The active Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, declared a public health emergency of international concern by the WHO in May 2026, establishes these countries as the primary drivers of trader sentiment for 2026 case markets. Confirmed cases number in the hundreds in DRC’s Ituri Province with linked infections in Uganda tied to cross-border travel, amid ongoing insecurity and mining-related movement that complicate contact tracing. CDC and national ministries report no spread beyond these nations as of early June, though surveillance updates and model projections for neighboring areas could shift odds if new laboratory confirmations emerge. Historical data show Bundibugyo strain outbreaks often remain localized when response intensifies, with case thresholds and geographic boundaries key to resolution.