flávio
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 67%12%
A Quaest poll released on 9 Oct showed Lula leading with 39 % against Flávio’s 18 %, pushing Lula’s price up to a 67 % peak on 9 Oct before a pull‑back later in the month.
Lula's popularity peaks amid strong campaign momentum
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva surges to 67%15%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's market price peaked at 67% on October 9, 2025, reflecting strong campaign momentum and public support early in the election cycle.
Poll shows Lula maintains lead in all election scenarios
A Quaest poll released in early October showed Lula leading all first-round and runoff scenarios, reinforcing his frontrunner status and supporting his market price.
Diplomatic breakthrough with Donald Trump boosts Lula’s approval ratings
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 58%8%
Following a diplomatic thaw with former U.S. President Donald Trump, Lula's approval ratings improved, contributing to a price increase in his market share. This event positively influenced market confidence in Lula's electability.
Legislative override of Lula's veto reduces Bolsonaro's prison sentence potential
Renan Santos rises to 7%4%
Brazilian Congress overrode President Lula's veto on a law that reduces prison sentences for sedition, potentially cutting Jair Bolsonaro's sentence by up to 20 years. This legislative victory boosted market confidence in Bolsonaro's political faction, reflected in price recoveries for related candidates.
Lula announces R$1.6 bn Rio Doce investment package
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 56%13%
Lula announced a R$1.6 billion investment in the Rio Doce basin, creating 104 new health posts and funding water‑quality monitoring. The concrete delivery of funds boosted his visibility in the Amazon‑state corridor and pushed his market price up from 43 % to 56 % by early October.
Finance Minister Haddad confirms Lula will run for reelection in 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 50%5%
On September 27, 2025, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad publicly confirmed that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will seek reelection in 2026, solidifying Lula's candidacy and likely contributing to market confidence in his chances.
Michelle Bolsonaro hints at possible 2026 candidacy
Michelle Bolsonaro jumps to 13%12%
Michelle Bolsonaro publicly said she might run for president, causing a brief climb from 1 % to 13 % on 26 Sep, then a sharp fall to 0 % by early October as the “Bolsonaro” brand faced legal setbacks.
Michelle Bolsonaro admits she could run for president in 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro drops to 0%12%
Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro hinted she might run for president if needed. The brief surge in her market price to 12 % on 26 Sep vanished by 4 Oct, after she clarified she was only ‘considering’ a run, sending her price to 0 %.
Michelle Bolsonaro admits possibility of 2026 presidential candidacy
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 6%46%
Michelle Bolsonaro publicly admitted the possibility of running for president in 2026 amid Jair Bolsonaro's absence from the race, causing initial market interest that later declined.
Lula condemns Bolsonaro's coup attempt in UN speech, boosting his democratic credentials
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 42%13%
At the UN General Assembly, Lula highlighted Brazil's defense of democracy against Bolsonaro's coup attempt, enhancing his image as a defender of democratic institutions and increasing market confidence in his candidacy.
MBL’s Renan Santos declares Bolsonarismo imploding, opens space for new right‑wing party
Renan Santos plunges to 4%46%
Renan Santos, national coordinator of the Movimento Brasil Livre, said Bolsonarismo was “imploding,” positioning his new “Missão” party as a pragmatic right‑wing alternative. The comment coincided with a dramatic fall in Renan’s market price from 50 % (13 Sept) to 4 % (18 Oct).
Lula vetoes bill that would ease Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 58%3%
President Lula vetoed a Senate‑passed bill that would have reduced former President Bolsonaro’s prison term. The move was presented as a defence of democracy and boosted Lula’s standing among voters, lifting his market price from 55 % to 58 % over the following week.
Michelle Bolsonaro’s visibility drops amid father’s prison health saga
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 6%46%
After Jair Bolsonaro’s health crisis and the media focus on his incarceration, Michelle Bolsonaro’s public appearances and statements were sharply criticized, causing her market share to tumble from 52 % to 6 % within two days.
Renan Santos’ new party registration announced by MBL
Renan Santos jumps to 50%12%
MBL announced the registration of Renan Santos’ new ‘Missão’ party, raising his visibility and briefly lifting his market price to 50 %; the subsequent lack of momentum helped the price tumble to 4 % by mid‑October.
Quaest poll shows Lula leading all 2026 presidential scenarios
A poll by Quaest released on September 18, 2025, showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading all first- and second-round scenarios in the 2026 presidential election, reinforcing his frontrunner status and supporting his market price.
Quaest poll shows Lula leads in all 2026 presidential scenarios
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 53%1%
A major poll confirmed Lula's lead in every first- and second-round configuration, with his support ranging from 34% to 41% and Bolsonaro's from 21% to 27% in different scenarios. This established Lula as the frontrunner and set the market baseline.
Poll shows Lula leads all 2026 presidential scenarios including Michelle Bolsonaro
A Genial/Quaest poll released on September 18 showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading all tested matchups, including against former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, reinforcing Lula's front-runner status and impacting market prices accordingly.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remains front-runner in first-round scenarios
A survey by Instituto Ideia found Lula leading all first-round matchups, with a tight runoff picture against Bolsonaro, Tarcísio de Freitas, and Michelle Bolsonaro all within statistical ties.
Michelle Bolsonaro's candidacy prospects sharply decline amid campaign developments
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 5%47%
Michelle Bolsonaro's market price dropped dramatically from 52% to 5% within days, reflecting diminishing expectations of her presidential run, possibly due to her public statements denying candidacy and limited campaign activity.
Quaest poll puts Lula ahead of all rivals in 2026 presidential race
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 41%14%
A Quaest poll released on 18 Sept 2025 showed Lula leading all first‑ and second‑round scenarios (33 % vs 18 % for Michelle). The strong showing lifted Lula’s market price from 55 % to 41 % and knocked down the odds for Michelle, Flávio, Haddad and Renan, matching the sharp price swings recorded that week.
Finance Minister Haddad resigns to launch bid for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Finance Minister Haddad resigned to run for governor of São Paulo, removing him from the presidential race and causing his market probability to plunge from 52 % to 3 % within days.
Lula maintains lead in first and second-round election scenarios
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 42%13%
A Genial/Quaest poll released on September 18 showed Lula leading with 43% in first-round scenarios and maintaining leads in second-round matchups, including against Michelle Bolsonaro who had 18%. This reinforced Lula's frontrunner status early in the analysis window.
Poll shows Lula leading all 2026 presidential scenarios despite disapproval
A Quaest poll released on September 18, 2025, showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading all tested scenarios for the 2026 presidential election, although a majority of Brazilians opposed his reelection. This reinforced Lula's frontrunner status in the market.
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