Enhanced screening at U.S. entry points, combined with CDC assessments that the risk to the general public remains low, drives the 76.5% market-implied probability against an Ebola case arriving by June 30. The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in remote areas of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, declared a public health emergency of international concern in mid-May, has produced hundreds of suspected cases and dozens of confirmed ones without evidence of spread to the United States. Direct-contact transmission dynamics, ongoing containment efforts including contact tracing and border measures, and the absence of any imported cases to date reinforce trader expectations that a U.S. detection is unlikely within the remaining window, though evolving case counts and travel patterns could shift conditions.