Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models place Istanbul's June 4 maximum in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, driving the market's tight clustering around 29–31°C outcomes amid typical early-summer variability. Official guidance highlights weak high-pressure influence and modest southerly flow that could allow brief warming spikes above 30°C, while marine influences and potential cloud cover cap extremes. Historical June averages near 26°C provide baseline context, yet current model spread reflects genuine uncertainty in steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture over the next 48 hours. Traders are weighting the 30°C bin highest as it aligns with the median of updated runs, with lower probabilities assigned to cooler or hotter tails pending the next model cycle.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 4?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 4?
30°C 32%
29°C 23%
31°C or higher 17%
28°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-06-04
21°C or below
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
12%
29°C
23%
30°C
32%
31°C or higher
17%
30°C 32%
29°C 23%
31°C or higher 17%
28°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-06-04
21°C or below
$10 交易量
1%
22°C
$10 交易量
1%
23°C
$10 交易量
1%
24°C
$341 交易量
1%
25°C
$31 交易量
1%
26°C
$31 交易量
1%
27°C
$0 交易量
4%
28°C
$0 交易量
12%
29°C
$0 交易量
23%
30°C
$0 交易量
32%
31°C or higher
$55 交易量
17%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models place Istanbul's June 4 maximum in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, driving the market's tight clustering around 29–31°C outcomes amid typical early-summer variability. Official guidance highlights weak high-pressure influence and modest southerly flow that could allow brief warming spikes above 30°C, while marine influences and potential cloud cover cap extremes. Historical June averages near 26°C provide baseline context, yet current model spread reflects genuine uncertainty in steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture over the next 48 hours. Traders are weighting the 30°C bin highest as it aligns with the median of updated runs, with lower probabilities assigned to cooler or hotter tails pending the next model cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jun 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$488结束日期
2026-06-04市场开放时间
Jun 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models place Istanbul's June 4 maximum in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, driving the market's tight clustering around 29–31°C outcomes amid typical early-summer variability. Official guidance highlights weak high-pressure influence and modest southerly flow that could allow brief warming spikes above 30°C, while marine influences and potential cloud cover cap extremes. Historical June averages near 26°C provide baseline context, yet current model spread reflects genuine uncertainty in steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture over the next 48 hours. Traders are weighting the 30°C bin highest as it aligns with the median of updated runs, with lower probabilities assigned to cooler or hotter tails pending the next model cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$488结束日期
2026-06-04市场开放时间
Jun 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models place Istanbul's June 4 maximum in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, driving the market's tight clustering around 29–31°C outcomes amid typical early-summer variability. Official guidance highlights weak high-pressure influence and modest southerly flow that could allow brief warming spikes above 30°C, while marine influences and potential cloud cover cap extremes. Historical June averages near 26°C provide baseline context, yet current model spread reflects genuine uncertainty in steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture over the next 48 hours. Traders are weighting the 30°C bin highest as it aligns with the median of updated runs, with lower probabilities assigned to cooler or hotter tails pending the next model cycle.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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