The strong market-implied probability for any 2026 month setting a new global temperature record stems primarily from the high likelihood of an El Niño event developing by mid-year and peaking late in 2026. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center places an 82% chance of El Niño conditions emerging in May–July and 96% through the Northern Hemisphere winter, building on ENSO-neutral conditions after a weak La Niña earlier in the year. This natural warming phase, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend that has already produced record years in 2023 and 2024, is expected to elevate monthly global averages above prior peaks. Early 2026 months have ranked only fourth-warmest amid residual cooling, but model consensus points to substantial late-year increases. Traders weigh the risk that a weaker-than-forecast El Niño or rapid model shifts could prevent a new record, yet the current scientific outlook supports the elevated odds for at least one standout month.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$139,483 交易量
$139,483 交易量
2027-01-10
是
$139,483 交易量
$139,483 交易量
2027-01-10
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.The strong market-implied probability for any 2026 month setting a new global temperature record stems primarily from the high likelihood of an El Niño event developing by mid-year and peaking late in 2026. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center places an 82% chance of El Niño conditions emerging in May–July and 96% through the Northern Hemisphere winter, building on ENSO-neutral conditions after a weak La Niña earlier in the year. This natural warming phase, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend that has already produced record years in 2023 and 2024, is expected to elevate monthly global averages above prior peaks. Early 2026 months have ranked only fourth-warmest amid residual cooling, but model consensus points to substantial late-year increases. Traders weigh the risk that a weaker-than-forecast El Niño or rapid model shifts could prevent a new record, yet the current scientific outlook supports the elevated odds for at least one standout month.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
市场开放时间： Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
交易量
$139,483结束日期
2027-01-10市场开放时间
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.The strong market-implied probability for any 2026 month setting a new global temperature record stems primarily from the high likelihood of an El Niño event developing by mid-year and peaking late in 2026. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center places an 82% chance of El Niño conditions emerging in May–July and 96% through the Northern Hemisphere winter, building on ENSO-neutral conditions after a weak La Niña earlier in the year. This natural warming phase, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend that has already produced record years in 2023 and 2024, is expected to elevate monthly global averages above prior peaks. Early 2026 months have ranked only fourth-warmest amid residual cooling, but model consensus points to substantial late-year increases. Traders weigh the risk that a weaker-than-forecast El Niño or rapid model shifts could prevent a new record, yet the current scientific outlook supports the elevated odds for at least one standout month.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$139,483结束日期
2027-01-10市场开放时间
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The strong market-implied probability for any 2026 month setting a new global temperature record stems primarily from the high likelihood of an El Niño event developing by mid-year and peaking late in 2026. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center places an 82% chance of El Niño conditions emerging in May–July and 96% through the Northern Hemisphere winter, building on ENSO-neutral conditions after a weak La Niña earlier in the year. This natural warming phase, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend that has already produced record years in 2023 and 2024, is expected to elevate monthly global averages above prior peaks. Early 2026 months have ranked only fourth-warmest amid residual cooling, but model consensus points to substantial late-year increases. Traders weigh the risk that a weaker-than-forecast El Niño or rapid model shifts could prevent a new record, yet the current scientific outlook supports the elevated odds for at least one standout month.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题