Elevated euro-area inflation projections, revised upward to around 2.6% for 2026 amid energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven ECB Governing Council members to signal a data-dependent shift toward tighter monetary policy. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% through recent meetings and incoming data showing persistent price pressures, officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted the potential for hikes beginning in June if projections do not improve. Forward guidance and professional forecaster surveys now price at least one or two 25-basis-point increases this year. Trader consensus on a rate hike occurring in 2026 reflects this combination of verified inflation risks and explicit policy signals, though rapid de-escalation in energy supply disruptions or materially softer growth and core inflation readings could still alter the trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$124,834 交易量
$124,834 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$124,834 交易量
$124,834 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation projections, revised upward to around 2.6% for 2026 amid energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven ECB Governing Council members to signal a data-dependent shift toward tighter monetary policy. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% through recent meetings and incoming data showing persistent price pressures, officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted the potential for hikes beginning in June if projections do not improve. Forward guidance and professional forecaster surveys now price at least one or two 25-basis-point increases this year. Trader consensus on a rate hike occurring in 2026 reflects this combination of verified inflation risks and explicit policy signals, though rapid de-escalation in energy supply disruptions or materially softer growth and core inflation readings could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
交易量
$124,834结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation projections, revised upward to around 2.6% for 2026 amid energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven ECB Governing Council members to signal a data-dependent shift toward tighter monetary policy. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% through recent meetings and incoming data showing persistent price pressures, officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted the potential for hikes beginning in June if projections do not improve. Forward guidance and professional forecaster surveys now price at least one or two 25-basis-point increases this year. Trader consensus on a rate hike occurring in 2026 reflects this combination of verified inflation risks and explicit policy signals, though rapid de-escalation in energy supply disruptions or materially softer growth and core inflation readings could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$125,085结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation projections, revised upward to around 2.6% for 2026 amid energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have driven ECB Governing Council members to signal a data-dependent shift toward tighter monetary policy. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% through recent meetings and incoming data showing persistent price pressures, officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted the potential for hikes beginning in June if projections do not improve. Forward guidance and professional forecaster surveys now price at least one or two 25-basis-point increases this year. Trader consensus on a rate hike occurring in 2026 reflects this combination of verified inflation risks and explicit policy signals, though rapid de-escalation in energy supply disruptions or materially softer growth and core inflation readings could still alter the trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题