Current ensemble forecasts from NOAA models indicate Miami’s overnight low on June 2 will most likely settle in the upper 70s, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 76–79 °F outcomes. Early June’s subtropical air mass, high humidity, and light winds limit radiative cooling overnight, while scattered cloud cover and typical sea-breeze patterns add minor variability that separates the closely matched bins. This range matches climatological normals of 76–78 °F and recent National Weather Service guidance showing no cold front or anomalous cooling. Traders are therefore pricing modest uncertainty in the precise minimum rather than a broad shift in conditions.