Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate Houston highs near 85–88°F on June 4 amid scattered thunderstorms and tropical moisture, producing closely matched market odds across the 82–87°F bins. Afternoon convection driven by surface heating and weak steering flow can generate widespread cloud cover that caps daytime maxima, while brief sunny breaks or delayed storm initiation allow brief excursions a few degrees higher. These outcomes sit slightly below early-June climatological averages near 89°F, reflecting the influence of an approaching frontal boundary and elevated humidity that favor instability over sustained clear-sky heating. Updated short-range model runs and NWS afternoon briefings will refine the precise timing of any convective activity before resolution.