Forecast models from agencies including INMET indicate a maximum temperature near 21°C for São Paulo on June 3 under typical early-winter conditions, with partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow limiting afternoon heating. This aligns with climatological baselines where June daily highs average 20–23°C, reflecting the seasonal southward shift of the subtropical high and reduced solar insolation. Traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to 20°C and 21°C because small variations in cloud thickness, boundary-layer mixing, or localized urban heat-island effects can shift the observed peak by 1°C, while lower probabilities on 22°C or above reflect limited warming potential under current guidance. Updated numerical weather prediction runs and official observations tomorrow will provide the key data for market resolution.