The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes underpins trader consensus against occurrence before 2027. USGS records show only five such events globally since 1900, with the most recent in 2011, consistent with paleoseismic estimates of one to three per century and multicentury recurrence intervals on major subduction zones. Ongoing monitoring reveals typical seismic rates, including a magnitude 8.8 event in Kamchatka in 2025, without indicators of imminent megathrust rupture. While forecast uncertainty exists around potential clustering or undetected strain accumulation on faults like Cascadia, current data and historical patterns indicate low near-term probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$195,693 交易量
$195,693 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$195,693 交易量
$195,693 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes underpins trader consensus against occurrence before 2027. USGS records show only five such events globally since 1900, with the most recent in 2011, consistent with paleoseismic estimates of one to three per century and multicentury recurrence intervals on major subduction zones. Ongoing monitoring reveals typical seismic rates, including a magnitude 8.8 event in Kamchatka in 2025, without indicators of imminent megathrust rupture. While forecast uncertainty exists around potential clustering or undetected strain accumulation on faults like Cascadia, current data and historical patterns indicate low near-term probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$195,693结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes underpins trader consensus against occurrence before 2027. USGS records show only five such events globally since 1900, with the most recent in 2011, consistent with paleoseismic estimates of one to three per century and multicentury recurrence intervals on major subduction zones. Ongoing monitoring reveals typical seismic rates, including a magnitude 8.8 event in Kamchatka in 2025, without indicators of imminent megathrust rupture. While forecast uncertainty exists around potential clustering or undetected strain accumulation on faults like Cascadia, current data and historical patterns indicate low near-term probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$195,693结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes underpins trader consensus against occurrence before 2027. USGS records show only five such events globally since 1900, with the most recent in 2011, consistent with paleoseismic estimates of one to three per century and multicentury recurrence intervals on major subduction zones. Ongoing monitoring reveals typical seismic rates, including a magnitude 8.8 event in Kamchatka in 2025, without indicators of imminent megathrust rupture. While forecast uncertainty exists around potential clustering or undetected strain accumulation on faults like Cascadia, current data and historical patterns indicate low near-term probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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